Bitcoin Price Thread

SunTrader said:
https://www.peterlbrandt.com/does-history-make-a-case-that-bitcoin-has-topped/

Does history make a case that Bitcoin has topped?
April 26, 2024/by Peter Brandt
Judge for yourself
It’s called Exponential Decay — and it describes Bitcoin

I hate being the bearer of bad news, but data are data.

The fact is that the bull market cycles in Bitcoin have lost a tremendous amount of thrust over the years. You may like the story of this data or not — but you will have to deal with it (or at least account for it, adjust for it or just plain ignore it). In fact, I don’t like the Exponential Decay occurring in Bitcoin — Bitcoin is one of my personal largest investment positions.

There have been four major bull cycles in Bitcoin, with the current advance the fifth major bull cycle [the advance from cycle low to cycle high shown in brackets].

  1. Dec 21, 2009 to Jun 6, 2011 [3,191X advance]
  2. Nov 14, 2011 to Nov 25, 2013 [572X advance]
  3. Aug 17, 2015 to Dec 18, 2017 [ 122X advance]
  4. Dec 10, 2018 to Nov 8, 2021 [ 22X advance]
  5. Nov 21, 2022 to xxx x,, yyyy [high so far is $73,835 registered on Mar 14, 2024]
Now, here is where Exponential Decay is showing its ugly head.

  • The magnitude of the 2011-2013 was approx. 20% of the 2009-2011 cycle
  • The magnitude of the 2015-2017 was approx. 20% of the 2011-2013 cycle
  • The magnitude of the 2018-2021 was approx. 20% of the 2015-2017 cycle
Worded another way, 80% of the exponential energy of each successful bull market cycle has been lost.

Exponential-Decaly-BTC.png


Applied forward, this would indicate that the current bull cycle will experience an an exponential advance of approximately 4.5X or so (80% of the 22X of the 2018-2021 cycle).

Taking a low for the current cycle of $15,473 projects a high for this cycle of $72,723 — guess what — a price that has already been reached.

Well, you will ask, what about the halving? Prices have exploded upwards after every previous halving. And that may happen again.

But for now we need to deal with the fact of Exponential Decay. It has happened. It is real. You may not want to believe it, but I place a 25% chance that Bitcoin has already topped for this cycle.

If Bitcoin has topped, what’s next you might ask. Of course I have no clue. But, if Bitcoin has topped I would expect a decline back to the mid-$30s, or the 2021 lows. From a classical charting point of view, such a decline is the most bullish thing that could happen from a long-term view. If you want to see an example of such a chart structure, look at the Gold chart from Aug 2020 to Mar 2024.

BTCUSD_2024-04-26_11-18-48-1300x721.png


Do I believe the analysis just presented? I don’t want to, but the data speak for itself.

End
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Written to ruffle feathers.

His price prediction based on exponential decay has been realized BEFORE the halving. I reason that he’s comparing apples to oranges.
 
SunTrader said:
https://www.peterlbrandt.com/does-history-make-a-case-that-bitcoin-has-topped/

Does history make a case that Bitcoin has topped?
April 26, 2024/by Peter Brandt
Judge for yourself
It’s called Exponential Decay — and it describes Bitcoin

I hate being the bearer of bad news, but data are data.

The fact is that the bull market cycles in Bitcoin have lost a tremendous amount of thrust over the years. You may like the story of this data or not — but you will have to deal with it (or at least account for it, adjust for it or just plain ignore it). In fact, I don’t like the Exponential Decay occurring in Bitcoin — Bitcoin is one of my personal largest investment positions.

There have been four major bull cycles in Bitcoin, with the current advance the fifth major bull cycle [the advance from cycle low to cycle high shown in brackets].

  1. Dec 21, 2009 to Jun 6, 2011 [3,191X advance]
  2. Nov 14, 2011 to Nov 25, 2013 [572X advance]
  3. Aug 17, 2015 to Dec 18, 2017 [ 122X advance]
  4. Dec 10, 2018 to Nov 8, 2021 [ 22X advance]
  5. Nov 21, 2022 to xxx x,, yyyy [high so far is $73,835 registered on Mar 14, 2024]
Now, here is where Exponential Decay is showing its ugly head.

  • The magnitude of the 2011-2013 was approx. 20% of the 2009-2011 cycle
  • The magnitude of the 2015-2017 was approx. 20% of the 2011-2013 cycle
  • The magnitude of the 2018-2021 was approx. 20% of the 2015-2017 cycle
Worded another way, 80% of the exponential energy of each successful bull market cycle has been lost.

Exponential-Decaly-BTC.png


Applied forward, this would indicate that the current bull cycle will experience an an exponential advance of approximately 4.5X or so (80% of the 22X of the 2018-2021 cycle).

Taking a low for the current cycle of $15,473 projects a high for this cycle of $72,723 — guess what — a price that has already been reached.

Well, you will ask, what about the halving? Prices have exploded upwards after every previous halving. And that may happen again.

But for now we need to deal with the fact of Exponential Decay. It has happened. It is real. You may not want to believe it, but I place a 25% chance that Bitcoin has already topped for this cycle.

If Bitcoin has topped, what’s next you might ask. Of course I have no clue. But, if Bitcoin has topped I would expect a decline back to the mid-$30s, or the 2021 lows. From a classical charting point of view, such a decline is the most bullish thing that could happen from a long-term view. If you want to see an example of such a chart structure, look at the Gold chart from Aug 2020 to Mar 2024.

BTCUSD_2024-04-26_11-18-48-1300x721.png


Do I believe the analysis just presented? I don’t want to, but the data speak for itself.

End
More...

He's put forward a compelling argument.

Will be interesting to see how it plays out.
 
Even where I work, I see cis-white-males now lying about their sexuality and stating they are gay (or bisexual if married to a female), just so they don't have to worry so much about their jobs due to DEI quotas and other penalizations.

Now just think about that for a minute. All this wokenomics has gone rapid-fire after being pushed the last few years by Blackrock's Woke ESG indexing.

Mr. Fink even brags about this, and having the power to FORCE society to change. If he has the power to do this in such a short amount of time, imagine the outcome of Bitcoin since he has stated clearly it's the best performing asset and the future...

Betting against Fink is like betting against the Fed. There are many who tried to fight the fed, and look at where that got them.
 
$1M is possible, but I could also state that aliens landing on Earth is also possible. How likely is bitcoin to go there if the world is adapting to gold-backed BRICs by that time? This would cut a big leg out from under Bitcoin.

Now, not to get ahead of ourselves, I'm not saying that it would be fully legit. Let's just say... I can easily imagine a few scenarios where those eastern dictators will find it irresistible to secretly start to dilute some of the world's currency...
 
long said:
It all depends on where you start the tape measure. Using 2021 is cherry picking.
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I’m measuring peak-to-peak. ‘Cherry-picking’ would be doing literally anything else.

From the 2021 peak to the recent peak (which may be exceeded next week, years from now, or never) BTC has seen a far greater DD and a far weaker net advance than a variety of boring old-line assets - including gold. That’s relative weakness, and there’s nothing subjective or open to interpretation about it.
 
Specterx said:
I’m measuring peak-to-peak. ‘Cherry-picking’ would be doing literally anything else.

From the 2021 peak to the recent peak (which may be exceeded next week, years from now, or never) BTC has seen a far greater DD and a far weaker net advance than a variety of boring old-line assets - including gold. That’s relative weakness, and there’s nothing subjective or open to interpretation about it.
More...
Move your yardstick 3 months in either direction and back to ~100% returns to date
 
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