From what I've learned about all the different BTC cycles, and the fact that price always runs higher after the halving, the one stat that isn't the same is that the halving always happened at much lower prices in relation to the ATH. This time around, we already poked it. So I think there is a good chance the cycle theory is broken, but I can't guess yet how it plays out. I think its likely that we don't even hit 100k because everything will crash around us, or we go to 1M much faster, and don't have the 80% drawdown.
I'm an avid follower of Peter and I watch most of his videos, this one I saw yesterday
Peter is following me on Twitter, even though I've rarely posted anything, all I do is click like on posts that I think are good and his Twitter postings are very good so I click most of them
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This cycle is different than previous cycles as bitcoin actually went lower than previous ath of previous cycle
The low for the 2014-16 bear market was ~$150, ath was $1,200 ($1400 on some exchanges)
The low for the 2017-19 bear market was ~$3,200, ath was
$20,000 (or a little lower)
The low for the 2022-23 bear market was ~$14,500, ath was $69,xxx
The low was breached due to relentless selling from the liquidations caused by unwinding and bankruptcies of FTX, BlockFi, Celsius, Voyager, Genesis, and all the leveraged traders and scared off holders
The high might have been suppressed by straight out bad actors like FTX selling bitcoins they do not own, and the leveraged TradFi big traders, like 3AC, all the TradFi arbitrage "delta-neutral" hedged players, Celsius, Genesis, BlockFi
Our interest is on the previous ath, if the actual top from previous cycle was $150k (wag), then btc trading at $60k right before the halving is about right, and the top for this cycle could be $400k-700k
Bitcoin never had this Wall Street money flow buyer, bitcoin spot etf's, in past cycles, and now HK also has it, during the time the Fed is about to embark on another massive printing of money... $1M/btc is not impossible during this cycle
I am very excited for this halving. I think there are a lot of (new) investors waiting to buy more or buy for the first time, after the halving is completed successfully
Very reasonable that they think there could be a risk of a technical problem with the Bitcoin halving process
I also had the same doubts in the past halving, but later on read what other OG bitcoiners have said and even shown the code section on the halving, that the code is already finished and is running now.... it is only waiting for the blockheight to be reached
Every 10 minutes (when a block is mined), the whole bitcoin supply is being audited and updated at the same time
It starts with the mempool transactions that are about to be confirmed on the block
this is why parameter settings like RBF (replace by fee) is an important flag as there is technically 2 mempool transactions that are in conflict and about to execute a double-spend attack on the Bitcoin circulating supply and only 1 of them can be included by the miner or it will be rejected and the miner possibly losing the block to another miner even if the hash met the target difficulty
tl;dr, Bitcoin monetary supply is audited every ~10 minutes, the Fed has never been audited
so let's not be so damn pretentious about each other's wealth status. Those who boasts about one's wealth never impressed me and you don't either
Touched a nerve, how about I boast of how poor I am, I own zero real estate, renters even now, I do not own a fancy car, no gold chains (only inherited ones stored in a safe), my wedding band is silver, I have not bought a pair of shoes in over a year, the most expensive shoes I've ever owned cost about $100, never owned a suit, don't even have a coat now, but I did in the past for special occasions like funerals or weddings, last pair of buttoned down shirt I bought was over 5 years ago, never paid more than $100, pairs of pants purchased recently was less than $35 each, my cell phone is over 3 years old Android, I don't own an expensive watch, only a smart watch, I like to wear shirts with a collar, wife buys them online she finds good sales, A&F or Lacoste type, I tell her don't pay more than $75, my laptop is over 2 years old, my desktop (nuc) is over 4 years old, I have no gaming console, I do have an ultra-wide 49" monitor, good for shitposting on ET,
I also wish you the best!
