Bitcoin Price Thread

[johnarb]

John, in all fairness, Bitcoin rebounded because the Iranians declared that their bombing campaign had been "concluded". Had the Iranians continued firing their drones and rockets, I wouldn't be so sure where Bitcoin would be trading.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1779269993043022053

In 45 minutes, bitcoin crashed over $6k, are you saying the announcement came after 45 minutes?

Why did bitcoin stop crashing after 45 minutes and was trading $2k higher?

A market that has no circuit breaker and highly liquid, just stopped crashing after 45 minutes of the bombing and bounced back $2k higher

It is not a mystery to all bitcoiners, but I digress...

 

[schizo]

In 45 minutes, bitcoin crashed over $6k, are you saying the announcement came after 45 minutes?

Why did bitcoin stop crashing and after 45 minutes and was trading $2k higher?

A market that has no circuit breaker and highly liquid, just stopped crashing after 45 minutes of the bombing and bounced back $2k higher

It is not a mystery to all bitcoiners, but I digress...


View attachment 338290

John, the twit was posted at 03:06 PM (PST). Now check where I've marked the time on the chart. You will see that the price shot up shortly afterward. You would be a fool to think this is just a mere coincidence.

 

[johnarb]

John, the twit was posted at 03:06 PM. Now check where I've marked the time on the chart. You will see that the price shot up shortly afterward. You would be a fool to think this is just a mere coincidence.

View attachment 338292

https://twitter.com/x/status/1779269993043022053

I don't get the time references that you're posting since I'm on a different time zone

tbf, I did not care to follow the Iran news, it's all distractions and noise, but you would not get it

From memory, the crash to $60k happened 24 hours ago, you would know, you were actively posting charts here, I'm going to assume that was the start of the Iranian bombings

Then your charts STOPPED after it bounced $2-3k was that when the Iran announcement happened?

All these funnymentals coming from you is rather ironic, you're overfitting the funnymentals narrative to your charts now, how laughable is that

 

[schizo]

I don't get the time references that you're posting since I'm on a different time zone

I've just modified the above post with a screenie.

My point is that BTC stopped dropping once the Iranians declared that they were done bombing. It didn't stop just because.

 

[NoahA]

And I'm in Asia now with my family, we can easily pack up and get on the next flight to another country, should this place become unsafe for us

This is one of the things I think about as well. I used to always think it would be nice to have a house paid off and this would bring comfort and security. But the way the world is going these days, mobility is even more important. If you have the funds to rent, which is more expensive though than a paid off house since that will only incur property taxes and maintenance fees, you are far more free. Trying to unload an asset during rising tensions will be impossible. I have a friend in Hong Kong and who knows what can happen there. All those million dollar condos can very quickly lose value depending on geo-politics, or they can even be taken away, or you might need to flee one day without the ability to take the asset value with you. And of course never mind that I'm sure RE will continue to lose value about BTC. So now I do put a high value on liquid wealth.

 

[johnarb]

I've just modified the above post with a screenie.

My point is that BTC stopped dropping once the Iranians declared that they were done bombing. It didn't stop just because.

Fair, I'm looking at your screenie and still do not understand why bitcoin stopped at $60,xxx and bounced $2-3k

It SHOULD HAVE continued crashing to $50k level and even $40k, there was no other market that was OPEN that asset owners could have sold with as much liquidity

------------

Without any charts, I am making a prediction that bitcoin price will be above $75k in 6-10 days

My guess is that a lot of "newcomers" and potential buyers are waiting for the completion of the bitcoin halving before they buy more to make sure there are no technical issues

Hopefully on 4/20, but it might happen on 4/19, the network is coming in hot, too many miners adding computing power ahead of the halving (which makes sense)

 

[schizo]

Fair, I'm looking at your screenie and still do not understand why bitcoin stopped at $60,xxx and bounced $2-3k

It SHOULD HAVE continued crashing to $50k level and even $40k, there was no other market that was OPEN that asset owners could have sold with as much liquidity

Do you mean this?

Dude, I know you're smarter than this. The market doesn't just fall forever. Even in a vicious bear market free fall, there will be momentary stalls where it will take a breather. They usually happen around major round numbers like 60K, 70k, etc.

Yes, BTC bounced back up from 61K to 63K. But considering how much it dropped and how fast (from 67K to 61K in just 30 minutes), this quick snap is not anything unnatural. Also it's worth noting it didn't reverse. It chopped around. It went back down twice. It was only after the Iranians came out with the twit that BTC went up in earnest.

But if the Iranians were still firing bombs and drones at Israel, I would believe BTC would be much lower than 60K by now. Who knows where it would be. It's anybody's guess. So, in that sense, BTC is not immune to macro events and is indeed not a true safe haven.

 

[schizo]

the network is coming in hot, too many miners adding computing power ahead of the halving (which makes sense)

news.bitcoin.com
Miners Offload Bitcoin in Anticipation of Reward Halving, Says Cryptoquant – Mining Bitcoin News

Data from Cryptoquant indicates that bitcoin miners have been offloading their assets in anticipation of the upcoming Bitcoin network halving, slated to take place in two weeks. Cryptoquant highlighted a peak in daily sales to over-the-counter (OTC) trading desks, a figure unmatched since the summer of 2023.

Record Sales to OTC Desks Mark Bitcoin Miners’ Prep for Reward Cut
Currently, at a block height of 837,984, there are precisely 2,016 blocks remaining until the forthcoming Bitcoin block halving event, which will reduce the reward from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC. Cryptoquant, in a report shared on the social media platform X last Friday, shed light on how bitcoin (BTC) miners will need to “innovate [and] improve” post-halving.

In examining revenue against hashprice, Cryptoquant’s analysts observed that despite daily revenues reaching new peaks, the miner hashprice has plummeted by 30% compared to levels before the last halving, indicating a decline in earnings per unit of computational work. The analysts also pointed out that BTC mining operations are currently divesting their bitcoin holdings in advance of the fourth halving event.

The researchers stated:

Some miners are selling more [bitcoin] before the halving. Daily sales to OTC desks hit 1.6K bitcoin in late March, the most since August 2023.

Moreover, the analysts highlight that declining transaction fees are intensifying the strain on bitcoin miners as the halving event approaches. In its recent mining analysis, Cryptoquant shed light on this predicament, revealing that miners are grappling with heightened competition and diminished fees in the lead-up to the reward reduction event. “Although the daily revenue collected by the entire bitcoin mining industry has reached record-high levels in 2024, bitcoin miners still face headwinds,” the research study details.

 

[johnarb]

But if the Iranians were still firing bombs and drones at Israel, I would believe BTC would be much lower than 60K by now. Who knows where it would be. It's anybody's guess. So, in that sense, BTC is not immune to macro events and is indeed not a true safe haven.

This funnymentals-maxi schizo is a new poster on ET, can you tell us how you were able to compromise his account?

And for that matter, are you now saying bitcoin is no longer going to $50k and $40k as you previously mentioned?

news.bitcoin.com
Miners Offload Bitcoin in Anticipation of Reward Halving, Says Cryptoquant – Mining Bitcoin News

Yes, bitcoin miners sell as much bitcoins as possible in order to raise funds to increase their computing power share of the network after the halving

Smaller or over extended miners will not survive a 50% paycut afterwards

you would not understand...

 

[schizo]

And for that matter, are you now saying bitcoin is no longer going to $50k and $40k as you previously mentioned?

And you're not a stranger yourself when it comes to twisting other people's words.

This is what I previously wrote. So you interpret "not entirely impossible" as "certain that it will"? Man, you need to brush up on your english.

Oh, you conveniently forgot about my other prediction, that BTC will drop to 60K. Why?