Bitcoin Price Thread

llIHeroic said:
Glad we can discuss our differences in thought though. We both ought to continue to self-reflect, for example if BTC is not above $100K EoY and you're 90% conviction turned out to be wrong, hopefully there will be some adjustment of your beliefs and re-evaluation of future probabilities. And if it is above $100K EoY, in my case I will begin weighting these counter-narratives higher and I will have to adopt a new dominant view of BTC if it breaks $250K soon.
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I think you're very good with numbers and also with Traditional Finance metrics

When NoahA and I talk about smart Bitcoiners, it's people like Preston Pysh who are able to articulate the value proposition of Bitcoin using TradFi metrics

Other smart people use other metrics, like hash rates which are going nuclear but that does not make sense to Wall Street

You're more concerned with NGU (number go up) price technology of Bitcoin and for sure it's a valid TradFi metric, higher price brings in more adoption

I think your high time preference is a function of fiat philosophy, but it's a non-issue during this period of the 4-year cycle of Bitcoin, $100k and $250k, notwithstanding

When you have some free time, perhaps you can watch the video as it speaks your TradFi Quantitative Analysis language, you might be able to watch it in 1.5x or 1.75x speed

We see these quantitative breakdown from Bitcoiners but they are not countered or contradicted as false by non-believers of Bitcoin

 
johnarb said:
you might be able to watch it in 1.5x or 1.75x speed
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I watch most videos at 2x, and especially WBD episodes.

johnarb said:
When NoahA and I talk about smart Bitcoiners, it's people like Preston Pysh who are able to articulate the value proposition of Bitcoin using TradFi metrics
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Its crazy to hear him say that he thinks you only need a 1% allocation in order to protect your purchasing power. (ie. to protect $100k of USD, you need $1K of BTC) The way his face looks when he says it, he is so damn sure.

Crazy thing happened to me. So on the ETF launch day, I literally timed the top by selling some BITX, a 2x leveraged bitcoin ETF. No big deal, it was just over $2k in profits. But what I didn't do was sell out the core position of a sport Canadian bitcoin ETF. Was very worried about it going higher on launch day. So stupid me decides to sell it after a drop down to 40k, and although I'm aggressively adding back in now, I'm still not at my full position, and BTC is of course 5-10% higher. I was hoping to scale in lower, and it just keeps running.

Now I am happy to rotate into the new ETFs given that the fees are much much lower, and I also wanted to invest in the Bitwise ETF since they are giving 10% profits to coders working on Bitcoin. But the plan is also to diversify via maybe the top 3 ETFs. I'm not sure what happens in case of fuck-up by any of these funds, or what happens if their custodian, Coinbase, fucks up. So its still a risk. But sats in cold storage I will just hold of years, but these ETFs I'd like to swing trade a bit. But so far, I'm not off to a good start since I'm already down about 5%.

Lots of people are waiting for lower prices, and even Arthur is waiting for shit to hit the fan via commercial real estate blowup and subsequent bank failures. So I keep adding slowly, and still have maybe 1/3 more left to get back to full position, but I'd really like a dip below 40k again. Its crazy to have the fear of waking up and seeing that god candle print without me having max exposure.

I remember years ago seeing that family on TV that sold everything to buy bitcoin and thinking how dumb/risky that was. And here I am today, with bitcoin 10x higher, and I'm going through the same process they went through. And to think, 95% of the people out there are still left to get on the train!
 
Said at the time SEC ruling was released, it was sell on the news.

Yup.

And into resistance ... and into 61.8% fib ratio retracement level.

! BTC sell the news they say.png


Making, I believe, Wave 3 of 5 ... only so far.
 
Tokenz said:
You're talking way too early man.
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naa i don't think so. This is it. CEO of the biggest money management firm is endorsing Bitcoin.

That super big management firm Franklin Templeton also put laser eyes on their twitter profile.

The ETF has been approved.

It doesn't get better than this. How could we top that? Top tier countries are not going to adopt Bitcoin, more so they might ban it. Mining ban is a possibility in Europe.

Then you also have possibility of Tether (in best case) operating illegaly, in worst case being an unbacked ponzi scheme.

DoJ has billions of $ of Bitcoin to sell. Mt Gox. will eventually distribute the coins (mt. gox is pure sell pressure)....

Michael Saylor is sitting on large unrealized profits, but there is no liquidity to exit. He pumped his own bags. If he tries to sell, he is already at a loss.

It's over. Pack your bags over the coming weeks.

There is limited liquidity available to cash in on Bitcoins... that's why usually when bitcoin has topped, the altcoins go bonanza causing retail to FOMO buy the top. Then it all crashes.
 
orbit23 said:
naa i don't think so. This is it. CEO of the biggest money management firm is endorsing Bitcoin.

That super big management firm Franklin Templeton also put laser eyes on their twitter profile.

The ETF has been approved.

It doesn't get better than this. How could we top that? Top tier countries are not going to adopt Bitcoin, more so they might ban it. Mining ban is a possibility in Europe.

Then you also have possibility of Tether (in best case) operating illegaly, in worst case being an unbacked ponzi scheme.

DoJ has billions of $ of Bitcoin to sell. Mt Gox. will eventually distribute the coins (mt. gox is pure sell pressure)....

Michael Saylor is sitting on large unrealized profits, but there is no liquidity to exit. He pumped his own bags. If he tries to sell, he is already at a loss.

It's over. Pack your bags over the coming weeks.

There is limited liquidity available to cash in on Bitcoins... that's why usually when bitcoin has topped, the altcoins go bonanza causing retail to FOMO buy the top. Then it all crashes.
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Soooo...youre a savvy trader,youve kept an eye on the headwinds,youve cashed in over the last 12 months to the upside but youre out now and looking for a level to short at?

Just want to make sure I've got it right?

Youve made 130% profit this year on BTC and now looking to supercharge your profits by making a short play?
 
semperfrosty said:
Soooo...youre a savvy trader,youve kept an eye on the headwinds,youve cashed in over the last 12 months to the upside but youre out now and looking for a level to short at?

Just want to make sure I've got it right?

Youve made 130% profit this year on BTC and now looking to supercharge your profits by making a short play?
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I've never said that i traded it perfectly :( But i did call it pretty well and you can check the posts.

Even going 2yrs back when we were in the 50s i told to just sell, meanwhile johnarb was talking about some theory of a whale named "rick astley" accumulating bitcoins("never gonna give them up"), lol.


It looks very obvious at this point. The reward is low, the risk is high. Not worth it anymore.

Most who bought are not some sort of geniuses, but bought at the right time and had the right belief and conviction.


RnhKhws.png
 
orbit23 said:
Even going 2yrs back when we were in the 50s i told to just sell, meanwhile johnarb was talking about some theory of a whale named "rick astley" accumulating bitcoins("never gonna give them up"), lol.

It looks very obvious at this point. The reward is low, the risk is high. Not worth it anymore.
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Bitcoin is for long term hold, don't worry about $50-something thousand for bitcoin price, bitcoin is going much higher before the eoy

and $1M and higher per bitcoin will make every bitcoin holder happy in the future
 
johnarb said:
Bitcoin is for long term hold, don't worry about $50-something thousand for bitcoin price, bitcoin is going much higher before the eoy

and $1M and higher per bitcoin will make every bitcoin holder happy in the future
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Personally, I don't have much faith that bitcoin will one day be worth $1M. But I'm not good at predicting, although I sometimes trade on Binance. However, if one day bitcoin will be worth 1 million, I will be happy too :)

Hello everyone!
 
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