Bitcoin Price Thread

[deaddog]

Excellent discipline. I just meant that lets say you sell at 69k, assuming there is a double top, and it instead blasts through this price. Then you of course don't want to buy, as it could be a fakeout, and then you wait as you see it cross 80k and 90k. At this point, some major news comes in about adoption by either some other country or corporation, etc, and well, now you're convinced it won't retrace, so you are forced to buy in at 90k. Of course not forced, but if you know you wanted it long term since you're convinced its going to 1 million, 90k is still not bad. But if you only made 20k on your win, but now have to pay 20k higher than where you sold, there go all your profits.

Clearly this probably won't apply to you if you are so diligent with your entries, but I really do think there will come a day where buying interest will overwhelm exchanges and they might even be unwilling to quote prices. I realize that exchanges work on the principle that matches buyers and sellers, but with fast moving prices, I'm sure exchanges take on some risk as well. Its like a money maker who sells someone a call, and then has to buy the stock in order to cover this position. Some exchanges might not be able to match the buy and sell orders nearly as well when they know they will have to deal with supplying the actual bitcoin for withdrawl. FTX is of course the best example. 80k bitcoins on their books, and none in their vault.

I can see the difference in our thinking. You are dealing with what if and I try to deal with what's happening now. I don't look at what if I had bought at 15k, because I didn't and there is nothing I can do about the past. If I don't but any BTC and it goes to a million, I haven't lost any money. There are all sorts of opportunities I have missed over my life, stocks I didn't buy, girls I never dated, businesses I didn't start. I can't lose sleep over any of them.

The market doesn't know where I'm buying. As long as the market trends in my direction I have the opportunity to make money. I still deal in fiat, because that's what every thing I buy is priced in. BTC is priced in fiat. If it goes to a million and I sell then I'll have a million dollars not a bitcoin. Much easier to spend and it sounds more impressive, even though they might have the same value.

As for exchanges my belief is that they don't trade in BTC, they match buyers and sellers. They don't hold BTC that can be withdrawn by individuals. (They may have a trading desk to take advantage of volatility)
But if the selling dries up and there is a demand for BTC the price will rise. Right now there seems to be a lot of suppy at 31K or so, as when price gets there the rise seems to stop.
I don't know enough about it but with the transparency blockchain is supposed to have it should be possible to figure out where the suppy is coming from.

You never know why traders/investors do what they do. You might have a theory of what they should do, but until they actually do something you just don't know. I have no idea why BTC went from 60k to 15k then back to 30k. Supply and demand is the easiest answer. Or it could be the smart money is accumulating, making up, distributing and marking down then repeating. Now I have to figure out if the consolidation over the last 4 months was accumulation or distrbution.

 

[NoahA]

I'm not so sure about the last part.

I will watch the video later today, but upon scanning the links you provided, all I see is reference to price manipulation. None of this is about manipulating the supply.

Plus, this isn't like gold. Never mind the paper manipulation with multiples of gold paper backing up actual physical gold, but if the price rises dramatically, you can bet that more supply will come online. At $3k or $4k gold price, more mines will come online to increase supply. With bitcion, this will be impossible. The issuance schedule is fixed, and only higher prices will cause people to sell. There really is no other asset that provides these same properties.

 

[NoahA]

I can see the difference in our thinking

My thinking is a bit of a problem for my day trading, so I do for sure have issues here. But your thought process is of course something to aspire to.

As for exchanges my belief is that they don't trade in BTC, they match buyers and sellers. They don't hold BTC that can be withdrawn by individuals.

This is where it gets very murky. Sure, many exchanges I'm sure just match buyers and sellers, but buyers eventually do withdraw. Also, you don't really need BTC in your account to trade the USD/BTC pair. You simply need margin. If I deposit 30k USD into my account and I buy 1 bitcoin, perhaps I buy from someone who has 1 bitcoin in their account. But what if they don't? What if they only have other assets but decided to do the trade.... hence a short position? Then I withdrawn my 1 bitcoin, and the exchange has to somehow provide it to me. They will of course have a bunch in their reserves, but they need to control their inventory. I imagine the day will come where bitcoin is going up so fast that the employees decide to grab whatever the company has left.

The miners of course in some way have relationships with exchanges I'm sure, but they also apparently don't want to sell and instead finance operations with debt. So its all very complex, and I can't pretend to understand, but I do know that because bitcoin can't be faked if you have your own keys, one day, this will lead to fireworks.

Look at how much manipulation there is in the traditional system. They create more paper IOU's for precious metals, or they even cancel trades they don't like, like at the LME, London Metal Exchange. A supply shock for bitcoin will not be able to be fixed in the traditional ways.

Now I have to figure out if the consolidation over the last 4 months was accumulation or distrbution.

I'm honestly hoping for distribution. I would love a return to 25k, 20k, or even 15k. It all means more bitcoin in my wallet for the future fireworks.

 

[The_Krakenite]

In Saylors's defence, Bitcoin is either going infinite, or to zero. It seems there could be some truth to that. In any event, using that concept, I would assume for derivatives traders, going LONG a Straddle will profit in either outcome

• The bears keep insisting it will hit zero any day now (goal posts keep getting moved).
• ARKK fans keep insisting it will hit a million any day now (goal posts keep getting moved).

 

[deaddog]

This is where it gets very murky. Sure, many exchanges I'm sure just match buyers and sellers, but buyers eventually do withdraw.

Ya, this is where I get confused. Fot stocks I have a broker. When I want to buy a stock I put the order in with the broker who routes it to an exchange where it is filled. The stock is then held in my account with the broker, not with the exchange.

Back in the day I could get the broker to issue the share certificates to me and I would hold them at home or in a safety deposit box. I guess this is similar to holding BTC in a private wallet.

I have to be concerned with my broker commiting fraud or going broke but there is government regulations and oversite and holdings are guaranteed. I don't feel much risk leaving my stocks with the broker.

It doesn't matter if the exchange goes belly up. The stocks are held at the broker.

Now I have a crypto account with an exchange here in Canada. The spread is 1%; so to my way of thinking it's not good for trading as I start every trade 2% in the hole. I'm using ETFs as a proxy for BTC but that has its disadvantages in that I can only trade during RTHs. A sudden move in BTC overnight or over a weekend could leave me with a bigger loss than I planned for.

What is your plan? You are waiting for BTC to decrease in price so you can load up. At what point do you start buying if the price increases? How long do you wait before buying if the price decreases?

 

[NoahA]

Ya, this is where I get confused. Fot stocks I have a broker. When I want to buy a stock I put the order in with the broker who routes it to an exchange where it is filled. The stock is then held in my account with the broker, not with the exchange.

Back in the day I could get the broker to issue the share certificates to me and I would hold them at home or in a safety deposit box. I guess this is similar to holding BTC in a private wallet.

I have to be concerned with my broker commiting fraud or going broke but there is government regulations and oversite and holdings are guaranteed. I don't feel much risk leaving my stocks with the broker.

It doesn't matter if the exchange goes belly up. The stocks are held at the broker.

Now I have a crypto account with an exchange here in Canada. The spread is 1%; so to my way of thinking it's not good for trading as I start every trade 2% in the hole. I'm using ETFs as a proxy for BTC but that has its disadvantages in that I can only trade during RTHs. A sudden move in BTC overnight or over a weekend could leave me with a bigger loss than I planned for.

What is your plan? You are waiting for BTC to decrease in price so you can load up. At what point do you start buying if the price increases? How long do you wait before buying if the price decreases?

Yes, you are right that stocks will be protected in the brokerage account. The funny thing about the paper ones is that you still need someone to honor it. Heck, even with your brokerage account, you still need someone to make you whole. Don't get me wrong, I don't expect the government of Canada to screw us over, but what if they did want to confiscate shares for the classic excuse of "monetary stability" or heaven forbid "anti terrorism" laws or some bullshit like this.

In these cases, you need both the permission to buy or sell your shares, plus you need help in getting them back. With bitcoin, if you have the keys, you are 100% in control. I even run my own node, so any transaction I need to do, I plug in straight to the network. Imagine buying shares without a broker. You are literally standing on the exchange floor and with just your hands able to buy and sell from other people.

Now don't get me wrong, I don't expect things to get this dystopian in Canada, but you can't rule it out. The frozen accounts of supports of the truckers was a huge wake up call. Imagine thinking you have a million dollars in shares, and you wake up one day to learn that the government has to seize half of them.

Now I will say that I also have shares in the bitcoin ETF. Its a risk, but for me, also diversification in case somehow I lose my actual coins. Also, in a TFSA, those gains will be tax free, so huge benefit. But as you say, only trading during RTH, and even though I thought some of these were insured, I worry that one day, the fund will say they lost the keys to the coins, and it drops to zero. Not sure what protection there will there.

What is your plan? You are waiting for BTC to decrease in price so you can load up. At what point do you start buying if the price increases? How long do you wait before buying if the price decreases?

I'm hoping for a fast drop honestly. I want a flush out. I'm hoping by fall the equity markets are crashing and drag bitcoin down with it. Every week I keep adding, and I'm so mad for not adding when price was around 16k. Now I'm buying higher. Sure its safer, cause the trend seems up, but the price is much worse. I was hoping for 10k, hence why I backed off buying in Jan and Feb. Now I'm hoping for sub 20k, but even that I doubt. The worst scenario would be a rise up to 40k, so I'm averaging in higher, and then a drop down again, when I have no more money to buy.

 

[deaddog]

Now don't get me wrong, I don't expect things to get this dystopian in Canada, but you can't rule it out. The frozen accounts of supports of the truckers was a huge wake up call. Imagine thinking you have a million dollars in shares, and you wake up one day to learn that the government has to seize half of them.

Right that was a wake up call as to how much power the government has.

Now I will say that I also have shares in the bitcoin ETF. Its a risk, but for me, also diversification in case somehow I lose my actual coins. Also, in a TFSA, those gains will be tax free, so huge benefit. But as you say, only trading during RTH, and even though I thought some of these were insured, I worry that one day, the fund will say they lost the keys to the coins, and it drops to zero. Not sure what protection there will there.

Probably no protection. I guess thats why you diversify into other assets.

I'm hoping for a fast drop honestly. I want a flush out. I'm hoping by fall the equity markets are crashing and drag bitcoin down with it. Every week I keep adding, and I'm so mad for not adding when price was around 16k. Now I'm buying higher. Sure its safer, cause the trend seems up, but the price is much worse. I was hoping for 10k, hence why I backed off buying in Jan and Feb. Now I'm hoping for sub 20k, but even that I doubt. The worst scenario would be a rise up to 40k, so I'm averaging in higher, and then a drop down again, when I have no more money to buy.

I mostly start with a small position and scale in as the price increases. With a small position my stop loss keeps the loss small. As price increases I add to the position while keeping the risk small. By the third add if my stop gets hit I'll usually walk away with a small profit.

I never average down. That has the possibility of turning into a big loss or tying up capital for a long time, neither result I look forward to.

 

[themickey]

Now I have a crypto account with an exchange here in Canada. The spread is 1%; so to my way of thinking it's not good for trading as I start every trade 2% in the hole. I'm using ETFs as a proxy for BTC but that has its disadvantages in that I can only trade during RTHs. A sudden move in BTC overnight or over a weekend could leave me with a bigger loss than I planned for.

There's also another issue.
BITO which is the largest Bitcoin ETF, it began its life exactly tracking Bitcoin, but the last few months it began slipping.

Bitcoin black, BITO red.

 

[NoahA]

I mostly start with a small position and scale in as the price increases. With a small position my stop loss keeps the loss small. As price increases I add to the position while keeping the risk small. By the third add if my stop gets hit I'll usually walk away with a small profit.

I never average down. That has the possibility of turning into a big loss or tying up capital for a long time, neither result I look forward to.

These all sound like excellent rules!

 

[johnarb]

These all sound like excellent rules!

Many plans sound good on paper but difficult to execute. Everyone has a plan until...

Buy low, sell high. Short high, cover low, yet most traders fail

As Ed48 has pointed out, bitcoin goes on cycles, 4 year cycles coinciding with the halvening

I've experienced 3 so far and I complete fucked up the first one and fumbled the 2nd one (didn't fuck up but didn't quit my job)

2013-2016 $100 (for me, it was actually much lower a few months before) to $1,200 then low of $150
2017-2019/20 $1000 to $20,000 to $3,500
2020-2023 $3,500 to $69,000 to $15,500

I'm doing ok with my family. Even if MW or shitheads on ET don't believe me, does not matter they don't pay my bills and living expenses

Has anyone on ET with a great trading plans have claimed or even shown they've made a lot of profits with their TRADING SKILLS on bitcoin?

deaddog has said he got stopped out a few times for losses trading bitcoin and judging by his whining post saying "does anyone know who's selling" when bitcoin took a dip from 31k to 25k he got stopped out again

Great planner, rosy trading setups, but $15k to $30k of bitcoin moved and all he has are stopped out trades

The ones on the early years of bitcoin threads here who hit it big, Peilthe... and Hoi were hodlers , not traders. They don't post anymore. Probably retired and has generational wealth