Bitcoin Price Thread

[themickey]

I have a huge amount of spare time and I spend it studying markets mostly, I'm up all hours of the day and night.
Gold and crypto imo are speculative.
Gold in particular has a reputation of being manipulated, mainly via derivatives I believe, as gold derivatives apparently swamp physical gold in size.
The story of gold, a store of value, imo is a myth, a convenient myth to sucker in suckers.

There is a mathmatical rythm to how markets cycle, a type rubberband machine, it is algo driven with humans corrupting it via fear and greed.

However, there is one thing I havent sussed yet, and may never.
There appears to be some smart money (insiders/manipulators?) who throw big money into and out at very tops and bottoms, I'm not sure if that is able to be calculated.

 

[johnarb]

If BTC were a store of value then countries that have crazy inflation like Turkey, Argentina, Venezuela, etc. would have a lot of flows from local currency and into BTC

All the places you mentioned plus Lebanon, in SE Asia, and many other places, they are going to crypto dollars (stablecoins)

Lyn Alden has discussed stablecoins extensively on some of her reports. One of Scott Melker's (YouTube) regular macro analyst, I think it's Mike McGlone has already talked about stablecoins being the killer app for crypto

And somewhere in this video, it was discussed that stablecoins is the fastest growing payment method in the biggest store

In due time, the ones who need it most will slowly move their long term savings to Bitcoin but the reality of every day life forces them to choose stablecoins as their crypto gateway

 

[semperfrosty]

Another way to look at it...

$10 invested 14 years ago compounding at 58% annual estimated, but calculated monthly = current price = $27,700

We seem to be coming out of the bottom of a four year cycle. So to compare apples to apples, assume we are coming out of the bottom of the next cycle four years from now. That puts the next near low swing at $267,000.

Now, assuming $267k is 70% off the all time high, that would put the next high at $890,000, or 12x the last high.

Let's say it takes a year to come back to from the ATH down to $267k.

To get to $890k over the next three years, we would need to expect 121% annual, compounding calculated monthly.

If we can expect that over the next year, we can expect BTC to be at $88,500, one year from now, almost double off a base value of $48,800.

Prolly nothin though.

I love being around smart people.

 

[virtusa]

I love being around smart people.

We have seen the past years many "smart people" predicting 50K,100K, 1MM or even more.
In hindsight it all appeared to be BS.

 

[SunTrader]

How many years decades did it it take for Gold @ $2000 to become a reality?

Meanwhile Bitcoin did hit 50k and was over 2/3rds of the way to 100k in a little over a decade of existence.

Even if it is all based on hype Bitcoin plainly has more of it than the shiny stuff, therefore more likely to attain such "crazy" targets sooner - as its short history shows.

 

[semperfrosty]

We have seen the past years many "smart people" predicting 50K,100K, 1MM or even more.
In hindsight it all appeared to be BS.

Hey Virt,

I realise its all very personal for you,and your determined that this investment idea fails,for whatever reason-you don't have a position in either direction.

For me,win lose or draw,I was showing appreciation for the math and insight that people shared.

 

[Frederick Foresight]

Another way to look at it...

$10 invested 14 years ago compounding at 58% annual estimated, but calculated monthly = current price = $27,700

We seem to be coming out of the bottom of a four year cycle. So to compare apples to apples, assume we are coming out of the bottom of the next cycle four years from now. That puts the next near low swing at $267,000.

Now, assuming $267k is 70% off the all time high, that would put the next high at $890,000, or 12x the last high.

Let's say it takes a year to come back to from the ATH down to $267k.

To get to $890k over the next three years, we would need to expect 121% annual, compounding calculated monthly.

If we can expect that over the next year, we can expect BTC to be at $88,500, one year from now, almost double off a base value of $48,800.

Prolly nothin though.

Reminds me of the definition of a calculator: an instrument where you input two or more seat-of-the-pants estimates, multiply or divide them or whatever, and get accuracy to the 6th decimal place.

 

[jbusse]

We have seen the past years many "smart people" predicting 50K,100K, 1MM or even more.
In hindsight it all appeared to be BS.

If a dozen years ago someone had described where we are today in terms of the Fed's $8 trillion balance sheet and the complete disregard for fiscal discipline among the executive and legislative branches of the U.S. government, I wouldn't have believed it. Something's got to give, and the past provides no reason for optimism that the U.S. government will figure things out.

 

[Frederick Foresight]

If a dozen years ago someone had described where we are today in terms of the Fed's $8 trillion balance sheet and the complete disregard for fiscal discipline among the executive and legislative branches of the U.S. government, I wouldn't have believed it. Something's got to give, and the past provides no reason for optimism that the U.S. government will figure things out.

And so Bitcoin is your salvation because...its enthusiasts promise you all kinds of riches? (Refer to previous extrapolations.)

 

[jbusse]

And so Bitcoin is your salvation because...its enthusiasts promise you all kinds of riches? (Refer to previous extrapolations.)

I'll be fine if my small allocation doesn't pan out. Caution is a good thing when it comes to uncertainty.

But the emperor truly has no clothes. I'm much more optimistic about bitcoin now at $28K than when it was at its all time highs because of what's gone on with inflation and the inability of the federal government to control spending. The powers that be inspire zero confidence, and the U.S. economy no longer generates the tax revenue needed to fund incompetence at the top. That $31.5T national debt is not going away.