Bitcoin Price Thread

[vanzandt]

Bitcoin is at $31,900
It's a buy.
Calling a bottom.
Give or take a few percent.

Reasoning?

Gen Y: Gen Y, or Millennials, were born between 1981 and 1994/6. They are currently between 25 and 40 years old (72.1 million in the U.S.) Gen Y.1 = 25-29 years old (around 31 million people in the U.S.) Gen Y.2 = 29-39 (around 42 million people in the U.S.)

$300 or $250 per kid.
Per month!!!

AT LEAST 35% of these people don't need that money.

Billions and billions of $'s/month of "mad money".

And where do you think they'll put it?
Hmmmm...

I guarantee ya... BTC and probably some of the others are gonna start climbing.

Get long BTC.
-vz

 

[themickey]

I guarantee ya... BTC and probably some of the others are gonna start climbing.

30,000 is a critical level imo and am watching that intently. I have no money at stake with BTC, but my hunch it will collapse under that level.
What is pushing my theory, there could be another couple of months or more of bearish stock market sentiment ahead (nothing dramatic yet) and BTC will struggle to get traction in terms of being bullish.

 

[johnarb]

30,000 is a critical level imo and am watching that intently. I have no money at stake with BTC, but my hunch it will collapse under that level.
What is pushing my theory, there could be another couple of months or more of bearish stock market sentiment ahead (nothing dramatic yet) and BTC will struggle to get traction in terms of being bullish.

I read "somewhere" that we are going back to over $50K in the next "few weeks"

 

[themickey]

I read "somewhere" that we are going back to over $50K in the next "few weeks"

Nothing would surprise after seeing the stock market bounce so hard since early 2020.
I'm reasonably confident sub 30,000 will not be without a fight were it to occur unless the whole stock market turns bearish, which imo it's not currently.

 

[johnarb]

Nothing would surprise after seeing the stock market bounce so hard since early 2020.
I'm reasonably confident sub 30,000 will not be without a fight were it to occur unless the whole stock market turns bearish, which imo it's not currently.

I think I'm going to go with vz on this and take a short term trade (long 3 btc) and hold for until end of August or if $50K hits, sell 2 btc's

This is a short term position separate from the crypto portfolio which has not changed for a couple of months

 

[Overnight]

Bitcoin is at $31,900
It's a buy.
Calling a bottom.
Give or take a few percent.

Reasoning?

Gen Y: Gen Y, or Millennials, were born between 1981 and 1994/6. They are currently between 25 and 40 years old (72.1 million in the U.S.) Gen Y.1 = 25-29 years old (around 31 million people in the U.S.) Gen Y.2 = 29-39 (around 42 million people in the U.S.)

$300 or $250 per kid.
Per month!!!

AT LEAST 35% of these people don't need that money...

So you literally are dueling with fate. Fascinating.

I have no dog in this fight, but may the Gen-X (Vanz) win.

 

[vanzandt]

I think I'm going to go with vz on this and take a short term trade (long 3 btc) and hold for until end of August or if $50K hits, sell 2 btc's

This is a short term position separate from the crypto portfolio which has not changed for a couple of months

Johnny I've been thinking about the call I made on this regarding a bottom at or near 31.9.

A month or so ago when it had those precipitous drops followed by the crazy up-spikes, I predicted it would settle down and trade in a relatively narrow range, which its been doing.

That recent call I made (31.9) was based almost purely on the assumption that more juice being pumped into the economy via all this child tax credit stuff would eventually find its way into crypto's. I still believe that, but there is one more thing I think that I should point out.

When I wrote the other post saying BTC would settle down at a level I was basing that on years of watching individual stocks that have their day in the sun, go crazy, settle down, and then drop some more. That last part there, "drop some more".... man I have seen that happen sooooo many times.

Now, I don't follow this thing (intently) at all really, especially the daily volume. And that's important to follow. I believe I was correct in saying a few months back that as time passed it would begin to act more and more like a stock as more and more players, especially whales and PM's, joined the fun.

So here we are. And just like @Overnight said, I too have no dog in this fight, but I do rely on intuition regarding market psychology quite a bit for near term trends; its like having a bag full of dozens and dozens of old TV reruns, and each one you know by heart, but you never know which one the network is gonna pull out and play when it reaches into that bag to change things up a bit. That's where were at now. Between shows.

All I can say is be very careful, because usually when the show starts back up on high vis stocks with lots of money at stake and lots of eyes on that particular stock, they go down before they go back up. One can say that has already happened with BTC, but I don't think it has. Soooo gen-x'rs with new found baby-bucks aside, be careful.... the whales want those baby-bucks too. That's why they're whales.
-vz

 

[SunTrader]

johnarb - might like this, pointed out to me by someone elsewhere, being "punk'd by the market gods"

ETHUSD high back in May = $4384.43
eMini high this week = $4384.50

 

[themickey]

A month or so ago when it had those precipitous drops followed by the crazy up-spikes, I predicted it would settle down and trade in a relatively narrow range, which its been doing.

One month with ~24% price swing and currently down 16% on the month and not bullish whatsoever.
That's the trap traders need watch for, the mind plays tricks, we predominantly see what we believe.

 

[johnarb]

Johnny I've been thinking about the call I made on this regarding a bottom at or near 31.9.

A month or so ago when it had those precipitous drops followed by the crazy up-spikes, I predicted it would settle down and trade in a relatively narrow range, which its been doing.

That recent call I made (31.9) was based almost purely on the assumption that more juice being pumped into the economy via all this child tax credit stuff would eventually find its way into crypto's. I still believe that, but there is one more thing I think that I should point out.

When I wrote the other post saying BTC would settle down at a level I was basing that on years of watching individual stocks that have their day in the sun, go crazy, settle down, and then drop some more. That last part there, "drop some more".... man I have seen that happen sooooo many times.

Now, I don't follow this thing (intently) at all really, especially the daily volume. And that's important to follow. I believe I was correct in saying a few months back that as time passed it would begin to act more and more like a stock as more and more players, especially whales and PM's, joined the fun.

So here we are. And just like @Overnight said, I too have no dog in this fight, but I do rely on intuition regarding market psychology quite a bit for near term trends; its like having a bag full of dozens and dozens of old TV reruns, and each one you know by heart, but you never know which one the network is gonna pull out and play when it reaches into that bag to change things up a bit. That's where were at now. Between shows.

All I can say is be very careful, because usually when the show starts back up on high vis stocks with lots of money at stake and lots of eyes on that particular stock, they go down before they go back up. One can say that has already happened with BTC, but I don't think it has. Soooo gen-x'rs with new found baby-bucks aside, be careful.... the whales want those baby-bucks too. That's why they're whales.
-vz

It's weird the way btc and cryptos following btc action are behaving lately

The bullish indicators of much of the coins being scooped up from exchanges and the dwindling supplies, plus the explosion of new wallet addresses indicating widespread adoption is still ongoing and accelerating should put btc at $50K not at $30K level

PayPal casually announcing they are increasing the limits for cryptos by 5x and PayPal is only one of the most successful retail adoption with hundreds of millions of $ in daily crypto transactions is a big tell. I mean why increase the limits by so much if there is no demand to justify it?

And NYDIG have announced partnerships to hundreds and hundreds of banks and credit unions to allow their customers to purchase bitcoin, that is freakin' crazy onramps being built at this time for the near future

Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs HNW clients should be just about ready if not already enabled to start pouring some of their wealth into bitcoin

Yet, here we are at 50% off from all time high and stuck. One way or another, this thing will break out in one direction and I feel confident that it will be up

I'm not betting the farm on this short term bet, I just feel it's a high probability of success

I appreciate your analysis and intuition, Vanz!