Bitcoin Price Thread

Pekelo said:
I have a couple of problems with your post.



Manipulate, schmanipulate. So whales can't buy or sell large amount of stocks? Not to mention only the futures part is regulated and bitcoin isn't, so what can I do, I move the BTC price? Not my fault. That isn't manipulation, just simple cause/effect.

Second, I don't believe the MtGox trustee caused the crash. Sure selling large amount of BTCs didn't help, but it was a nobrainer that 20K couldn't stay up. If you had a decent amount of BTC, you had to cash out at least some of it...

But anyway you are saying that this BTC/futures double play could be done except it might be illegal and it needs a bit more money. Maybe if the BTC part is done in more brokerages where the effect on the price is more effective. Now we are talking about manipulation...
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The manipulation may have already happened through the printing of USD tether that kept pushing the price of bitcoin in December. The manipulators, however, may have been outside of the reach of the US regulators.

The situation is skewed in favor of the longs as the btc supply is limited on any of the exchanges and can be easily pushed up, as long as there is no immediate need to dump at the market.

There are a lot of bitcoin in private wallets of whales, but these guys don't need to cash out in one shot. They've probably cashed out more than enough to satisfy whatever it is they've always dreamed of. The bitcoin "Lambo" folks are not the early investors/whales.

Just speculating as I follow many of these people on twitter (and many are underground/anonymous) and they are not buying private jets or mansions or expensive jewelry and flashing them on social media like sports superstars or music moguls. They're wired differently, if you know what I mean.
 
johnarb said:
The manipulation may have already happened through the printing of USD tether
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You switched the topic. We were talking about BTC/futures whales moving the market, not tether. Tether is not necessary for me dumping and rebuying 50K coins or whatever.

But OK let's talk about tether. I studied the issue and I am not convinced tether alone is responsible for the rally or crash. The general time when they issue more is when market participants use it more in volatile times to move in and out of cryptos. Last December was such time, so the direct connection between more tether and the crash is not proven. It is more a result of the volatility then the cause of it.

Why? Because if the accusation were true, then we would see the roller coaster going up again, up to 15K or beyond. Yet the BTC price is stabilizing and volatility has been decreasing.

Whatever is accused for causing the crash (whales, manipulation, tether) I can explain it with simple human psychology. The crash happened when I said it would in a way I said it would. The evidence is my perfect predictions without the knowledge of whales or tether. Unless it is an extreme coincidence. I am not saying they didn't help but they were not the primary cause of the crash.

The simple cause was price itself, what goes up, must come down. That simple....
 
Pekelo said:
You switched the topic. We were talking about BTC/futures whales moving the market, not tether. Tether is not necessary for me dumping and rebuying 50K coins or whatever.

But OK let's talk about tether. I studied the issue and I am not convinced tether alone is responsible for the rally or crash. The general time when they issue more is when market participants use it more in volatile times to move in and out of cryptos. Last December was such time, so the direct connection between more tether and the crash is not proven. It is more a result of the volatility then the cause of it.

Why? Because if the accusation were true, then we would see the roller coaster going up again, up to 15K or beyond. Yet the BTC price is stabilizing and volatility has been decreasing.

Whatever is accused for causing the crash (whales, manipulation, tether) I can explain it with simple human psychology. The crash happened when I said it would in a way I said it would. The evidence is my perfect predictions without the knowledge of whales or tether. Unless it is an extreme coincidence. I am not saying they didn't help but they were not the primary cause of the crash.

The simple cause was price itself, what goes up, must come down. That simple....
More...

Being that I'm a permabull on bitcoin/cryptos, you thought I was blaming tether for the crash. I was not. The crash happened for many reasons but imo the trigger was the dumping of the Mt Gox trustee that sparked a change in the sentiment. It's neither here nor there as it's already over.

I was only referring to the manipulation to the upside by the (printing) of tether and propping the bitcoin price. As it pushed the higher up and causing a euphoria among the players, the fomo got stronger and the momentum fed on itself until the change in direction. That upside manipulation may have stopped due to the attention tether received from the US regulators.

https://news.bitcoin.com/tether-printing-press-in-high-gear-issuing-400-million-in-four-days/

Bitcoin has had a rocky week to say the least. At its lowest point, the cryptocurrency dipped to $9,200 before a rising green candle sent it scurrying back into the safety of five figures. That candle was sparked by the release of $100m worth of tethers – surrogate US dollars – and was followed by another $100m issued for the next three days in a row. Tethers are propping up the bitcoin market right now...

In the short-term, the issuance of tethers serves as a form of quantitative easing that keeps the markets ticking over, even amidst negative news and regulatory uncertainty.
 
johnarb said:
Being that I'm a permabull on bitcoin/cryptos, you thought I was blaming tether for the crash. I was not. The crash happened for many reasons but imo the trigger was the dumping of the Mt Gox trustee that sparked a change in the sentiment. It's neither here nor there as it's already over.

I was only referring to the manipulation to the upside by the (printing) of tether and propping the bitcoin price. As it pushed the higher up and causing a euphoria among the players, the fomo got stronger and the momentum fed on itself until the change in direction. That upside manipulation may have stopped due to the attention tether received from the US regulators.

https://news.bitcoin.com/tether-printing-press-in-high-gear-issuing-400-million-in-four-days/

Bitcoin has had a rocky week to say the least. At its lowest point, the cryptocurrency dipped to $9,200 before a rising green candle sent it scurrying back into the safety of five figures. That candle was sparked by the release of $100m worth of tethers – surrogate US dollars – and was followed by another $100m issued for the next three days in a row. Tethers are propping up the bitcoin market right now...

In the short-term, the issuance of tethers serves as a form of quantitative easing that keeps the markets ticking over, even amidst negative news and regulatory uncertainty.
More...

The Mt. Gox dump was miniscule considering daily BTC cap, and I think it happened over several days too.
 
Here4money said:
The Mt. Gox dump was miniscule considering daily BTC cap, and I think it happened over several days too.
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What I read was that he market dumped on certain price points such that there was trend-reversal change in sentiment. The last market dump he did was when bitcoin price point recovered to over $11K causing the last trend reversal which bottomed in the low $7K this weekend. Supposedly, he's done selling for now per the court order.

Let's say that theory is correct. It would mean bitcoin will be over $11K by end of the month and around $15K by end of next month. We shall see...
 
Any questions? As the resident crypto expert, I'll be glad to help you tally your loss.

notice how the faithful slink away and make believe they never were here.

Seen it all before.

Iomega
 
Let me calculate the intangible and tangible value of Bitcoin. Intangible benefits: Backed by government - no. Guarenteed by insurance agency - no. Consumer fraud protection - no. Universally accepted - no. Tangible benefits: Weight - 0. Industrial utility - 0. Supply - potentially unlimited, especially with all the new alt coins coming out. Last price, March Futures, $7905 per Bitcoin.

Gold - Universally accepted. Has industrial utility. Limited supply. Last price April Futures, $1353.50 per troy ounce.

Bitcoin is worth it’s weight in gold: Bitcoin weight equals 0, times $1353.50 gold price equals $0.00.

Although one has to respect the current market price, I suspect Bitcoin price is being supported by speculative demand by mostly uninformed participants. Speculative demand can evaporate overnight, especially on a new intangible instrument that has structural problems and strong competition from established alternatives.

The best short term hope for cryptos is Goldman Sachs getting in and little regulatory scrutiny. I’m sure Goldman will find a way to stimulate more uninformed speculative demand for cryptos at some point. Wink.

I should have put a sarcasm alert on my earlier post.
 
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