Bitcoin Price Thread

(Futures Magazine)

Bitcoin - The trade that many investors use for Bitcoin exposure is the Grayscale Investment Trust (GBTC). The trust has consistently traded at a significant premium to Net Asset Value. The average premium was 19% over the last year.

The bitcoin strategy for many family offices and hedge funds was to subscribe to the private placement at Net Asset Value with a 6-month lockup or "can’t sell" clause. The investors then sell the shares 6 months later in the secondary market, collecting the premium.

Last week, GBTC went from a premium to a 10% discount to NAV. There's no redemption mechanism currently to exchange the shares for physical bitcoin, meaning the shares could trade at a discount to NAV for a while. It’s all about supply and demand.
 
SunTrader said:
(Futures Magazine)

Bitcoin - The trade that many investors use for Bitcoin exposure is the Grayscale Investment Trust (GBTC). The trust has consistently traded at a significant premium to Net Asset Value. The average premium was 19% over the last year.

The bitcoin strategy for many family offices and hedge funds was to subscribe to the private placement at Net Asset Value with a 6-month lockup or "can’t sell" clause. The investors then sell the shares 6 months later in the secondary market, collecting the premium.

Last week, GBTC went from a premium to a 10% discount to NAV. There's no redemption mechanism currently to exchange the shares for physical bitcoin, meaning the shares could trade at a discount to NAV for a while. It’s all about supply and demand.
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I believe ETHE is a similar set up and use for Etherium exposure.
 
Bitcoin had big selloff along with the stock market last week. The correlation with high-flyer tech stocks was even stronger

The past couple of days, bitcoin has shown strength and resilience in spite of weakness in tech stocks

Today is a very good example of this. Tech stocks down, gold down, 10yr Treasury yield up.... and bitcoin up!

Still have to keep an eye on this, but this is a very good sign for bitcoin acting as a proper uncorrelated investment asset
 
johnarb said:
Tech stocks down, gold down, 10yr Treasury yield up.... and bitcoin up
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That is true in an absolute sense but the BRR futures (CMECRYTPO) went from 53000 to 50200 during the sell off. That is roughly 2X of the NASDAQ drop (5.5% vs. 2.8%).

My observation is that it highly correlated to the high growth stocks on the NASDAQ. I trade mainly the crypto miners and they seem to have 50% correlation to Bitcoin price and 50% correlation to the NASDAQ. That makes sense, it is the same with gold mining stocks.
 
nitrene said:
That is true in an absolute sense but the BRR futures (CMECRYTPO) went from 53000 to 50200 during the sell off. That is roughly 2X of the NASDAQ drop (5.5% vs. 2.8%).

My observation is that it highly correlated to the high growth stocks on the NASDAQ. I trade mainly the crypto miners and they seem to have 50% correlation to Bitcoin price and 50% correlation to the NASDAQ. That makes sense, it is the same with gold mining stocks.
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Not familiar with the CME:CRYPTO, but I was watching spot bitcoin (along with my crypto holdings which pretty much follow btc) and btc only went negative briefly and mostly positive for the past 8 hours

upload_2021-3-3_17-37-44.png
 
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johnarb said:
Honest question, how much conviction do you have on your belief? Are you putting a trade (i.e. short position) that will make money?
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I am long, for a long time. Not selling and not taking any short positions. I am not trading in-out as well. My statement is just a very short term prediction of price action.

Short term I am bearish on the crypto market, but very bullish long term (3-5 years).
 
narafa said:
I am long, for a long time. Not selling and not taking any short positions. I am not trading in-out as well. My statement is just a very short term prediction of price action.

Short term I am bearish on the crypto market, but very bullish long term (3-5 years).
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Sorry, thought maybe you were trying to trade bitcoin. Also same as you, not selling (last bitcoin sale was 2 weeks ago but was a planned bitcoin sale)

Since last week, bitcoin has made some violent moves to the downside, followed by slow recovery above $50K. Maxinger has mentioned the record daily bitcoin ranges

My very inexperienced trading opinion is that lots of traders are getting hurt, longs and shorts, probably more longs than shorts

On a broader scale, I believe there are some big money bottom fishers that are providing a nice support $43K-$45K

There's several tweets mentioning the big amounts of bitcoin withdrawals from exchanges. Imho, if a trader is on a losing end of the whipsaws, their bitcoin stash are being scooped up and not coming back for sale

TL;DR, I think we have strong support at $48K, if broken, maybe next support is $46K, I very highly doubt we'll hit $43K again, since much of the supplies are now in cold storage
 
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