I am curious - why not gold for the 'hedge'? or do you already have?
Bitcoin Price Thread
- Thread starter Magna
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I am curious - why not gold for the 'hedge'? or do you already have?
That's all you got ? LOL....you are right, I'm out. You and Johnarb can keep telling each other how pretty you are.
There are 2 ways to interpret the rise to $7000
- it's either mass manipulation, which is very likely, or at least it's a big part of the price action. you look at all the alt-coins.. the prices are completely artificial... how many people from the general public are actually buying those? mostly the prices go up and down just as the whales trading against each other.
- if the $7000 price comes from public demand, it is actually a bullish case for equities. Right now the only asset that the public does NOT like is the equities... it's understandable... the public has missed the bull to a large extent. 50% of households don't own any stocks... and the ones that do probably don't have large portions of assets in equities. The bull run has reached 8 years - per the conventional wisdom it should end soon.
Sentiment is the most reliable indicator. Just go on youtube and search for bitcoin price target, gold/silver price, what not. The public has been scared into so many long positions in these supposedly 'safety assets', any price pump video will get massive amount of 'likes'. Yet if you search for 'stock bull market' what not, you won't even see many videos available, let alone a lot of 'likes'... fundamentally the valuation is very attractive at about 16x forward P/E, earning yield more than double the 10 year treasury. And average household checking account balance is highest in history.
When you have this much sideline cash, and this much hate on equities, something like the btc came along with some nice talking points behind it... the public piled in.
The like/dislike ratio of these videos are consistently around 100:2 ..... when the crowd is this crowded on one side, the outcome is a slam dunk.
- it's either mass manipulation, which is very likely, or at least it's a big part of the price action. you look at all the alt-coins.. the prices are completely artificial... how many people from the general public are actually buying those? mostly the prices go up and down just as the whales trading against each other.
- if the $7000 price comes from public demand, it is actually a bullish case for equities. Right now the only asset that the public does NOT like is the equities... it's understandable... the public has missed the bull to a large extent. 50% of households don't own any stocks... and the ones that do probably don't have large portions of assets in equities. The bull run has reached 8 years - per the conventional wisdom it should end soon.
Sentiment is the most reliable indicator. Just go on youtube and search for bitcoin price target, gold/silver price, what not. The public has been scared into so many long positions in these supposedly 'safety assets', any price pump video will get massive amount of 'likes'. Yet if you search for 'stock bull market' what not, you won't even see many videos available, let alone a lot of 'likes'... fundamentally the valuation is very attractive at about 16x forward P/E, earning yield more than double the 10 year treasury. And average household checking account balance is highest in history.
When you have this much sideline cash, and this much hate on equities, something like the btc came along with some nice talking points behind it... the public piled in.
The like/dislike ratio of these videos are consistently around 100:2 ..... when the crowd is this crowded on one side, the outcome is a slam dunk.
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not gold but silver because it is more divisible should the time come when you actually need to use it. Plus gold and silver are controlled by the futures which are controlled by the elite. You buy silver and they check the futures price then add on their 2 bucks. Not so with BTC.
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Never seen @johnarb --- he may be as ugly as I am. Please don't let me chase you away. I have sorta enjoyed your points of view even though you are a bit snarky at times.
The Russell 2000 looks as though someone likes it.
Specifically, the sentiment is defined as the sentiment of the crowd.
Of course when price goes up, there is more demand than supply. But how can sentiment still be negative?
In this game, regardless of if we are trading bitcoins or R2K, the house always cleans up the crowd.
So with that defined, then it is possible, to have the sentiment (by head count) being negative, while the price going up (the mark up phase), as after the house has gained control of the shares, then the current course of action is to pull it up with the back drop of the strong economy.
gold/silver/bitcoin however, by the same token, but in a slightly opposite scenario, can have an overwhelming positive sentiment (evidenced by youtube like/dislike, and the fxcm sentiment long/short ratio I have posted), but at the same time the house is short/selling. in the past months, bitcoin (and for longer period, gold and silver) has been going sideways... I interpret this as a distribution phase as the house unloads to the public, coincidental with all the push by the media, and professional gold/silver salesmen.
The media push is another tell tale sign besides the sentiment. It is fairly safe to read all media stories and interpret them in the exact opposite direction. The people in the media obviously have zero clue, as they are educated to write what they are told. So their sources (banks, whales, the 'house' in general) are only motivated to provide stories to the media people, only to serve their own agenda, their own trading plan. Therefore with a broad stroke of the brush, it is far safer to take the opposite of the face value, than the face value itself.
so there you have it... yes someone likes the R2K, but if you look at the equities in general, the house currently has great chip control, as the rally we have been seeing are with modest volumes, not much public fan fair... that's the indication that the house' goal is far greater and far higher.
One of the ET immortals is bullish here.
I admire your modesty and humble attitude...
It is easy to become immortal, just a matter of having enough aliases.
There is nothing unusual nowadays in using social media in an attempt to create demand for something that someone has a lot of and who wants to sell it at a higher price than what they paid for it.
Social media marketing is cheap and one can use feedback from comments to refine their marketing methods.
As we know, supply and demand determines price. It can be expensive and bad for your health, but if a famous actor uses the product in an animated way in a movie, such as cigarettes, additional demand for the product will be created.
Bitcoin has many fundamental issues including the lack of financial guarantees that come with bank accounts, lack of price stability, high risk of electronic theft, higher cost of transactions than traditional money, unrestricted supply potential with competing cryptos, limited acceptance, potential government controls should cryptos start making significant inroads into the traditional monetary system, and the established association of this "Product" with illegal activities.
The most laughable comments are the ones that suggest cryptos are some sort of hedge or flight to safety. Cryptos need a strong economy with a lot of excess cash floating around to have any reasonable hope for speculative demand. When the s**t truly hits the fan, people go to cash and tangibles. Look at the thread that talked about what life was like in Argentina when their economy collapsed. Toothpaste and 14 caret (and not 24 caret) gold rings became sought after items, to name a couple.
The promotion of crypto currencies is directly or indirectly backed by those who have a lot to sell and are hoping to unload unto a unsuspecting and unsophisticated public.
Social media marketing is cheap and one can use feedback from comments to refine their marketing methods.
As we know, supply and demand determines price. It can be expensive and bad for your health, but if a famous actor uses the product in an animated way in a movie, such as cigarettes, additional demand for the product will be created.
Bitcoin has many fundamental issues including the lack of financial guarantees that come with bank accounts, lack of price stability, high risk of electronic theft, higher cost of transactions than traditional money, unrestricted supply potential with competing cryptos, limited acceptance, potential government controls should cryptos start making significant inroads into the traditional monetary system, and the established association of this "Product" with illegal activities.
The most laughable comments are the ones that suggest cryptos are some sort of hedge or flight to safety. Cryptos need a strong economy with a lot of excess cash floating around to have any reasonable hope for speculative demand. When the s**t truly hits the fan, people go to cash and tangibles. Look at the thread that talked about what life was like in Argentina when their economy collapsed. Toothpaste and 14 caret (and not 24 caret) gold rings became sought after items, to name a couple.
The promotion of crypto currencies is directly or indirectly backed by those who have a lot to sell and are hoping to unload unto a unsuspecting and unsophisticated public.