What happens if it becomes invalid?
This is where I have a problem with EW is that price action can make waves invalid.
Bitcoin price thread 2.0
- Thread starter wxytrader
- Start date
This is where I have a problem with EW is that price action can make waves invalid.
It's not a problem. It's saying that statistically you're expecting an outcome and if that outcome doesn't happen then you need to adjust. An invalidation is typical at the beginning of a trend reversal. You can use indicators to help identify them as well.
I'm expecting a move up to 62k because the 3 wave is a bit stunted meaning usually that you have a more extended 5 wave...usually the length of the 1 wave.
But it could also be labelled this way, which would mean that we have already had our 5 wave (at iii). This is where you have to interpret the chart. If done this way, then it would put 3 at the 3.68 extension of 1...which is pretty extended. This would not be the best result for my trade, so you have to make some decisions like maybe leg out a bit at iii.
If you use the fib level rules where if the 3 wave is not 1.618 of wave 1 then you can expect a 5 wave to be extended...you can see the 3 wave falls short here which adds probability that we will see an extended 5 wave. I was just eyeballing it.
Either way, it would not be an invalidation because you are still expecting a pull back to (2).
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I'll just let the chart do the talking. I hope this finally puts to rest any question about the effectiveness of EW. 
I was up 2k yesterday, but I knew my payoff was going to be on the 19 or 20th on the extension. I have 150 19 contracts, and I'm expecting an open at about 19.07 or so which would be about a $3400 profit...with no dividends to f it up!
(Bitcoin was 18.63 when bitcoin was 61,330 yesterday...so if we ratio that out to the current bitcoin price we get 19.01 equivalent bito price.)
I was up 2k yesterday, but I knew my payoff was going to be on the 19 or 20th on the extension. I have 150 19 contracts, and I'm expecting an open at about 19.07 or so which would be about a $3400 profit...with no dividends to f it up!
(Bitcoin was 18.63 when bitcoin was 61,330 yesterday...so if we ratio that out to the current bitcoin price we get 19.01 equivalent bito price.)
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No because the original Bitcoin thread is crap...nobody has a clue how to forecast price.
There is no doubt to the effectiveness of EW..Your average drawdown on the other 3 positions is somewhere around 40 percent..
Hit ratio of 25% with a negatively skewed risk reward.
Lets hope BITO closes strong
Hit ratio of 25% with a negatively skewed risk reward.
Lets hope BITO closes strong
I'll just let the chart do the talking. I hope this finally puts to rest any question about the effectiveness of EW.
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I'll just let the chart do the talking. I hope this finally puts to rest any question about the effectiveness of EW.
I recommend you stop posting charts and details about Elliot Wave. Don't keep giving away your strategy and edge.
A fun way is to just make live trading calls and only mention Elliot Wave in general.
And if they laugh that Elliot Wave doesn't work, just know in your heart what they really mean is: "I am dumb and lazy so I couldn't figure out how to make Elliot Wave work."
And if they laugh that is even better for you, because that means they will never ever discover your edge, so your edge will last.
Keep taking their lunch money. You are already being way too generous with your detailed posts on Elliot Wave.
I share because collaboration is key to becoming proficient at anything.
Remember this extension that I traded must have had some buying pressure to push it higher like it did, and I'm assuming not all those buyers were Elliott wave fanatics, so these cycles are a natural characteristic of price action.
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Of course there are edges in the market..
I could prove it,but ild rather stick sharp needles in my eyes than lead you from the path of darkness
I could prove it,but ild rather stick sharp needles in my eyes than lead you from the path of darkness
Oooooohhhh, I better study EW then. My heart is telling me I don't wanna be called dumb and lazy.