Bitcoin price projection

[johnarb]

I'm on the fence about this one. On the one hand, Mike Alfred is pumping the miners quite a bit, but he is also on the board of one of them. I did dabble in them myself, and am happy to be out of both RIOT and MARA with nice profits of 150% to 300% on a 25 share position in each... LOL. (I made $550 and $160)

But I'm not sure if I want to touch them again. There is just too much that can go wrong. A leveraged BTC position is almost safer in my simple analysis. If the price of bitcoin keeps pumping, the leveraged position will do very well. But the miners can falter for all sorts of reasons, and hence its not guaranteed to pump, as we are seeing right now. And if bitcoin price dumps, the leveraged position and the miners will dump as well. So the downside is the same for both plays, and the upside isn't guaranteed for the miners. With bitcoin already being past all time highs, and the miners being far, far below their all time highs, what does this mean? Does it mean the miners are going to catch up? Or is there a reason for their lack of performance?

Of course if I go back to Nov 2022 bitcoin low, I see that they all did at least a 5-10x, but all of them put in a high 3 months ago that they haven't been able to break, except for MARA. And this is all while bitcoin has done exceptionally well since December. So perhaps the juice from these miners has already been squeezed for this cycle.

I love the bitcoin miners for the service they provide in securing the Bitcoin monetary network

but I'm not a fan of them as investments. As you've mentioned, all the regulatory risks with Bitcoin (which is low now that the bitcoin spot etf's are approved) apply to the bitcoin miners (since that's the source of their income)

However, regulatory risks to the bitcoin miners do not necessarily apply to Bitcoin

Remember when mining was banned in China and all the miners had to flee out of China?

Nowadays, there's talks of restrictions in the US, there was something recently that thankfully got killed about a White House emergency on mining using too much energy... and now a proposal to tax 30% of income of miners in the US

and I don't even follow the news, I only read snippets so who knows of other things that are being planned for the miners

The miners are being pushed out of the US,

Russia and Iran and Africa and the oil-producing and energy-rich countries will be the ones getting all the mining power

This is good for bitcoin, take the power away from the US and other (western) countries that are pro-CBDC and pro-fiat

 

[wxytrader]

(Weekly/daily/4hr)
I'm expecting some sideways movement and an ABC single correction at least. It could still make its way to 70k + before the correction. Basically if it does not launch to 100k then the correction has begun and could take us down to mid 40k by the end of the year before the major move.

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Did you just get done watching a youtube video on trading?

Such a smart man....

UMmm...so what were you saying??? And lets keep in mind that I was calling this correction BEFORE the rally lol. Back in October I was saying it was going to hit 60k in Jan and would correct to 40k after that. It's like flying a plane, they say you should be 15 minutes ahead the plane...well in stocks you need to be 3-6 months ahead of the price.

 

[The_Krakenite]

If the president with Alzheimer's succeeds with this extra miner TAX plan... the miners will simply disappear from the US and set up shop in Canada (tax breaks to miners there), and other countries like Argentina (very good energy deals), etc.

Then the miner-tax will be shifted into OTHER sectors (once it's official, you can't stop it from spreading)... of course, the companies are forced to make the working-class pay for it through inflated prices. So you're not really taxing any company... it's the 'people' who always pay in the end.

As tends to always be the case, people allow their politicians to keep turning the screws...