Bitcoin price projection

GlobalMacro90 said:
What exactly are you taking about? Many (most?) Bitcoin holders are the opposite of this… they never sell. Haven’t you seen all the statistics about the amount of coins that haven’t moved in one year plus?
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He/she did say "Bitcoin traders", not investors. The investors, who never sell, don't affect the price.

I've always wondered why, with a $1tn market cap, it behaves more like a penny stock, and this might say something about the type of people actively trading it.
 
Ed48 said:
He/she did say "Bitcoin traders", not investors. The investors, who never sell, don't affect the price.

I've always wondered why, with a $1tn market cap, it behaves more like a penny stock, and this might say something about the type of people actively trading it.
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eh not really. I think the large holder base actually contributes to the vol bc there are only a small amount of coins available for trading. Not much $ is needed to move the piece a lot.
 
GlobalMacro90 said:
eh not really. I think the large holder base actually contributes to the vol bc there are only a small amount of coins available for trading. Not much $ is needed to move the piece a lot.
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Maybe it's a combination of the two. Small pool of available coins and a large number of non-professional/retail traders (aka gamblers).
 
The trend:
  • Bitcoin going up...
  • Miners going down...

I've decided to keep shorting PUTs on miners. Added more Marathon to my positions today. Was able to take advantage of the dip today and get a good fill. I offered a 1 penny discount to the next highest seller :)

Tomorrow, if the sales continue, I will try going for more CleanSpark.
 
The_Krakenite said:
The trend:
  • Bitcoin going up...
  • Miners going down...

I've decided to keep shorting PUTs on miners. Added more Marathon to my positions today. Was able to take advantage of the dip today and get a good fill. I offered a 1 penny discount to the next highest seller :)

Tomorrow, if the sales continue, I will try going for more CleanSpark.
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The market knows that the miners income/profits will be cut in half in about a month

something something about DCF


upload_2024-3-13_10-49-32.png



If only there was a stock/company that is buying bitcoins using free cash flow, issuing debt, and its company's shares...

hint: mstr
 
johnarb said:
The market knows that the miners income/profits will be cut in half in about a month

something something about DCF
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I'm on the fence about this one. On the one hand, Mike Alfred is pumping the miners quite a bit, but he is also on the board of one of them. I did dabble in them myself, and am happy to be out of both RIOT and MARA with nice profits of 150% to 300% on a 25 share position in each... LOL. (I made $550 and $160)

But I'm not sure if I want to touch them again. There is just too much that can go wrong. A leveraged BTC position is almost safer in my simple analysis. If the price of bitcoin keeps pumping, the leveraged position will do very well. But the miners can falter for all sorts of reasons, and hence its not guaranteed to pump, as we are seeing right now. And if bitcoin price dumps, the leveraged position and the miners will dump as well. So the downside is the same for both plays, and the upside isn't guaranteed for the miners. With bitcoin already being past all time highs, and the miners being far, far below their all time highs, what does this mean? Does it mean the miners are going to catch up? Or is there a reason for their lack of performance?

Of course if I go back to Nov 2022 bitcoin low, I see that they all did at least a 5-10x, but all of them put in a high 3 months ago that they haven't been able to break, except for MARA. And this is all while bitcoin has done exceptionally well since December. So perhaps the juice from these miners has already been squeezed for this cycle.
 
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