Bitcoin Plummeting 11% to $37,980

[Snarkhund]

I don't want to be completely out without btc. It's insurance in case something big happens, i.e. Turkey announces adoption of btc, or 2 other nation states adopt btc in the same fashion as El Salvador

Or a contagion effect in the financial system, heck the Fed rate hikes could start a domino effect

Not wishing for it, but hodling that amount of btc will allow me to sleep well at night

You've done as well as anyone I can cite directly with confidence. I like how you have protected profits from Part One while keeping a stake on the table for Part Two. I can't help but admire someone who has locked in security for their family in a way that looks sane and sober.

Fuckin-A.

 

[tifoji]

4 pages and no mention of Tether or USDC? That's the real fraud in the markets. Price was prioritized via Fed like printing and the agents all over selling BTC as an inflation hedge. It's like gaslighting on an international scale but one that is allowed in some ways from the top for literal criminals and convicted Ponzi schemers running the show.
It's sure a redistribution of wealth. The source and destination are not advertised to keep the scam going longer.

 

[deaddog]

After the stock market closed blood red, I figured a repeat of the bitcoin and crypto crash like yesterday, sold 1.5 btc, not much

I can't say I'm looking for an entry to buy... Sorry

I'm trying to condition my mind of the possibility of a bear market, in which case, next step would be a liquidation of the crypto portfolio to cash except 10 btc

John selling?? Is this capitulation?

FOMO overcome by FOLM (Fear of losing more)

Is trading vs investing starting to make more sense?

 

[unconventional wisdom]

just some food for thought:

i think we need to separate bitcoin from shit-coins from smart-chains that have true disruptive potential. i find it hard to believe this was a tulip-bulbs-style bubble. but if it was, and i bought at the tippy-top, i'll have to change my handle to "boughtatthetop", but i think it's already taken. statistically, what are the odds of crypto simply ending now and society moving on from blockchain buzz. imho, i think that true blockchain believers have to start buying this dip and DCAing in.

 

[johnarb]

John selling?? Is this capitulation?

FOMO overcome by FOLM (Fear of losing more)

Is trading vs investing starting to make more sense?

You're framing it incorrectly

I've been through 2 crypto bear market cycles

In a bear market, you sell to cash so you can buy when the discounts on cryptos are 80% or more but do not expect that is the bottom

Cryptos can stay at -80% price for a long time and even go up and then down more

The key is to plan for long term in cryptos. It's not going away, and only would come back 10x bigger

You don't understand? that's ok

few understand...


for context, btc went down 85% from the high in Jan/2014 to Jan/2015, but this was not the bottom nor the end of the bear market which was another 1 year and half in 2016 but the price difference was only less than $25

https://www.elitetrader.com/et/thre...itcoin-believers-still-comfy-about-it.288985/


I know I'm talking way over your head and you're not going to understand any of these since you were not there


PS: the stock market is crashing like hell, but you guys can ignore that and only focus here

 

[deaddog]

You're framing it incorrectly

I've been through 2 crypto bear market cycles

In a bear market, you sell to cash so you can buy when the discounts on cryptos are 80% or more but do not expect that is the bottom

Cryptos can stay at -80% price for a long time and even go up and then down more

The key is to plan for long term in cryptos. It's not going away, and only would come back 10x bigger

PS: the stock market is crashing like hell, but you guys can ignore that and only focus here

John; I'm just going back to a conversation we had a while back where you argued that trading bitcoin was unreasonable. I won't take the effort to go back and look it up but I'm sure you remember the thread.

You wanted to make sure I had skin in the game. Your buy and hold against my trading. I haven't bought any yet because the price is still trending down.

As for the stock market; you're right it is correcting. As a trader I'm moving to cash. The really astute traders are taking shorts.

I'm not saying bitcoin isn't going to the moon eventually, I'm saying that it hasn't started in that direction.

Nothing wrong with taking some off the table and waiting for a better price. It's just not buy and HODL. I'm suggesting that you might have changed your attitude towards trading.

 

[johnarb]

John; I'm just going back to a conversation we had a while back where you argued that trading bitcoin was unreasonable. I won't take the effort to go back and look it up but I'm sure you remember the thread.

You wanted to make sure I had skin in the game. Your buy and hold against my trading. I haven't bought any yet because the price is still trending down.

As for the stock market; you're right it is correcting. As a trader I'm moving to cash. The really astute traders are taking shorts.

I'm not saying bitcoin isn't going to the moon eventually, I'm saying that it hasn't started in that direction.

Nothing wrong with taking some off the table and waiting for a better price. It's just not buy and HODL. I'm suggesting that you might have changed your attitude towards trading.

You don't need to go back, I know and remember the discussion

Your frame of reference is incorrect as I said on my previous post

First of all, I have bitcoin and cryptos, you do not have any. We are not the same

As my post mentioned, I will always hodl 10 btc

To have 0 btc or no cryptos is irresponsible from a risk management, imho

What if China invades Taiwan causing a massive disruption in the global trades and as a result Canada defaults on its debts and Bitcoin goes up to over $1M Canadian dollar each overnight?

FOLM is your term that implies I'm afraid of losing more fiat value. This is incorrect. I already have enough fiat in my portfolio

I value cryptos more than fiat. We are not the same

What I would like is to be able to pick up cryptos including btc at a huge discount during a bear market. I'm interested in more cryptos not more fiat

I believe in cryptos as a forever savings account. Fiat is needed for spending

We are not the same

 

[deaddog]

We are not the same

I couldn't agree more. And that's a good thing. It's what makes a market.

I'm not arguing fiat vs crypto. I'm suggesting trading one for the other. When crypto is high trade it for fiat. When the price of crypto drops trade your fiat for crypto.

For the most part I can't spend crypto right now. I have to convert it to fiat. If a merchant accepts crypto I'm assuming it gets converted to fiat value. That is you can't buy a $100,000 dollar car for 2.5 bitcoin you would have to convert it to dollars worth of bitcoin for the dealer to accept it. The price in bitcoin would depend on the exchange rate at the time.

Now for the tough question. A month ago (around 47k) you wouldn't trade your bitcoin for fiat.
Now you are willing to part with some for 37K. What changed?

 

[Concinnity]

You don't need to go back, I know and remember the discussion

Your frame of reference is incorrect as I said on my previous post

First of all, I have bitcoin and cryptos, you do not have any. We are not the same

As my post mentioned, I will always hodl 10 btc

To have 0 btc or no cryptos is irresponsible from a risk management, imho

What if China invades Taiwan causing a massive disruption in the global trades and as a result Canada defaults on its debts and Bitcoin goes up to over $1M Canadian dollar each overnight?

FOLM is your term that implies I'm afraid of losing more fiat value. This is incorrect. I already have enough fiat in my portfolio

I value cryptos more than fiat. We are not the same

What I would like is to be able to pick up cryptos including btc at a huge discount during a bear market. I'm interested in more cryptos not more fiat

I believe in cryptos as a forever savings account. Fiat is needed for spending

We are not the same

You make valid points, but I think he is speaking more in a practical just trading way. I mean BTC is almost working on a 50% haircut from it's highs. He's saying if you sold some BTC there, now you can buy it back here and almost double your position.

Also seems you did very well for yourself and you were smart, so you deserve to be where you're at. At the same time what about an 18-20 year old just getting started in life? For most of them (like 99.9%) they can't practically hold a consistent 10 BTC or have a reasonable way to ascertain that much of it yet.

In other words of course if someone has ample resources, it's smart to diversify. If you have for example 100 units of something, but only need 10 units to sustain your lifestyle. than of course putting 10 units in BTC, 5 units in gold, 5 units in silver, 5 in cash, 5 in other assets and etc etc is a great hedge to make sure you can maintain your lifestyle, virtually regardless outside of a mad max scenario.

From reading his post he was speaking more of a practical view of just interchanging them to gain profits. Like trading it.

 

[johnarb]

I couldn't agree more. And that's a good thing. It's what makes a market.

Now for the tough question. A month ago (around 47k) you wouldn't trade your bitcoin for fiat.
Now you are willing to part with some for 37K. What changed?

This is my 3rd reply to you but we're still not meeting eye to eye, lo. We are not the same and that's a good thing as you said

Notice your post is talking about fiat and its value? You referenced a car, good. Next year, if inflation is 7%, that car would be more expensive in fiat

Listen, I get the value of fiat and spending on goods and services. I'm not against fiat. I have enough fiat in my portfolio

Your last sentence again tries to lead the argument for the 3rd time to fiat value which is the most important for you

Savings of value and wealth in bitcoin and cryptos. Remember our convo from a couple of months ago


What changed? nothing changed. I and many cryptos people are waiting for a bear market to snap up some good deals

Don't reference the fiat price

A month ago, I was more sure it's still a bull market in cryptos. Now I'm considering that it may be more likely we are in a bear market in cryptos

But I have not decided that it is a bear market

I'm looking at many aspects. I'm a fundamentals investor

With the Fed tightening and rate hikes, less money for all the markets including stock market and cryptos

It's not rocket science it can cause a bear market in stock market and cryptos

But here's my thread from the beginning of the year discussing bear market so you can't say I changed overnight

https://elitetrader.com/et/threads/crypto-macro-trends-for-2022.363931/