Bitcoin multi-year forecasts

M

m22au

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bitcoin-just-soared-1-500-162700354.html
"Bitcoin just soared to a new $1,600 high — but the first investor in Snapchat thinks it could hit $500,000 by 2030"

Based on the following assumptions:

400 million users * 25,000 USD average holding = 10 trillion USD "market cap"

10 trillion USD / 20 million Bitcoins = 500,000 USD per Bitcoin

The 400 million users seems to be an extrapolation of the past growth in users:

120,000 users in 2013 to
6.5 million users in 2017
factor of 54

6.5 million users in 2017
400 million users in 2030
factor of 61

.
 
m22au said:
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bitcoin-just-soared-1-500-162700354.html
"Bitcoin just soared to a new $1,600 high — but the first investor in Snapchat thinks it could hit $500,000 by 2030"

Based on the following assumptions:

400 million users * 25,000 USD average holding = 10 trillion USD "market cap"

10 trillion USD / 20 million Bitcoins = 500,000 USD per Bitcoin

The 400 million users seems to be an extrapolation of the past growth in users:

120,000 users in 2013 to
6.5 million users in 2017
factor of 54

6.5 million users in 2017
400 million users in 2030
factor of 61

.
More...


I feel like at some point There almost has to be a blowup in bitcoin, there will be a confidence scare, and then everyone who bought it will realise they own a currency backed by nothing, and the house of cards will collapse.

With that said ive obviously been wrong on it so far, but its just too risky imo, had some trading buddies who bought it and did well, but i could just never make the case for it.
 
JackRab said:
In that case, gold will be at 50.000 USD and oil at 1.000 USD... or perhaps a multiple of that
More...
The difference is XBT has a real world use that will drive new people into it, while gold has not. Gold is only good as a door stop. Oil is a energy commodity and not comparable.
 
Max E. Pad said:
I feel like at some point There almost has to be a blowup in bitcoin, there will be a confidence scare, and then everyone who bought it will realise they own a currency backed by nothing, and the house of cards will collapse.

With that said ive obviously been wrong on it so far, but its just too risky imo, had some trading buddies who bought it and did well, but i could just never make the case for it.
More...

There have been various confidence scares along the way already, the best example being the Mt Gox blowup.

However each time (so far) it has bounced back to a new high. Obviously that past performance is not necessarily an indicator of future performance.

I agree that Bitcoin is a "currency backed by nothing", but then again that is also true for most (if not all) fiat currencies. Centuries of history show us that fiat currencies tend to "die" eventually as a result of hyperinflation. However in the years and decades before the hyperinflation arrives they are incredibly useful.

One strong advantage that Bitcoin has over fiat currencies is its relative secrecy (eg. for buying dodgy goods and services). While it could easily drop below $100 again, it's likely to have a long-term role in facilitating those types of transactions.

.
 
Bitcoin supply is limited to 21 million unlike fiat currencies that expand exponentially through central bank and private bank fractional reserve banking. Think of bitcoin as digital gold.
 
bln said:
The difference is XBT has a real world use that will drive new people into it, while gold has not. Gold is only good as a door stop. Oil is a energy commodity and not comparable.
More...

Any means for exchange has real world use... as long as people assume that. XBT is better than gold and oil because of the ease of transfer.

But I was merely pointing to the devaluation of the USD effect. When Bitcoin hits a 500.000 USD value, IMO that would mean the USD is severely devalued... either because of the widespread acceptance of Bitcoin.. or another initial reason.

And in that case, since both Gold and Oil at the moment are valued in USD, it would mean both Gold and Oil will also have skyrocketed. Gold probably more than Oil, since by 2030 we would have changed to less fossil fuel usage...
 
bln said:
The difference is XBT has a real world use that will drive new people into it, while gold has not. Gold is only good as a door stop. Oil is a energy commodity and not comparable.
More...

Read a history book in regards to gold.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top