BitCoin - Intellectual Fraud or a Stunning Idea??

[Pekelo]

What do you call when Gox DDOS’d, Bitcoin-24 Halted, BitFloor Shuts Down Permanently?

Thursday...

Quote from DeeDeeTwo:

It's being built by an obsessive, highly educated Cult of 50,000 to 100,000 people...
This Cult has driven BTC from $50 million to $1 billion in 2 years...

I have just used the cult analogy today, when talking to someone. Where you are wrong is that people will stick with it forever. When newer and better competitors take over and BTC goes to the 2-5 cent pricerange for years, the cultists are going to abandon it eventually. Sure they are going to own 10K-100K, but it will still be worthless because you can't spend it on anything...

 

[DeeDeeTwo]

Quote from Pekelo:

What do you call when Gox DDOS’d, Bitcoin-24 Halted, BitFloor Shuts Down Permanently?

Using $50 BTC and a 1.5% fee...
Gox made about $50,000,000 last year...
So they are just raking it in and here to stay.

BitFloor was making about $2,000,000/year...
But had their US bank account closed by Capital One...
They will re-open in weeks in a friendly jurisdiction.

Bitcoin-24 may be a robbery... so what...
It's like saying in 1850 that USD is worthless...
Because outlaws rob banks and trains.

Professional grade BTC exchanges are popping up like mushrooms...
Like those archaic stock ECNs were popping up 10 years ago.

There are now BTC Stock Exchanges and successful BTC IPOs.

Bitcoin is not even centered in the US...
It's extremely global in nature...
Actually very popular in less developed countries...
When China seriously gets on board...
This will take off like a fucking rocket.

 

[Pekelo]

Quote from DeeDeeTwo:

Using $50 BTC and a 1.5% fee...
Gox made about $50,000,000 last year...
This will take off like a fucking rocket.

It already did, and crash landed. 2-3 times so far. I highly doubt your numbers about Mt.Gox is correct. If they had that much money, they would have bought servers long time ago...

On the day of the crash, Gox cound't handle more than 37 transaction per second. Now that's what I call a classy operation!

There are only 250K users or so worldwide.... Wake me up when it hits a million....

P.S.: I am long Bitcoin from 95 in my virtual account. Up 8% right now....

--------------------------------

50 million my ass. Sierra Chart isn't impressed with MtGox datafeed:

https://www.sierrachart.com/SupportBoard.php?PostID=2092#P2092

 

[DeeDeeTwo]

Quote from Pekelo:

It already did, and crash landed. 2-3 times so far. I highly doubt your numbers about Mt.Gox is correct. If they had that much money, they would have bought servers long time ago...

OK, I'm trading at a smaller exchange in CAD with higher fees...
Here are GOX fees = average about 0.5%.

https://mtgox.com/fee-schedule

Look at the volumes...

http://bitcoincharts.com/markets/mtgoxUSD.html

So GOX made about $2,000,000 last 30 days...
Probably make $10,000,000/year...
The smaller exchanges charge about 1% and make more/trade...
Plus there are other fees that add up.

GOX problem is really legacy software...
The newer exchanges are building from scratch...
GOX is a sitting duck to have their market share taken away.

Here are all the exchanges:

http://bitcoinwatch.com/

This is not rocket science...
You are market making ONE THING at multi-second latency...
If you can take an exchange to volume 1,000/day...
You have yourself a great, unregulated business.

 

[Pekelo]

Quote from DeeDeeTwo:


So GOX made about $2,000,000 last 30 days...
Probably make $10,000,000/year...

OK, so we are already down to 10 mill from 50 mill, that is a progress. Mind you, you used their very busiest month EVER, to guess their annual revenue.

Of course 12 months ago the volume was easily 10% or less than last month's.
Throw in that they have like 40 employees now (22 only for account verification) and they had to buy servers instead of those 5 years old desktops they were using in their moms' basement...
Anyhow, bottom line is, although it could be a decent business once they actually run it like that, in the past, they haven't been a huge moneymaker....

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=117478.0

2012 Oct:
"basically gox makes 1% of the monthly volume, the volume is usually at least 1M BTC per month, some times more than that,
I've seen several 2M months. so gox makes at least 10k BTC per month"

This in a year when the average BTC price was below $10... That would be way less than 3 million in revenue, minus salaries and paying mom for room and board.... their legal cost was huge...

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I am up 25%, to Infinity and Beyond!!!!!!

 

[Pekelo]

Damn, did we just rally overnight up to $135? I thought it was a screaming buy under 70 a few days ago...

Atticus, are you done with this thing or still playing around with it? You can pretty much fade any 30$ move, either way...

Here is my prediction, because I like to throw them around:

At least one more bubble is still left in this thing. Not enough people got hurt yet, and they are still stupid. I don't know if the next peak will be below 266 or way above it, but one more decent runup and burn is in the cards.

Short term (next 2 weeks) it should reach 140-180 where it might peaks. Where is that average chart of a bubble when I need it? I think that shows a second peak 30% or so below the big one... We shall see....

Currently: just below $115

 

[DeeDeeTwo]

Quote from Pekelo:

OK, so we are already down to 10 mill from 50 mill, that is a progress. Mind you, you used their very busiest month EVER, to guess their annual revenue.

-------------------------------------------------

I am up 25%, to Infinity and Beyond!!!!!!

I'm not really interested in what GOX is making...
Or what their issues are in the Japanese business culture.

I've been looking at the small exchanges and their Business Models...
(Look up the Virtex IPO Prospectus to get an inside look)...
And what it takes to clone one in a few months...
What useful open source software is out there, etc...
Since my current trading business is more complex than a BTC exchange.

Cryptocurrencies are the sort of universe where a good idea will make you rich...
Where a software engineer can really get creative...
You can brainstorm endlessly, kinda like the internet in 1997...
(As opposed to grinding money off $0.03 stock spreads...
And waiting for a periods of volatility to make real money...
In a stock market that is more rigged than not).

 

[atticus]

Quote from DeeDeeTwo:

Using $50 BTC and a 1.5% fee...
Gox made about $50,000,000 last year...
So they are just raking it in and here to stay.

BitFloor was making about $2,000,000/year...
But had their US bank account closed by Capital One...
They will re-open in weeks in a friendly jurisdiction.

Bitcoin-24 may be a robbery... so what...
It's like saying in 1850 that USD is worthless...
Because outlaws rob banks and trains.

Professional grade BTC exchanges are popping up like mushrooms...
Like those archaic stock ECNs were popping up 10 years ago.

There are now BTC Stock Exchanges and successful BTC IPOs.

Bitcoin is not even centered in the US...
It's extremely global in nature...
Actually very popular in less developed countries...
When China seriously gets on board...
This will take off like a fucking rocket.

$50MM to $10MM and now you don't care what they're making? Wow.

Pekelo: no, I had no funding at Gox and was going to go with bitfloor until they hit the skids. I got another account funded but I won't pay more than $80.

 

[Pekelo]

Quote from DeeDeeTwo:

I'm not really interested in what GOX is making....

The point was that you can't even objectively evaluate a normal business, so why would we take your opinion on such a complex matter as bitcoin?

 

[DeeDeeTwo]

Quote from Pekelo:

The point was that you can't even objectively evaluate a normal business, so why would we take your opinion on such a complex matter as bitcoin?

In what remote sense is GOX a "normal business"?

I run and evaluate a 7 figure business on a daily basis...
As opposed to you jacking off online about a 25% bump in BTC.