BitCoin - Intellectual Fraud or a Stunning Idea??

[Pekelo]

Sorry guys, I was actually trading.

Quote from gmst:

Pekelo - what was the Pokemon hype? Can you describe it a bit like you described the doll thing. thanks.

Well, how much does a Pokemon card (or any baseball card) cost to make? let's say 10 cents and we are pushing it. How much does it cost in the store? How much does it cost on Ebay later on? What ads value to that 10 cents making value?

A baseball or pokemon card has basicly no intrinsic value itself, well, I guess you can cut cocaine with it. The value comes from the hype. Some baseball players are famous (aka hyped) most are not. Some Pokemon characters are valued high (for whatever reasons) most of them are not.

Can they make more Pokemon cards? Sure. Were there a bunch around when they were released? yes. So it wasn't scarcity what made them valuable.

You know what is rare? My shit. My poo. I produce on average one so that makes fairly scarce. But rarity itself doesn't always add value. My shit has value for me, but not for anybody else. Now if some of you guys are interested, I can be selling....

 

[Algo_Design_Kid]

Quote from atticus:

Look at BTC from the perspective of the size trader looking to move illicit goods. It simply doesn't work at it's capacity constrained and you must initiate with FX in some capacity. I mention the illicit trans. as there is no reason for legit business to deal with something so constrained. The mkt potential is limited until the thing trades a serious notional figure (like $1k per unit) and it attracts interest along the way. The barrier to entry is insignificant which puts a cap on price.

Imagine the vcap interest in a new BTC-type startup if the notional hits a billion. Yeah, they'll be entrenched, but if a corporate name comes in the BTC will lose 60% overnight.

So no reason to transact until it reaches some capacity and that would breed massive competition.

So, buy and hoard until $1000 a coin?

 

[atticus]

Quote from Algo_Design_Kid:

So, buy and hoard until $1000 a coin?

Ha, but it was my intent, but the upside vola was so great that once I was in with a double I had to look seriously at getting out. I am sure there are thousands of techies out there who received BTC as payment for programming jobs when it was in the single digits.

There is no store of value here.... 21MM reflects a nearly $3B mkt gain based upon hobbyists. It's not sustainable.

I will be kicking myself if it hits $1k, but I don't want to be w/o a chair when the music stops.

 

[newguy05]

Quote from atticus:

I absolutely did. Have you seen the chart? I bot the moment the funds were received by Mt Gox. $8k, which even at that level was uncomfortable, which is also an impediment.

lol never thought i would see the day atticus buys some bitcoins.

Yeah i never leave anything in mtgox, always transfer out asap. That shop is(was?) just a bunch of kids in the basement, their site got killed/hacked so many times in the past, you have no recourse if they take or lose your money/btc.

The biggest obstacle by far for bitcoin is the lack of a legit exchange/market maker, if a real player like ib or oanda gets into it the value of bitcoin will skyrocket even more. But it's still too small for them to bother.

Not too concerned about copycats like paypal going in, there is an inherent distrust and "barrier" for any corporate funded copycats. For opensource, nothing can compete with bitcoin without adding new features while maintaing the advantages of btc, if this train keeps going, we may ended up with a few much like gold/silver etc. so far btc by far followed by litecoin is it.

 

[Pekelo]

Quote from achilles28:

If the US Treasury capped the total supply of dollars at 21 million (digital and fiat) at it's inception, would the US Dollar be more scarce, or less scarce, then it is today? Real easy, isn't it?

Good that you brought this up, because we can discuss the money supply. Had the US dollar have a limit from 1930, it could NOT have functioned during the last few decades as a useful currency. Why? Because there are way more products and services and there wouldn't have been enough dollars to act as value exchanger.

Sometimes more money is needed for a country and sometimes the money supply needs to be curtailed. That's what the Feds do. Now politicans can get into the easy money printing business, but it doesn't need to be so the case all the time.

So people crying about fiat money don't get that it isn't the fiat nature of the money what is the problem, but unlimited and unnecessary printing.

Being divisible doesn't make something less scarce.

No, but if you think about Bitcoins as only 21 million (well 11) available, you are incorrect. 21 million anything indivisible couldn't function as a currency. But if you add a multiplier of 10 million, now we are talking.


Gold is divisible. Does that mean gold isn't scarce?? Palladium, silver,

Alright, you just gave me another argument. Is Bitcoin scarce? So how about Litecoin? Now the virtual currency market just got bigger by 400%. How about the Pekicoins I am going to release soon?

Against the scarcity argument there is the possibility of other virtual currencies, and your precious little Bitcoin isn't that important or valuable anymore...

In plain English, it doesn't have a monopoly on the virtual currency market but it does have competition, and the cost of entering the market with a new currency is incredibly low....

 

[atticus]

Quote from newguy05:

lol never thought i would see the day atticus buys some bitcoins.

Yeah i never leave anything in mtgox, always transfer out asap. That shop is(was?) just a bunch of kids in the basement, their site got killed/hacked so many times in the past, you have no recourse if they take or lose your money/btc.

The biggest obstacle by far for bitcoin is the lack of a legit exchange/market maker, if a real player like ib or oanda gets into it the value of bitcoin will skyrocket even more. But it's still too small for them to bother.

Not too concerned about copycats like paypal going in, there is an inherent distrust and "barrier" for any corporate funded copycats. For opensource, nothing can compete with bitcoin without adding new features while maintaing the advantages of btc, if this train keeps going, we may ended up with a few much like gold/silver etc. so far btc by far followed by litecoin is it.

Yeah, the BTC is crypto but these sites are a joke. There is a cottage industry of players hyping there tech for deposits. I will definitely get back in if someone produces an OTC bitcoin derivatives exchange. Like MPEx but with a decent front-end.

 

[achilles28]

Quote from atticus:

Look at BTC from the perspective of the size trader looking to move illicit goods. It simply doesn't work at it's capacity constrained and you must initiate with FX in some capacity. I mention the illicit trans. as there is no reason for legit business to deal with something so constrained. The mkt potential is limited until the thing trades a serious notional figure (like $1k per unit) and it attracts interest along the way. The barrier to entry is insignificant which puts a cap on price.

Imagine the vcap interest in a new BTC-type startup if the notional hits a billion. Yeah, they'll be entrenched, but if a corporate name comes in the BTC will lose 60% overnight.

So no reason to transact until it reaches some capacity and that would breed massive competition.

Outside the West, currency and capital controls are the norm. Venezuela to West Africa. Even China, the Renminbi isn't easily convertible. Businessmen and well-to-do types dealing in the third and second world need reliable, easy convertibility and transfer. This is legitimate, necessary and beneficial. Take countries like Cyprus or Greece, undergoing a banking crisis that need to get their money out quick? Maybe if Bitcoin enjoyed this level of popularity a year ago, many Cyproits and Greeks who had little to do with their countries disastrous fiscal policies could have got their money out?

Sure, big Corporations have no problem moving money through traditional banking channels. But then there's the little guy. The personal saver. What if I don't want to keep my money in the US (or Canada), or in a US bank, subject to all the spying, controls, and risk of serious "haircuts"? I'd like to store it elsewhere, thanks. Many people feel the same way. We want OUT of the system. I dont trust the system. Many people don't. With the ECB talking like Cyprus is the new model, there's reason to be concerned. I'm not saying Bitcoin is the go-to alternative. Obviously pm's, real estate and cash are better. But they can't be easily transported outside a country when it's time to leave. etc.

 

[Algo_Design_Kid]

Quote from atticus:

Ha, but it was my intent, but the upside vola was so great that once I was in with a double I had to look seriously at getting out. I am sure there are thousands of techies out there who received BTC as payment for programming jobs when it was in the single digits.

There is no store of value here.... 21MM reflects a nearly $3B mkt gain based upon hobbyists. It's not sustainable.

I will be kicking myself if it hits $1k, but I don't want to be w/o a chair when the music stops.

I think you are underestimating the true potential of BTC. Using the term "hobbyists" I believe is somewhat foolish. I have been in this for about 2+ years now. I made a lot of mistakes too, like you just did selling your coins. The price could go down $40 tomorrow, if it does, hopefully you get back in. Personally, I think there is a chance of $250 this year.

 

[MadeMan]

Quote from atticus:

Yeah, the BTC is crypto but these sites are a joke. There is a cottage industry of players hyping there tech for deposits. I will definitely get back in if someone produces an OTC bitcoin derivatives exchange. Like MPEx but with a decent front-end.

how about


https://icbit.se/

 

[atticus]

Quote from Algo_Design_Kid:

I think you are underestimating the true potential of BTC. Using the term "hobbyists" I believe is somewhat foolish. I have been in this for about 2+ years now. I made a lot of mistakes too, like you just did selling your coins. The price could go down $40 tomorrow, if it does, hopefully you get back in. Personally, I think there is a chance of $250 this year.

Wouldn't be the first time, but I can't hold something as intangible (w/o an implicit guarantee, coupon, etc) into a double sit on my hands. I'd def be back in at $80-90 provided no adverse news. Obviously we're all holding some sovereign currency, and therein lies the interest in BTC.

Also, a corporate entry into the space is unlikely as there would be an assumption of manipulation, unless you're at a fixed exchange rate. No corporate interest in a floating digital currency. I think BTC is a great idea if it's fixed to EURUSD, but don't have any interest in it beyond a trade.