Bitcoin has topped.

[Master Pu]

No change of opinion so far. I'm with Gates & Buffett on this one, it's a mania, there are no fundamentals behind crypto, just momentum based on crowd sentiment which can change like the wind. Chart says it's a sell.

 

[Master Pu]

Hmm, I am surprised you don't get it. Your first part was right and then you went diwn the entirely wrong street. Insider trading is trading on non public, material information. The material information is NOT knowledge of bitcoin or doge. It is knowledge of the timing and content of tweets and interviews and appearances that have a material impact on the pricing of different assets. I thought this was crystal clear, but I repeat it anyways.

Insider trading causes market impact through market manipulation. Those are the causal relationships.

Sorry, still don't get it, maybe I'm being dumb, how's what he is doing any different from what many other people do on social media? He can't be charged with anything criminal just because he expresses his point view or having a laugh and happens to have millions of followers. Maybe he can get banned from Twitter, but not much else IMHO. How can this be even remotely compared to what Hunt brothers did with silver as an example?

 

[DiceAreCast]

He does commit insider trading if he puts on positions before tweeting his views on cryptos that he knows full well have a material impact on certain asset prices. Trading on any non public, material, information is considered insider trading, in fact its the very definition of it. Obviously there is some room for interpretation else he would already be charged, but it looks pretty darn obvious to me that what he is doing is exactly what the Wallstreet bets guys were doing. Some of them are being charged as we speak.

Sorry, still don't get it, maybe I'm being dumb, how's what he is doing any different from what many other people do on social media? He can't be charged with anything criminal just because he expresses his point view or having a laugh and happens to have millions of followers. Maybe he can get banned from Twitter, but not much else IMHO. How can this be even remotely compared to what Hunt brothers did with silver as an example?

 

[virtusa]

That is utter bullshit. He was paid that as cash salary but was awarded millions of shares. Please don't play dumber than you really are.

You don't get the point at all. There are also hundreds of thousands of companies that are run by CEOs who understand the actual products they are making, rose through the ranks (necessary to actually learn), conduct themselves ethically, are paid a reasonable amount, and treat their employees with respect. Their heart bleeds for each laid off person and their families and they try everything to keep those who show loyalty and work hard. That is the point. Not that everyone can try to become a crooked and unethical CEO.

A lot of people are overpaid and a lot of people are underpaid. No matter what job they have.
And on all jobs and levels there are crooks and people who have no empathy for anybody.

Without the vision that Bezos, Gates, Jobs, Dell, Musk, Zuckerberg...had, millions would maybe not have a job. A job that they have now because the mentioned people "just had a vision". Having a vision is essential in business.
Without a vision, "The real magic was done by the unknown engineers and programmers" will never happen. "The real magic" is a result of the collaboration of a lot of people.

Gates became rich with his operating system because IBM was not interested in these operating systems. How many engineers and programmer were working at IBM at that time? Probably thousands, not a single one could "make the magic happen". Not a single engineer or programmer saw what Gates (and Allen) saw.

https://www.ozy.com/true-and-stories/the-agreement-that-catapulted-microsoft-over-ibm/94437/

 

[virtusa]

No change of opinion so far. I'm with Gates & Buffett on this one, it's a mania, there are no fundamentals behind crypto, just momentum based on crowd sentiment which can change like the wind. Chart says it's a sell.

That's why I used behavioral finance as the basis where I build my trading system on.

 

[Sprout]

That's why I used behavioral finance as the basis where I build my trading system on.

What elements of BF?

 

[ph1l]

I am impressed, not with your model, which surely looks like a polynomial that totally overfits the data. But that you show interest in the more technical aspects of financial data. Did I miss any similar of your past posts?

It may look like a polynomial fit, but the functions for each model have a combination of a parabola plus three cosine waves. It's easy to see that from the (somewhat) readable code.

y = ((((25869.4 + (768.416 * x)) +
    (-4.60808 * (x * x))) +
    (4610.53 * cos ((0.216499 * x) + 5.74516))) +
    (1754.01 * cos ((0.342944 * x) + 5.3832))) +
    (2676.64 * cos ((0.185219 * x) + 5.10898))

The fit attempts to find a curve whose points minimize the squared distance to the actual points. Because this model is the sum of only a few components, it is unlikely to overfit.

For the above code (the previous graph has 10 model curves overlaid), the actual data, fitted curve, and the parabola are:

The cosines alone:

Some related posts:
https://www.elitetrader.com/et/thre...dict-market-moves.357176/page-36#post-5358066
https://www.elitetrader.com/et/thre...-price-prediction-models.357511/#post-5359400
https://www.elitetrader.com/et/thre...ession-model-experiments.357998/#post-5373435

 

[Snarkhund]

Here is a graph with:

• the past 123 calendar days from yahoo finance data for the close prices of BTC-USD (I think the prices are for just before midnight in London -- 12 AM GMT or 12 AM BST).
• curves of 10 models each fit to the prices with a trend plus cycles and extrapolated for 21 days.

View attachment 258930
The + signs are the input prices, and the overlapping lines have the models' predicted prices.

I don't think I'd bet on it, but the models are in close agreement that there is some room for prices to continue downward for about 14 more days.

Example of a model:

y = ((((25869.4 + (768.416 * x)) +
    (-4.60808 * (x * x))) +
    (4610.53 * cos ((0.216499 * x) + 5.74516))) +
    (1754.01 * cos ((0.342944 * x) + 5.3832))) +
    (2676.64 * cos ((0.185219 * x) + 5.10898))

y is the predicted BTC-USD price, and x is the number of calendar days from the beginning of the period.

Extrapolation from polynomial fit curves, particularly high order fits, are not predictive and I'm surprised that anyone thinks they are.

 

[ph1l]

Extrapolation from polynomial fit curves, particularly high order fits, are not predictive and I'm surprised that anyone thinks they are.

It's not a polynomial fit (see post immediately above yours). And the curve would need to be refitted often to make it useful for trading (e.g., every bar).

Here is a polynomial, least squares fit on the same data.

And here is the same polynomial fit extrapolated 21 days.

Maybe that will happen after Bitcoin is hacked.

 

[Overnight]

Typical Masshole logic above ^

If the power goes out, how do you plan on posting here on ET when the internet is down?

Typical stalking troll post above ^

If the power goes out, I'll still be able to use cash to buy things.