Bitcoin Halving

[johnarb]

Nobody even uttered the word sell. We just say we don't trust it. It can collapse 20-30% at any given moment.

You are correct, I should have said it's being portrayed as a negative.

As orbit23 explained how Tethers work, printing Tethers means there's new money being deposited into exchanges and if you look at the documentation from these stablecoin issuers, that's how it works and investors have to complete the AML/KYC to discourage money laundering (I do think it still happens, fwiw).

During the brutal bear market, we didn't have Tether printing of this magnitude which imo was because cryptos lost interest from the retail investors as the prices were going down.

One last thing on Tether, if they are engaging in fractional reserve banking, there could be a run on them, I would say good, shut it down, but just in the fiat world where Zimbabwe may be bankrupt doesn't mean you mistrust all fiat currencies.

 

[RedDuke]

You are correct, I should have said it's being portrayed as a negative.

As orbit23 explained how Tethers work, printing Tethers means there's new money being deposited into exchanges and if you look at the documentation from these stablecoin issuers, that's how it works ....

That is how it should work. In reality USDT is just being created with no oversight and backed by nothing. BUSD is at least being audited once a month by a reputable firm. At least this is what they claim at Binanace.

 

[johnarb]

That is how it should work. In reality USDT is just being created with no oversight and backed by nothing. BUSD is at least being audited once a month by a reputable firm. At least this is what they claim at Binanace.

I find myself in an awkward position of being seen as a Tether defender. I am not and I don't fully trust Tether, myself. I would buy USDC if I was to cash out to a stablecoin. I already gave my opinion on Binance which translates to me trusting BUSD even less than Tether.

I think Pekelo hit on a good point, Tether can collapse a certain percentage if they are not fully backed, and that's how it's supposed to work like when it traded for 80 cents or something like that.

Tether is a stablecoin. Tether is not bitcoin (btc).

 

[RedDuke]

I find myself in an awkward position of being seen as a Tether defender. I am not and I don't fully trust Tether, myself. I would buy USDC if I was to cash out to a stablecoin. I already gave my opinion on Binance which translates to me trusting BUSD even less than Tether.

I think Pekelo hit on a good point, Tether can collapse a certain percentage if they are not fully backed, and that's how it's supposed to work like when it traded for 80 cents or something like that.

Tether is a stablecoin. Tether is not bitcoin (btc).

the interesting fact is BUSD is being auditors by Withum, seems like a very reputable auditor. Then again who is to say these millions can not disappear at moment notice.

https://www.paxos.com/attestations/

 

[Pekelo]

just in the fiat world where Zimbabwe may be bankrupt doesn't mean you mistrust all fiat currencies.

But YOU do mistrust all fiat.

The problem with tether is 2 fold:

1. Cascade effect. When/if it collapses it will take down every crypto with it by 20-30%. It is an unnecessary outside risk.
2. If it is responsible for BTC's evaluation in some (or in a big) part, that means there is way less need for BTC. It muddies the picture.

So I would like to see tether removed from the picture first to see just how the different cryptos stabilize without it. Then we can go from there.

 

[RedDuke]

.....

So I would like to see tether removed from the picture first to see just how the different cryptos stabilize without it. Then we can go from there.

Exactly, then real price discovery can happen. But FOMO is strong and people invest. If all “stable” shit is removed it most likely would plummet hard.

 

[johnarb]

But YOU do mistrust all fiat.
..

I do! Check out my avatar

When the central banks print Trillions of $, they are stealing from everyone and giving it to ones being bailed out and the markets that are being propped up, check out the stock markets and the bond markets and oh, just about any market, lol. Real Estate should be crashing like a sh*t on a toilet, but not when the Fed got your back, Fed willing to buy debts, everything out there, junk bonds, whatever sh*t you got, no worries, Fed got you, bro.

Who gets hurt? Oh, someone working hourly wages where before he/she buys a loaf of bread with 5 minutes of his/her time, now it costs him/her 6 minutes of his/her time. Steal from the poor, give to the rich, Robin Hood in reverse.

Now me, I'm ok, still working remotely, and cryptos are gonna shoot up in values, imho

To hold cash is to get robbed. Invest in something, or get fkc*ed by the Central Banks of the world.

And Tether, well, that would be similar to how the gold market is manipulated with paper fake gold, but still that market functions as a hard money hedge. If you keep focusing on Tether, you'll miss out on the potential profits of trading/investing in cryptos market, imho. Good luck.

 

[RedDuke]

Indeed good luck. We all have our biases and opinions and trade/invest based on them. I only algo trade statistically proven models, on established instruments.

 

[summer_552]

I believe that it’s a little less than 4 days for the halvening to burst the bubble of a future bullish Bitcoin market, for 2 reasons: 1. As per the Stock-to-Flow model, the value of Bitcoin should be higher than the GDP of all countries in the world. As soon as the numbers are same with newer coins created, that would mean an infinite and then a negative price of Bitcoin. The current scenario focuses on just the scarcity in the equation. 2. Historically, in a relatively short time after the previous two Bitcoin halvings, the bubbles were inflated. After the first of 2012, the price of Bitcoin grew 100× in only a year. After the second in 2016, it took Bitcoin a year and a half to increase the price 30×. In both cases, Bitcoin exceeded the symbolic thresholds, first $ 1,000, and then $ 10,000. However, in both cases, it collapsed from its peaks and lost approximately 85% of the value. And, History is bound to repeat itself as seen on Wednesday this week when the price was brought back to $9,150 from a high of $9,395

 

[Amun Ra]

I believe that it’s a little less than 4 days for the halvening to burst the bubble of a future bullish Bitcoin market, for 2 reasons: 1. As per the Stock-to-Flow model, the value of Bitcoin should be higher than the GDP of all countries in the world. As soon as the numbers are same with newer coins created, that would mean an infinite and then a negative price of Bitcoin. The current scenario focuses on just the scarcity in the equation. 2. Historically, in a relatively short time after the previous two Bitcoin halvings, the bubbles were inflated. After the first of 2012, the price of Bitcoin grew 100× in only a year. After the second in 2016, it took Bitcoin a year and a half to increase the price 30×. In both cases, Bitcoin exceeded the symbolic thresholds, first $ 1,000, and then $ 10,000. However, in both cases, it collapsed from its peaks and lost approximately 85% of the value. And, History is bound to repeat itself as seen on Wednesday this week when the price was brought back to $9,150 from a high of $9,395

The next halving is now 1,316 days away.