Bitcoin "Freefall"
- Thread starter SunTrader
- Start date
Still freefall. Now under 43K. I told in november going long was too early.
We lost 35% since nov,16. In 2021 BTC gained 60%, so in a 7 weeks we lost over 50% of the 2021 profits.
- TSLA's BTC holdings are still doing good.
- As far as I know they bought at about $31,000.
This chart shows the compounded daily rate of return since 1/1/2011 and the rolling compounded 1 year return for BTC.
The compounded daily rate of return since 1/1/2011 is going down from +0.7855% to +0.2955. He lost 63% of his compounded return over the years. A strong BTC should stay above this return to show strength, but it is not. Even with a compounded return that dropped by 63%, BTC can almost never break out above the LT return.
In this period of 3,292 days, 789 days the rolling 1 year return was able to stay above the compounded daily rate of return since 1/1/2011. 2,503 days BTC was to weak to stay above the compounded daily rate of return. So in percentages: 23.87% of all days he was above, and 76.03% of all days he was under.
People get blinded by the few spikes up and the constant pumping to push BTC upwards. But the numbers show how weak BTC is. The biggest part of the spikes are neutralized by the long and huge drawdowns.
The compounded daily rate of return since 1/1/2011 is going down from +0.7855% to +0.2955. He lost 63% of his compounded return over the years. A strong BTC should stay above this return to show strength, but it is not. Even with a compounded return that dropped by 63%, BTC can almost never break out above the LT return.
In this period of 3,292 days, 789 days the rolling 1 year return was able to stay above the compounded daily rate of return since 1/1/2011. 2,503 days BTC was to weak to stay above the compounded daily rate of return. So in percentages: 23.87% of all days he was above, and 76.03% of all days he was under.
People get blinded by the few spikes up and the constant pumping to push BTC upwards. But the numbers show how weak BTC is. The biggest part of the spikes are neutralized by the long and huge drawdowns.
What are the chances of buying Bitcoin @ $1,000....will it ever trade down that low? I'm hoping to buy some if it does go that low...what is your opinion?
- Usually when a stock drops that much it is the end for them.
- I think the same would apply for a crypto currency.
I imagine there are far too many "believers"/strong hands for it to fall anywhere near that low.
It would take something monumental to shake the "bitcoin faithful".