Bitcoin failed to deliver.

[hilmy83]

You really want to go down that path? Let's see how sensitive you are then.

Your trading approach in summary is averaging down and hoping for the best. It was that way when you were a cowboy point and click trader and it was that way when you were dicking around with that breakout algorithm of yours that had so many people baffled.

The daily P&L was extremely smooth, but it didn't show the relatively extreme drawdown and risk you took on in order to generate those tiny daily gains. In essence, you were taking on small contracts going for tiny profits, but if you didn't get it and ended up red, you kept adding and martingaling deeply into the red until you lucked out and made that tiny green day.

Knowing the law of large numbers I warned you about this well in advance when I first saw the intraday equity curve and associated statistics, but you chose to ignore it and eventually it blew up. Your best days of performance was when your algorithm had a system failure.

Now you're back to point and click trading 'giving it one last shot'.

I think your chances may be better if you get johnarb as your mentor and just invest in Bitcoin instead. I'm sure he'll tell you where Bitcoin is in 2 years.

I'm already back on auto mode trading FDAX. But, very nice summary, I guess you read my history since I'm very transparent with my trading performance from the beginning; with returns still in double digits since I started the last journal.

Can't say much about you though since you don't have a trading journal. That's ok, being fully transparent on trading performance is not for everybody. @Overnight will tell ya

 

[Frederick Foresight]

Implying johnarb is a lucky n=1 is much too dismissive. There was a ton of work behind that call. And it’s not like he made that call and disappeared for 2 years. He understands bitcoin and crypto better than most and shares his knowledge and insight on ET day after day.

I wonder how much knowledge and work went into this assertion:

I need to remind you again, there's a process to bitcoin going to $1 Million, so it's like this, bitcoin will go to $100k first, then $200k, then $300k and on and on, but there may some pullbacks along the way, got it?

 

[jbusse]

I wonder how much knowledge and work went into this assertion:

You can't tell how much work is behind a quote like that. Some might devote a tremendous amount of energy to the topic before making such a statement.

 

[ElCubano]

Lucky is my friend who bought NVDA and has held it through thick and thing. without so much as ever buying another stock outside of his 401k.

 

[Pekelo]

Hal Finey quote

The funny part is that BTC went up WITHOUT becoming particularly useful or being the world currency. The most practical usage is still blackmail, and it is not even good at that.

Of course the OP is right, cryptos generally, but Bitcoin particularly didn't live up to its ORIGINAL promise. It is not unique, not fast, not anonymous, not cheap transfer, not resilient to authority, not easy to use, not diversified (moves with the market).etc. Some cryptos are some of those, but we don't hear much about them, specially not from Bitcoin fanboys, who hate competition and technological advancement.

The only thing is going for it is price. It is a meme stock, nothing more, nothing less. Might as well just buy GME, at least that is a real company...

And for fuck's sake let's change the denomination to 210 billion coins at 66 bucks, so it is at least meaningful for that 2 dozen actual users. Oh but that would mess with the message of being unique....

I could make Bitcoin even more unique. Let's change the denomination the other direction, only 21 coins ever existing, each is worths 66 billion bucks.

 

[ElCubano]

The only thing is going for it is price.

This is really the only thing that matters to someone who buys anything that we want to make money on. If you bought a great company and lost money would it matter that they made great widgets?

 

[Frederick Foresight]

This is really the only thing that matters to someone who buys anything that we want to make money on. If you bought a great company and lost money would it matter that they made great widgets?

Except that the fanboys are stressing that this is The New Order. That's the main point of contention. Another point is that a puff of smoke can generally disappear more quickly than a widget factory, risk mitigating measures notwithstanding. And the final point is that it is not the only game in town, although coiners would have you believe otherwise. Coiners can't seem to get enough of telling everyone else to "have fun staying poor." Is that not just asking begging for it? At the time of this writing, johnarb has 8 such posts to his name.

As an aside, I don't follow anyone's forecasts because, for the most part, they are worthless. And so, I don't know what accurate forecast johnarb actually made that some people here are referring to. I'm curious, so could someone please point me to it? And is it the only such price and time specific forecast that he made? Thanks.

 

[johnarb]

Except that the fanboys are stressing that this is The New Order. That's the main point of contention. Another point is that a puff of smoke can generally disappear more quickly than a widget factory, risk mitigating measures notwithstanding. And the final point is that it is not the only game in town, although coiners would have you believe otherwise. Coiners can't seem to get enough of telling everyone else to "have fun staying poor." Is that not just asking begging for it? At the time of this writing, johnarb has 8 such posts to his name.

As an aside, I don't follow anyone's forecasts because, for the most part, they are worthless. And so, I don't know what accurate forecast johnarb actually made that some people here are referring to. I'm curious, so could someone please point me to it? And is it the only such price and time specific forecast that he made? Thanks.

Have fun staying poor is not what you think it is

We say the phrase to US $ millionaires and billionaires

 

[johnarb]

Well, I wasn't one of them and I said so explicitly in my second post. To give some history, I was actually doing some research on Bitcoin during that period including reading various papers and the original whitepaper and I still think Bitcoin is fascinating. I'm not an outspoken critic on Bitcoin and I think it's very weird that the fanatics in this thread is not even open to any discussion or critical questions on the subject.

Personally, I was disappointed to see Bitcoin follow the general market so accurately. If it had held up during that turmoil when everything else dumped it would have been very impressive. My guess is Bitcoin is linked to the financial markets for the foreseeable future (or forever) and the institutional adoption is definitely part of the explanation.

As for responsibility, johnarb seems to suggest I have a responsibility if people sold their BTC holdings. Well, that goes the other way, too. What if Bitcoin actually tops out here? Surely johnarb and similar people have a responsibility, too.

There's something called survivorship bias. You can Google it if you don't know what it is. We tend to hear the succces stories, but not the failures (which are many, many more). I personally know people who lost their life savings and more in cryptocurrencies (not Bitcoin). I also know elderly people who invested their life savings into Bitcoin a few months ago. I hope they turn out okay.

John's call was a very good one, but it's still n = 1, so it's hard to say if there's any skill involved if we are to be completely honest.

Hell, my call was just as good if you look up the correlation I showed between NDX and BTC. LOL.

You keep posting my name so I guess I'm back from fucking off

You posted this during the bear market and if you look at the title, it's conclusive, and reading the OP

you were not looking for discussion,

you were looking for support on your decision not to buy bitcoin after it has crashed, you already decided not to buy bitcoin

and the price was still going down, that's how it is during bitcoin bear markets,

that is the main reason that you decided not to buy bitcoin as you had planned, you were scared, a normal emotion, btw, even hardcore Bitcoiners like me have that feeling of panic, ,

I posted videos of American Hodl and Junseth that try to normalize the cycle period of having our net worth crash in value

Anyway, you are either very very stupid, like clinically certifiable retard, or you are very very lazy, your first post on the forum was in Feb 2020 and you did not study Bitcoin to understand that it is the best money in the history of mankind

Did you read the Bitcoin Standard? if you haven't, why not?

and 2 years ago, you're pretending to have a discussion on Bitcoin, no you're a fucking liar, a pretender, MrMuppet replied to you with very lengthy posts, what happened??

You are fucking too stupid to understand? Or you are too fucking lazy?

You wanted everything spoon-fed to you, asshole, and you wasted all the information provided to you

And now you are dangling a carrot that maybe you'll buy bitcoin, FUCK YOU ASSHOLE, DO NOT BUY BITCOIN, YOU ARE TOO LATE

EVERYONE ON WALL STREET ALREADY BUYING BITCOIN, YOU HAD 4 YEARS HEAD START, YOU FUCKING SQUANDERED THE OPPORTUNITY TO FRONT RUN WALL STREET

Have a nice day!

 

[Sprout]

You keep posting my name so I guess I'm back from fucking off

You posted this during the bear market and if you look at the title, it's conclusive, and reading the OP

you were not looking for discussion,

you were looking for support on your decision not to buy bitcoin after it has crashed, you already decided not to buy bitcoin

and the price was still going down, that's how it is during bitcoin bear markets,

that is the main reason that you decided not to buy bitcoin as you had planned, you were scared, a normal emotion, btw, even hardcore Bitcoiners like me have that feeling of panic, ,

I posted videos of American Hodl and Junseth that try to normalize the cycle period of having our net worth crash in value

Anyway, you are either very very stupid, like clinically certifiable retard, or you are very very lazy, your first post on the forum was in Feb 2020 and you did not study Bitcoin to understand that it is the best money in the history of mankind

Did you read the Bitcoin Standard? if you haven't, why not?

and 2 years ago, you're pretending to have a discussion on Bitcoin, no you're a fucking liar, a pretender, MrMuppet replied to you with very lengthy posts, what happened??

You are fucking too stupid to understand? Or you are too fucking lazy?

You wanted everything spoon-fed to you, asshole, and you wasted all the information provided to you

And now you are dangling a carrot that maybe you'll buy bitcoin, FUCK YOU ASSHOLE, DO NOT BUY BITCOIN, YOU ARE TOO LATE

EVERYONE ON WALL STREET ALREADY BUYING BITCOIN, YOU HAD 4 YEARS HEAD START, YOU FUCKING SQUANDERED THE OPPORTUNITY TO FRONT RUN WALL STREET

Have a nice day!


View attachment 342311

dang @johnarb bringing receipts!
Bitcoin Standard is a good read. He blocked me on twitter though when challenged on some of his other views.