Why do you need a chart in percentage terms?
My chart showed both on separate scales. The point was to show the correlation.
Bitcoin failed to deliver.
- Thread starter Laissez Faire
- Start date
Why do you need a chart in percentage terms?
My chart showed both on separate scales. The point was to show the correlation.
Ah, ok then... I thought you were hoping to show performance... my bad.
Bitcoin bugs soon to be in disbelief as they get outcompeted by a literal joke.
Elon Musk received a $50B pay package and you are going to fade that? Good luck.
You need to pay attention.
I own doge and btc.
You own neither.
I got it right.
You failed.
Why did you think that? Why not just read what I write so clearly?
I raised two specific points in my original post regarding two popular claims and selling points regarding Bitcoin:
1) Bitcoin as a hedge against inflation
2) Bitcoin as an uncorrelated asset
As Bitcoin dumped along with equities and a rise in inflation, my claim was that Bitcoin had failed to deliver on those two points. That's all, but so many are reading so much more into it.
I never said that Bitcoin would go to zero, nor did I say it was a bad investment that wouldn't recover to new highs.
It speaks volumes about the Bitcoin fanatics in this thread if there is no room for asking any critical questions (which is common sense when it comes to every other investment) and you're told that you're a fucking asshole for doing so and being cursed at. Any sensible human being should do their own research before making any type of investment and that includes critical questions and an assessment of the potential risk.
If people sold their Bitcoin holdings because I simply raised a few questions on a forum, that's on them.
Personally, I'm sure Bitcoin is here to stay and I would not be surprised to see it keep appreciating and I may even buy some myself, but, I'm fairly sure that by now it's strongly correlated to the equity markets and central bank liquidity / money supply, so the next time equities sells off I suspect Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies will follow along.
By the way, you liked a post which called me a fucking asshole and to fuck off, so you don't need to ask me for trading advice in the future.
I liked that post too.
Not as an attack on you but in support of the story and the emotion that John expressed in the post.I wont speak for Noah but I'm guessing he's in the same boat.
The posters in your thread kicking investors while they were down,will be nowhere to be seen now.They arent the type of people to pop up now and say "Shit,I got that wrong.Nice call John." That would require backbone.
You're so sensitive it's pathetic. Do you even trade?
and to @NoahA, it's buy low sell high, let winners ride, and use b/e stops ...that's it lol
Well, I wasn't one of them and I said so explicitly in my second post. To give some history, I was actually doing some research on Bitcoin during that period including reading various papers and the original whitepaper and I still think Bitcoin is fascinating. I'm not an outspoken critic on Bitcoin and I think it's very weird that the fanatics in this thread is not even open to any discussion or critical questions on the subject.
Personally, I was disappointed to see Bitcoin follow the general market so accurately. If it had held up during that turmoil when everything else dumped it would have been very impressive. My guess is Bitcoin is linked to the financial markets for the foreseeable future (or forever) and the institutional adoption is definitely part of the explanation.
As for responsibility, johnarb seems to suggest I have a responsibility if people sold their BTC holdings. Well, that goes the other way, too. What if Bitcoin actually tops out here? Surely johnarb and similar people have a responsibility, too.
There's something called survivorship bias. You can Google it if you don't know what it is. We tend to hear the succces stories, but not the failures (which are many, many more). I personally know people who lost their life savings and more in cryptocurrencies (not Bitcoin). I also know elderly people who invested their life savings into Bitcoin a few months ago. I hope they turn out okay.
John's call was a very good one, but it's still n = 1, so it's hard to say if there's any skill involved if we are to be completely honest.
Hell, my call was just as good if you look up the correlation I showed between NDX and BTC. LOL.
You really want to go down that path? Let's see how sensitive you are then.
Your trading approach in summary is averaging down and hoping for the best. It was that way when you were a cowboy point and click trader and it was that way when you were dicking around with that breakout algorithm of yours that had so many people baffled.
The daily P&L was extremely smooth, but it didn't show the relatively extreme drawdown and risk you took on in order to generate those tiny daily gains. In essence, you were taking on small contracts going for tiny profits, but if you didn't get it and ended up red, you kept adding and martingaling deeply into the red until you lucked out and made that tiny green day.
Knowing the law of large numbers I warned you about this well in advance when I first saw the intraday equity curve and associated statistics, but you chose to ignore it and eventually it blew up. Your best days of performance was when your algorithm had a system failure.
Now you're back to point and click trading 'giving it one last shot'.
I think your chances may be better if you get johnarb as your mentor and just invest in Bitcoin instead. I'm sure he'll tell you where Bitcoin is in 2 years.
Implying johnarb is a lucky n=1 is much too dismissive. There was a ton of work behind that call. And it’s not like he made that call and disappeared for 2 years. He understands bitcoin and crypto better than most and shares his knowledge and insight on ET day after day.