John, you look at short term history and think it will repeat. 17K top and 69K top were reached with fake money, Tethers. Without fake money, such levels might not be seen for decades.
Bitcoin failed to deliver.
- Thread starter Laissez Faire
- Start date
John, you look at short term history and think it will repeat. 17K top and 69K top were reached with fake money, Tethers. Without fake money, such levels might not be seen for decades.
look guys, crypto right now looks like shit, let's not be delusional. Big projects are falling left and right DeFi is getting hammered, so just buying anything and waiting for a pump like 2021 doesn't work right now.
But that should have been obvious for anyone who has a little bit of experience. This stuff is volatile and volatility goes both ways. Crypto wont go away just like streaming, instagram, and twitter won't go away...which is obvious as well.
The difficult part is positioning and portfolio construction. Investing simply does not work in an environment where everything goes down. So you either move into cash and wait for the terminal nuke (that will come sooner or later) to scale in or you trade around your position with futures and options.
On the other hand a market like that is a gold mine for anyone who knows how to trade. People are getting dumped on left and right, everyone uber - bearish so price sensitivity goes down the drain. Have you ever checked the straddle runs?
Selling a 1200 ETH straddle gives you terminal break even points of 800 and 1700 for AUG and we still haven't nuked. If you just sit there and do nothing, you won't make nothing. Hedge, collect carry until the dust settles and then close your hedge. Or if that's beyond your scope of knowledge, at least withdraw everything into cold storage, send some money to Deribit or Bit.com and sell 25delta calls 30 days out to collect some premium.
The 1500 ETH call for JUL has 75$ premium, that's over 6% of spot for waiting 6 weeks....still better than watching and hoping.
This market has the moves and you can turn a couple of coins into a meaningful stack of cash if you know what you're doing...or you can pike 2 ES contracts to prove you're right
But that should have been obvious for anyone who has a little bit of experience. This stuff is volatile and volatility goes both ways. Crypto wont go away just like streaming, instagram, and twitter won't go away...which is obvious as well.
The difficult part is positioning and portfolio construction. Investing simply does not work in an environment where everything goes down. So you either move into cash and wait for the terminal nuke (that will come sooner or later) to scale in or you trade around your position with futures and options.
On the other hand a market like that is a gold mine for anyone who knows how to trade. People are getting dumped on left and right, everyone uber - bearish so price sensitivity goes down the drain. Have you ever checked the straddle runs?
Selling a 1200 ETH straddle gives you terminal break even points of 800 and 1700 for AUG and we still haven't nuked. If you just sit there and do nothing, you won't make nothing. Hedge, collect carry until the dust settles and then close your hedge. Or if that's beyond your scope of knowledge, at least withdraw everything into cold storage, send some money to Deribit or Bit.com and sell 25delta calls 30 days out to collect some premium.
The 1500 ETH call for JUL has 75$ premium, that's over 6% of spot for waiting 6 weeks....still better than watching and hoping.
This market has the moves and you can turn a couple of coins into a meaningful stack of cash if you know what you're doing...or you can pike 2 ES contracts to prove you're right
- 1 BTC will be worth $500K before 1/1/2026
- 1 BTC will be worth $1M before 1/1/2030
Think of the millions upon millions of people in Lebanon, Turkey, Argentina, Afghanistan, Peru and Sri Lanka and many other countries that would have been saved had they converted everything they have to Bitcoin
Then you can start a thread "Bitcoin has succeeded"
Read the thread below to see how successful Bitcoin has been
anything can happen, but it's very unlikely. BTC mining is extremely professional today and once there is just the slightest chance of a potential monopoly a new competitor will fill the gap.
I was somehow under the impression that to get started today was quite expensive. Why would someone get into mining if it might not be profitable?
Could you elaborate?
It’s possible this isn’t stated explicitly in the white paper, but inflation hedge, digital gold, store of value have certainly been part of the sales pitch.
Yeah. And I really dig that. I’m not a hater.
However, regardless of how cool this is I don’t really see the demand for this as a usecase.
Can anyone in this thread who own crypto sincerely say they do so for the use case?
It seems to me that most people invest in crypto to get rich. Not for the utility.
For me, fiat money works great. Bitcoin is super cool, but it’s not something I personally need.
I never said BTC failed per se. I’m sure it will outlive me.
I said it failed as a hedge against inflation and as an uncorrelated asset class.
On my cell, so short answer. May answer the rest of the comments tomorrow.
I will read that thread tomorrow. Immediately, it sounds like the equivalent of a lottery with a good amount of survivorship bias.
Plenty of people got filthy rich on BTC. Plenty of people are in deep drawdown on their BTC holdings.
I’ll try to stay out of arguments. My main point in this thread is that it failed to act as a store of value, hedge against inflation and uncorrelated asset. And which is why I’m personally not buying any. If I had a lot of risk capital, sure. But I prefer to stick with something more predictable and less risky considering my personal situation.
Thank you.
Wow, and they call me an optimistAbove is pure delusion
When BTC is over $500K each, you will say "reason for this is fake money tethers"
When BTC is over $1M each, you will say "reason for this is fake money tethers"
You know the saying about insanity, RedDuke?
I do, but that is Exactly why I am accumulating Ether. I do not believe in crypto valuations based on fake money, but believe in tech of blockchain. I was wrong, and Tether was not busted, so I decided to get in if prices fell from sky high. They did, and I am buying Ether according to my plan.