Bitcoin failed to deliver.

[M.W.]

And this rule of yourz, that BTC can't be lower in price within any 3 year period must hold because it held so in the past?....

There's a reason I did not quote you because it's not that I do not believe you. I made a general post but with reference to your new thread

The answer to your questions is Yes on both on a 3, 5 and 10 year timeline

Zoom out and you will see

There has not been a 3 year period that Bitcoin was lower in price, which means in the next 2.5 years, 1 BTC will be higher than $70K

 

[johnarb]

A little soft skin there, eh? Not every remark and points that you dislike are personal attacks even if you think the universe revolves around you. OP made some very valid points, you attempted to hammer into all of us for months/years. Yet here we are all of them debunked. Perhaps instead of playing the hurt little poodle you may show some introspection and admit that the pig is not all that shiny after all...

Nah, dude, OP is one of the fair Bitcoin critics and my post was not a reply to him, hence I did not quote him

and I'll have to deal with the no-coiner shitposts for a while, this crypto winter is far from over. I'll be ok, dude

 

[M.W.]

Just want to check I don't violate forum rules, are we only allowed to comment on cryptos if we trade them?

I'm referring to crypto trades.

 

[M.W.]

trustless way to send money? Now that I want to stay away from as far as possible...

BTC never was supposed to be an inflation hedge, that's only a narrative that evangelists, maxies and fanatics used to spread but if you ever dove deeper into it, you realized that has never been true. Just like gold isn't an inflation hedge or stocks or bonds, crypto isn't hedging anything.

BTC is a permissionless, censorship - free and trustless way to transfer money. That's its usecase and BTC delivers marvelously since it's inception, no matter which price it is trading at.

You could say it failed once the network failed and it's not possible anymore to do a money transfer, but as long as mining is profitable (which it is) and the network is active, everything's fine

 

[Baron]

Just want to check I don't violate forum rules, are we only allowed to comment on cryptos if we trade them?

You can comment. No problem. I was simply pointing out that the most vocal critics of cryptos in this thread seem to have made no effort at all to actually short any of it in accordance with their convictions, which is baffling to me.

 

[M.W.]

So the big picture you are communicating to all of us is: It's a shit show so lets all get dressed in suits and jump right into the mud. No, thank you. First lesson ever taught to me by my former mentor when I started out trading professionally was to never add to losers, ever. So far, the usefulness of cryptos have exactly been ZERO. So, staying away makes absolute logical sense to any rational person. Not just for now to sit out the crash debacle but for good. We happily let you guys take the fall...perhaps you win the lottery at the usual odds.

look guys, crypto right now looks like
shit, let's not be delusional. Big projects are falling left and right DeFi is getting hammered, so just buying anything and waiting for a pump like 2021 doesn't work right now.

But that should have been obvious for anyone who has a little bit of experience. This stuff is volatile and volatility goes both ways. Crypto wont go away just like streaming, instagram, and twitter won't go away...which is obvious as well.

The difficult part is positioning and portfolio construction. Investing simply does not work in an environment where everything goes down. So you either move into cash and wait for the terminal nuke (that will come sooner or later) to scale in or you trade around your position with futures and options.

On the other hand a market like that is a gold mine for anyone who knows how to trade. People are getting dumped on left and right, everyone uber - bearish so price sensitivity goes down the drain. Have you ever checked the straddle runs?

Selling a 1200 ETH straddle gives you terminal break even points of 800 and 1700 for AUG and we still haven't nuked. If you just sit there and do nothing, you won't make nothing. Hedge, collect carry until the dust settles and then close your hedge. Or if that's beyond your scope of knowledge, at least withdraw everything into cold storage, send some money to Deribit or Bit.com and sell 25delta calls 30 days out to collect some premium.

The 1500 ETH call for JUL has 75$ premium, that's over 6% of spot for waiting 6 weeks....still better than watching and hoping.

This market has the moves and you can turn a couple of coins into a meaningful stack of cash if you know what you're doing...or you can pike 2 ES contracts to prove you're right

 

[M.W.]

That is actually a fair comment. I stay away because I do not even consider it a tradable asset, just a complete and utter unbeliever. Why not short? Because there are nutty morons out there who have no problem to pump up some of those coins and bomb the hell out of shorts until the next bad news hits another coin. Not tradable volatility imo.

You can comment. No problem. I was simply pointing out that the most vocal critics of cryptos in this thread seem to have made no effort at all to actually short any of it in accordance with their convictions, which is baffling to me.

 

[tifoji]

BTC never was supposed to be an inflation hedge, that's only a narrative that evangelists, maxies and fanatics used to spread but if you ever dove deeper into it, you realized that has never been true. Just like gold isn't an inflation hedge or stocks or bonds, crypto isn't hedging anything.

BTC is a permissionless, censorship - free and trustless way to transfer money. That's its usecase and BTC delivers marvelously since it's inception, no matter which price it is trading at.

You could say it failed once the network failed and it's not possible anymore to do a money transfer, but as long as mining is profitable (which it is) and the network is active, everything's fine

Not exactly permissionless since now active databases of transactions since inception are analyzed and CFTC maintains a list of blacklisted addresses. Tons of examples of people getting busted by BTC tracking and also exchanges consuming customers BTC because it came from suspicious addresses etc. In fact last year several mining companies bent their knee to the CFTC and have agreed to blacklist the transactions themselves. So even if someone wants to pay a hefty fee to transfer out or into blacklisted address, you'd have to have >45% Hash rate of the entire BTC network. Not practical since long ago when ASICs were celebrated by those who would grow to become maxis and con artists. This list is also growing.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1535875000925839360

BTC has led the way to CBDCs as maxis have also continued to fight AGAINST privacy ("crypto") because they loved the fact that the govt allows this Tether fueled open ponzi to suck the cash out of people making it easier for them with whatever their agendas are these days.

BTC is full of such narratives and it seems there smaller level con jobs happened in forums, reddit (where r/bitcoin notoriously censors info and is the most censored sub in all of reddit), twitter, you name it.

Also all of this censorship resistance nonsense failed in the Truck situation in Canada. They swiftly banned the addresses and also traced the donations coming in/out everything. Journalists have been busted in El Salvador and the govt tracks their official wallets too ala CBDC.

To me this is low Alex Gladstein level propaganda being pushed still here in the forums.

 

[M.W.]

Absolutely would this be a bad call. Look, you seem to look at this in terms of absolute numbers. But that is not how long-term profitable records are built. Holding onto a 90% drawdown is from a relative risk perspective insane, dumb, and an absolutely poor call. No matter it goes up a million percent afterwards. Why? Because the overwhelming empirical evidence points to the probability of an asset losing 90% and then gaining 1000% to approach zero.

Well if the asset dropped 90% and then gained 1000% a couple of years later, would it still be a bad call?

 

[RedDuke]

You can comment. No problem. I was simply pointing out that the most vocal critics of cryptos in this thread seem to have made no effort at all to actually short any of it in accordance with their convictions, which is baffling to me.

The main issue you can not short this shit and be sure to collect. Yes we have CME futures, but have you seen the margins???