No, I’m suggesting that the ETF could short futures instead of going long. Not likely but it’s possible. Other commodities ETFs play both sides so why couldn’t BlackRocks ETF do the same?
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Bitcoin ETF?
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What if BlackRock’s ETF turns out to be bearish on BTC? They could short the hell out of it on the futures market so all of the potential added dollars we’re talking about would push price down….
It doesn't matter what blackrock does...bitcoin is on its extension and will fulfill it. After that, some catalyst will trigger the pullback but again it will be only to facilitate the pullback.
You guys need to relax.
Since summer, I have been so sure of the extension that we are now seeing propagate would occur before the end of the year that I held a BITO 200 Dec29 16 call position with a drawdown over 80%...$35k down to $5k equity. Even the broker lady on the phone said maybe I should think about using a stop loss next time, or perhaps try the paper account lol. I closed it at a break even on Tuesday. If I had used a stop loss I would have realized a 2-3k loss. I currently have another call position that was also down over 80% that it now up 20k. I'm thinking of letting that one run...not sure if we are going to break up another leg after the daily triangle forming...it could pull back a bit first which would tank the IV and since it expires in January I may be be at the same profit or less in 3 months with time decay...I may consider rolling out. My old adage, "if you're not sure what to do, do nothing."
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When I’m long an option I never think in terms of drawdown. Once the option is purchased it doesn’t affect my acct balance if it moves against me. I treat them like an insurance policy or lottery ticket. If I decide that the market definitely isn’t going my way I’ll look at liquidation the option before it matures.It doesn't matter what blackrock does...bitcoin is on its extension and will fulfill it. After that, some catalyst will trigger the pullback but again it will be only to facilitate the pullback.
You guys need to relax.
Since summer, I have been so sure of the extension that we are now seeing propagate would occur before the end of the year that I held an option position with a drawdown over 80%...$35k down to $5k equity. Even the broker lady on the phone said maybe I should think about using a stop loss next time, or perhaps try the paper account lol. I closed it at a break even on Tuesday. If I had used a stop loss I would have realized a 2-3k loss. I currently have another call position that was also down over 80% that it now up 20k. I'm thinking of letting that one run...not sure if we are going to break up another leg after the daily triangle forming...it could pull back a bit first which would tank the IV and since it expires in January I may be be at the same profit or less in 3 months with time decay...I may consider rolling out.
No, I’m suggesting that the ETF could short futures instead of going long. Not likely but it’s possible. Other commodities ETFs play both sides so why couldn’t BlackRocks ETF do the same?
short bitcoin future etfs already exist
What if BlackRocks ETF decides BTC is overvalued and shorts the futures market instead of buying BTC?short bitcoin future etfs already exist
I’m just playing devils advocate. Everyone assumes that the BR ETF is a bullish factor. What if it’s actually bearish?
What if BlackRocks ETF decides BTC is overvalued and shorts the futures market instead of buying BTC?
I’m just playing devils advocate. Everyone assumes that the BR ETF is a bullish factor. What if it’s actually bearish?
They won't/can't because Bitcoin hasn't finished it's extension. If they did then other buyers would step in and they'd lose their shirts.
What if BlackRocks ETF decides BTC is overvalued and shorts the futures market instead of buying BTC?
I’m just playing devils advocate. Everyone assumes that the BR ETF is a bullish factor. What if it’s actually bearish?
I am still not really following. Again, short bitcoin ETFs, that hold future short already exists.
I am positive that once to spot bitcoin ETF gets approved a short spot bitcoin ETF is not far behind but to have that short spot bitcoin ETF crush the market (theoretically) it’s not Blackrock that we need to short a bunch, they would have to convince all their customers to buy the short spot bitcoin ETF.
basically what I’m saying is it is not the ETF issuer is decides how long or short people get, they just provide the product and it is the customers of that product that decide how much money is in it and hence how much buying or selling pressure is exerted.
I’m under the assumption that the ETF will be able go long or short at its discretion. Are you saying that BlackRocks ETF will be limited to the long side?I am still not really following. Again, short bitcoin ETFs, that hold future short already exists.
I am positive that once to spot bitcoin ETF gets approved a short spot bitcoin ETF is not far behind but to have that short spot bitcoin ETF crush the market (theoretically) it’s not Blackrock that we need to short a bunch, they would have to convince all their customers to buy the short spot bitcoin ETF.
basically what I’m saying is it is not the ETF issuer is decides how long or short people get, they just provide the product and it is the customers of that product that decide how much money is in it and hence how much buying or selling pressure is exerted.
I love your confidence. Pretty soon you’ll start using WD Gann methods to be even more confident.They won't/can't because Bitcoin hasn't finished it's extension. If they did then other buyers would step in and they'd lose their shirts.
I’m under the assumption that the ETF will be able go long or short at its discretion. Are you saying that BlackRocks ETF will be limited to the long side?[/QUOTE
yes, unless it’s an actively managed ETF they usually don’t work like that. All the ETFs that are awaiting approval are explicitly long only spot bitcoin ETFs, with no timing or hedging or anything.
Again in the future, there could be explicitly short between ETFs, and I do expect that to happen, but right now they are just long only. They cannot go longer short at their discretion.