Bitcoin ETF?

long said:
Spu

Sounds familiar…..
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Buy the rumor sell the news has not materialized much in bitcoin, usually it's buy the rumor and buy the news

With stocks, people with insider info buy the stock and load up on options and dump as the news is released

With bitcoin, 99% of the nocoiners hate bitcoin and wouldn't buy it even knowing that etf might get approved soon, and the options are out of reach of the reddit crowd

And bitcoiners are psycopaths, the ones that are still hodling, they did not sell when bitcoin goes down 75%+ nor sell when bitcoin goes up over 100%, so very very unlikely they will sell a 10, 20, 30, 50% price move after the news

low time preference

long said:
Had

Haven’t worked that out yet
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Been around for a long time

https://opendime.com/
 
long said:
That’s the part I was thinking of. When banks can count BTC as an asset like cash deposits and real estate leins they will be able to leverage it with the fed to borrow funds to lend out. Using your figures it would allow banks to borrow $10T (trillion) to lend out just on the BTC assets alone. I just pissed my pants.
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Yes, but US banks are not allowed to hold bitcoin as an asset in their treasury. In Europe, it's approved up to 5%

It may happen in the US, Blackrock would be able to convince of any rule-change, look at the recent change in the FASB rules for corporations holding bitcoin in their treasury

The first step is the etf and we watch the multiplier effect as a demand shock happens for a very scarce asset

Blackrock CEO said 5 years ago bitcoin is an index of money laundering asset, and 2 years ago said there's no demand from the customers to now talking on Bloomberg and CNBC how good bitcoin is now

Similar change in tone with JPM CEO

They see enormous potential with value creation of a new global asset

The multiplier effect is huge

Between Microstrategy and Tesla putting buying a few billion $ worth of bitcoins and the price shot up from $9k to over $60k

Price is set at the margin, similar to real estate you got 100,000 houses in NY but only ones for sale are a few hundred to a thousand. Same as AAPL stock, you got most of the stock unavailable

Same with bitcoin, and Blackrock knows this, which is why they want to use OPM to direct billions of $ to an asset that will absolutely go bonkers to the upside and unlocking enormous value

And the good thing is that bitcoiners are pyscopaths, they do not sell all their bitcoins so no one will be dumping on them, unlike every major corporation executive since they can issue more with a BoD vote

This confused Druckenmiller


https://news.bitcoin.com/bitcoin-fomo-paul-tudor-jones-stan-druckenmiller-invest-millions-btc/


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Manipulation concerns from paper BItcoin aside, which, honestly, I think is overblown, this is an enormous deal when the spot bitcoin ETF finally does come out

Why do I say that? As the first poster noted there are already spot bitcoin ETFs in the world. The problem is there are no spot bitcoin ETFs in the US.

I looked into buying a foreign spot Bitcoin ETF with my US based IB account and long story short, It is not worth it from a tax or headache perspective for US investor to invest in the foreign bitcoin ETF’s. We need a US based spot bitcoin ETF to allieve those headaches.

It is hard to ballpark the demand for this product, but it will be huge in my opinion. There are so many investors that would like some exposure to bitcoin, but would not want to buy it from a crypto exchange, custody it in their self custody wallet, or go through all the technical harder hurdles that that involves. You can disagree with that if you want but that is how many people think about it.

And let’s be real for a second, in the US high net worth individuals are mostly old people. Old people do not want to self custody bitcoin. Old people do not want to worry about being hacked. Old people do not want to open another account. Old people just want to buy an asset through their existing financial advisor in their existing brokerage account and spot bitcoin ETF allows them to do that. It’s a huge deal.
 
long said:
how could they determine that the wallet is intended to be single use? Wouldn’t it be impossible to prove a persons intention to use a wallet only once?
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With any rule, it's not about catching you, it's about the punishment if they catch you

If they say it's illegal and you still do it, then you know you're gonna be in trouble if they catch you even if they are not actively working on catching you
 
long said:
I’m a futures guy and I was sure that price would crash as soon as the BTC contract was started. In my mind it was the first time that people would have the opportunity to short the stuff after a long run where could basically only buy it. I was dead wrong and it went up.

Your comment on 5x leverage is a little off. Even though 5x leverage is technically correct isn’t not sustainable. If you buy/sell all the contracts your account can cover and the market goes against you immediately you’re squeezed out. My rule for number of contracts is 1x to 2x in any market. I get leverage by trading several markets. I only get squeezed if all of my positions are against me (yes it has happened). I personally believe that BTC is going up. I think that Fink leaked the fake news to see how the market would react and he seems VERY happy about the reaction during his interviews.

I started this thread after learning that there are already 7 ETF’s out there. I was thinking that was enough and that adding one more wouldn’t be a major event. I now realize that I was naive in not accounting for Blackrocks size. I’m not putting more than 5% of my assets in it but I am thinking of buying crypto as Christmas gifts this year!
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Only 5%? Why even bother? I put in 100% of my trading capital. What are you worried it's going to zero? lol I'll take my chances on that one.
 
wxytrader said:
Only 5%? Why even bother? I put in 100% of my trading capital. What are you worried it's going to zero? lol I'll take my chances on that one.
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I just don’t know enough about it, I also don’t believe in it as a potential currency because it it isn’t backed by anything physical and it isn’t recognized as currency by any major governments. Zero is a real possibility in my mind.
 
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