Bitcoin ETF?

johnarb said:
These Blackrock, Fidelity et al bitcoin spot etf applications once approved will buy "physical" bitcoins, the estimate is about $200B of new money will buy bitcoins from all these etf's in the next 5-10 years
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Blackrock definitely will muscle their way in, as that Youtuber commented. They're on the board of just about all of the S&P500 companies. Would they not be able to "persuade" these companies to adopt bitcoin as a medium of exchange?
 
schizo said:
Blackrock definitely will muscle their way in, as that Youtuber commented. They're on the board of just about all of the S&P500 companies. Would they not be able to "persuade" these companies to adopt bitcoin as a medium of exchange?
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Not medium of exchange, collateral asset, like a global reserve asset to replace sovereign debt that are crashing

Blackrock, Fidelity, et al, will store all the bitcoins in cold wallets with their custodial partner Coinbase and create loans against them, being the foundation of creating trillions of new money like banks create money through new debt issuance

Prolly nothing...
 
NoahA said:
I just watched a video with Willy Woo and he almost sounded bearish on BTC. His point was that futures were able to suppress price way too much, and that $12 billion for example was all that was needed in order to suppress $60 billion of spot buying simply because of the 5x leverage. He equated this to how the financial markets worked up till now, and especially I guess to how it works for gold and silver.

But I was quite disappointed with his viewpoint. I'm not 100% certain how CME determines the price of bitcoin, but I think it comes from several exchanges. But these exchanges also sell spot bitcoin. What happens when people want to buy bitcoin at the stated price, but there is no inventory? For gold its easy, the dealer just doesn't have any. But with bitcoin, if there is a quoted price, but the exchange won't let you withdraw, then I think the game will be up. This entire derivatives business can fall flat on its face if you ask me.

I would love to learn more about how these prices are set, but considering that each time I buy bitcoin I withdraw, someone is gonna be left holding the bag one day, and it won't be me! I will have the fucking bitcoin and the CME can go fuck themselves. I understand futures are cash settled, but how on earth are futures prices going to be able to control spot prices when there is no inventory for sale??? Spot prices should be setting the price, and if a major player wants to absorb organic bitcoin buying by trying to force the futures price down, if this in fact does drop the futures price, I just don't see how the spot price will be affected at all.
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I’m a futures guy and I was sure that price would crash as soon as the BTC contract was started. In my mind it was the first time that people would have the opportunity to short the stuff after a long run where could basically only buy it. I was dead wrong and it went up.

Your comment on 5x leverage is a little off. Even though 5x leverage is technically correct isn’t not sustainable. If you buy/sell all the contracts your account can cover and the market goes against you immediately you’re squeezed out. My rule for number of contracts is 1x to 2x in any market. I get leverage by trading several markets. I only get squeezed if all of my positions are against me (yes it has happened). I personally believe that BTC is going up. I think that Fink leaked the fake news to see how the market would react and he seems VERY happy about the reaction during his interviews.

I started this thread after learning that there are already 7 ETF’s out there. I was thinking that was enough and that adding one more wouldn’t be a major event. I now realize that I was naive in not accounting for Blackrocks size. I’m not putting more than 5% of my assets in it but I am thinking of buying crypto as Christmas gifts this year!
 
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johnarb said:
Not medium of exchange, collateral asset, like a global reserve asset to replace sovereign debt that are crashing

Blackrock, Fidelity, et al, will store all the bitcoins in cold wallets with their custodial partner Coinbase and create loans against them, being the foundation of creating trillions of new money like banks create money through new debt issuance

Prolly nothing...
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Holy schnikes! That sounds like Bond villain level manipulation….

They’re going to pull off George Straight’s con by actually creating oceanfront property in Arizona. I mean really? Will the Fed view the crypto as actual assets and lend a bank actual money against it? What is the current ratio the banks can borrow from the fed? I’m thinking 10:1? That will be TRILLIONS of new dollars created. Holy fook!!!
 
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It is one of those trades where everyone has the same position, the news comes out and then...

...drum roll...

... it goes the opposite way before it plays out.
 
long said:
I’m a futures guy and I was sure that price would crash as soon as the BTC contract was started. In my mind it was the first time that people would have the opportunity to short the stuff after a long run where could basically only buy it. I was dead wrong and it went up.

Your comment on 5x leverage is a little off. Even though 5x leverage is technically correct isn’t not sustainable. If you buy/sell all the contracts your account can cover and the market goes against you immediately you’re squeezed out. My rule for number of contracts is 1x to 2x in any market. I get leverage by trading several markets. I only get squeezed if all of my positions are against me (yes it has happened). I personally believe that BTC is going up. I think that Fink leaked the fake news to see how the market would react and he seems VERY happy about the reaction during his interviews.

I started this thread after learning that there are already 7 ETF’s out there. I was thinking that was enough and that adding one more wouldn’t be a major event. I now realize that I was naive in not accounting for Blackrocks size. I’m not putting more than 5% of my assets in it but I am thinking of buying crypto as Christmas gifts this year!
More...

Keep us posted on the xmas gift idea.

How are you thinking you would do that? Gifting of a funded wallet?
 
long said:
Holy schnikes! That sounds like Bond villain level manipulation….

They’re going to pull off George Straight’s con by actually creating oceanfront property in Arizona. I mean really? Will the Fed view the crypto as actual assets and lend a bank actual money against it? What is the current ratio the banks can borrow from the fed? I’m thinking 10:1? That will be TRILLIONS of new dollars created. Holy fook!!!
More...

Not quite with that much leverage, more like equities type of leverage, margin, same as other etf's,

If Blackrock owns 1M bitcoins and price per btc has gone up to $1M/btc, at 50% ltv, $500B of new money (liquidity creation), if my math is not off, not a math-wiz

The real magic is when those $500B gets deposited to the TradFi banks, i.e. JPM, BofA et al and those deposits are leveraged 20 to 1
 
johnarb said:
The real magic is when those $500B gets deposited to the TradFi banks, i.e. JPM, BofA et al and those deposits are leveraged 20 to 1
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That’s the part I was thinking of. When banks can count BTC as an asset like cash deposits and real estate leins they will be able to leverage it with the fed to borrow funds to lend out. Using your figures it would allow banks to borrow $10T (trillion) to lend out just on the BTC assets alone. I just pissed my pants.
 
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