Bitcoin ETF?
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Because BlackRock is one of the largest asset managers out there with over 9 trillion in assets. That big fake green candle on the fake news should tell you what you're in for when it really does get approved...
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Because Black Rock, along with Vanguard and State Street, controls the entire S&P 500. There's essentially no company in the S&P 500 that they do not invest in. And those S&P 500 companies have indirect influence on the world economy. Get it now?
I’m gonna buy some more
In the US, there are only bitcoin futures etf's, based on CME futures cash-settled
No demand for "physical" bitcoins from bitcoin futures etf's
These Blackrock, Fidelity et al bitcoin spot etf applications once approved will buy "physical" bitcoins, the estimate is about $200B of new money will buy bitcoins from all these etf's in the next 5-10 years
Bitcoin price is set at the margin, just like real estate, art collectibles, and other assets, BofA has a multiplier
tl;dr bitcoin price will go to over $5M in the next 5-10 years
and still the psycopath bitcoiners will never sell all our bitcoins
No demand for "physical" bitcoins from bitcoin futures etf's
These Blackrock, Fidelity et al bitcoin spot etf applications once approved will buy "physical" bitcoins, the estimate is about $200B of new money will buy bitcoins from all these etf's in the next 5-10 years
Bitcoin price is set at the margin, just like real estate, art collectibles, and other assets, BofA has a multiplier
tl;dr bitcoin price will go to over $5M in the next 5-10 years
and still the psycopath bitcoiners will never sell all our bitcoins
I just watched a video with Willy Woo and he almost sounded bearish on BTC. His point was that futures were able to suppress price way too much, and that $12 billion for example was all that was needed in order to suppress $60 billion of spot buying simply because of the 5x leverage. He equated this to how the financial markets worked up till now, and especially I guess to how it works for gold and silver.
But I was quite disappointed with his viewpoint. I'm not 100% certain how CME determines the price of bitcoin, but I think it comes from several exchanges. But these exchanges also sell spot bitcoin. What happens when people want to buy bitcoin at the stated price, but there is no inventory? For gold its easy, the dealer just doesn't have any. But with bitcoin, if there is a quoted price, but the exchange won't let you withdraw, then I think the game will be up. This entire derivatives business can fall flat on its face if you ask me.
I would love to learn more about how these prices are set, but considering that each time I buy bitcoin I withdraw, someone is gonna be left holding the bag one day, and it won't be me! I will have the fucking bitcoin and the CME can go fuck themselves. I understand futures are cash settled, but how on earth are futures prices going to be able to control spot prices when there is no inventory for sale??? Spot prices should be setting the price, and if a major player wants to absorb organic bitcoin buying by trying to force the futures price down, if this in fact does drop the futures price, I just don't see how the spot price will be affected at all.
If you print money and use it to sell futures then you control the price. See gold.
You totally ignore the power of self custody. Think about what happened to the gold standard. Eventually the US was forced to remove it because too many people were trying to exchange dollars for gold and gold was running out.
If the futures price of bitcoin is kept low, but nobody can deliver the bitcoins for the same price, then the spot price and futures price will deviate, and I'm not sure what happens then.
Arbs make money.
Gold futures is a bad analogy. There is very little demand for physical gold compared to its supplies. There's supposedly billions of tons sitting at bank vaults fort knox and home safes, but so fucking what, they are gathering dust, useless rocks
There's actual demand for "physical" bitcoins. Much more useful than wearing around your neck or wrist
Oil and Orange Juice futures are better analogy to the bitcoin futures
The Blackrock and the $17.7 Trillion AUM under these wealth managers applying for bitcoin spot etf's will create a demand shock as they buy "physical" bitcoins and take out of the circulation as they store at their Coinbase custodial partner
In the short term, bitcoin futures cash-settled can suppress the price due to arbitrage opportunities
The US cannot print oil nor OJ, and they cannot print bitcoins
tl;dr
Don't worry about the manipulators, they can do so during times of low bitcoin price volatility
What will change is when hundreds of thousands of sales people RIA's employed by Blackrock, Fidelity, et al shilling bitcoin as investments to every joe, jane, grandmas, pension funds, insurance, sovereign wealth...
Prolly nothing...