Bitcoin drawdowns

[blink18]

I'm a bitcoin fan and want to believe this to be true .. but I see no evidence for it. People hypothesized that institutional adoption would lead to lower volatility but again empirically this has not been the case.

Sure maybe BTC is less volatile than the very early days (2009-2011) but it's basically the same vol as the last several years. Annualized vol of roughly 80%(!). Plus we had several drawdowns of over 30% this year alone (and one >50%) yet despite all of that BTC is STILL up 100% or so for the year LOL.

Crazy asset.

If you use longer periods (+100 days) annual SD, you can see volatility is declining.

 

[GlobalMacro90]

If you use longer periods (+100 days) annual SD, you can see volatility is declining.

Eh I dunno man. Again I want this to be true but I don't see it.

Here is rolling 100-day standard deviation for BTC ... certainly lower than 2011-2013 but looks to me to be roughly the same vol since call it 2015...

 

[momo3HC]

I can`t get the idea of this thread. BTC is a long term game with ups and downs for sure but that`s normal.

 

[Grandeurtrader]

I put together this which shows all the drawdowns over the past 10 years.

There have been two over 80%. Investing $10,000 in either Dec 2013 or Dec 2017, and hodling, would have resulted in your account shrinking to about $1,500 before recovering.

The data for 2021 may be premature if there are any further price falls in the next few months.

View attachment 273998

so do you mean bitcoin drawdown this year will be less (in percent) than any years before ?? is it implying that we already in bottom price of bitcoin too??

Its good thing you find there, but i think bitcoin will still make bottom price before any new high. too bad crypto is a new market, the data we have is pretty small compared than other market

 

[Ed48]

so do you mean bitcoin drawdown this year will be less (in percent) than any years before ?? is it implying that we already in bottom price of bitcoin too??

It's too early to tell. If BTC doesn't fall below $30k in the coming months, then the maximum drawdown would have been around 55% (for coins bought @ $65k in April).

There's no way of knowing if $30k was the bottom. It's anyone's guess what might happen next year.

 

[Overnight]

It's too early to tell. If BTC doesn't fall below $30k in the coming months, then the maximum drawdown would have been around 55% (for coins bought @ $65k in April).

There's no way of knowing if $30k was the bottom. It's anyone's guess what might happen next year.

If BTC is truly tracking the SP now, which WTI started doing in a fashion last year, then BTC should have no problem avoiding that 30K level.