Bitcoin, Currencies and Fragility- Taleb

A

Arnie

click the link and download .pdf on right

Comment 1: Why BTC is worth exactly 0 Gold and other precious metals are largely maintenance free, do not degrade over an historical horizon, and do not require maintenance to refresh their physical properties over time. Cryptocurrencies require a sustained amount of interest in them.

https://arxiv.org/abs/2106.14204
 
Baron said:
He's been dead wrong about BTC for over a decade now. How much longer is he going to bury himself on this subject?
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Taleb loves to be wrong. A very articulate and intelligent man who has been consistently unable to turn his wisdom and experience into any meaningful market outperformance for how many decades now? I'll grant you he has tremendous self-promotion and marketing skills which he has monetized.
 
jys78 said:
Taleb loves to be wrong. A very articulate and intelligent man who has been consistently unable to turn his wisdom and experience into any meaningful market outperformance for how many decades now? I'll grant you he has tremendous self-promotion and marketing skills which he has monetized.
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Er...

A tail-risk hedge fund advised by Nassim Taleb, author of “The Black Swan,” returned 3,612% in March, paying off massively for clients who invested in it as protection against a plunge in stock prices.

The fund, managed by Universa Investments of Miami, had a year-to-date return of 4,144% through the end of last month, according to an investor letter from President and Chief Investment Officer Mark Spitznagel that was obtained by Bloomberg...

Granted that it's unclear how much of the investment process was driven by Taleb himself.
 
Specterx said:
Er...

A tail-risk hedge fund advised by Nassim Taleb, author of “The Black Swan,” returned 3,612% in March, paying off massively for clients who invested in it as protection against a plunge in stock prices.

The fund, managed by Universa Investments of Miami, had a year-to-date return of 4,144% through the end of last month, according to an investor letter from President and Chief Investment Officer Mark Spitznagel that was obtained by Bloomberg...

Granted that it's unclear how much of the investment process was driven by Taleb himself.
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It's fantasy. The return post was on the debit req of the tail hedge; not the AUM. Spitz gets away with it bc it's an overlay.
 
Specterx said:
Er...

A tail-risk hedge fund advised by Nassim Taleb, author of “The Black Swan,” returned 3,612% in March, paying off massively for clients who invested in it as protection against a plunge in stock prices.

The fund, managed by Universa Investments of Miami, had a year-to-date return of 4,144% through the end of last month, according to an investor letter from President and Chief Investment Officer Mark Spitznagel that was obtained by Bloomberg...

Granted that it's unclear how much of the investment process was driven by Taleb himself.
More...
In his book Spitznagel tried to distance himself from Taleb quite a bit, which I found quite surprising
He says Taleb was hired in a "stricly-hands off, passive capacity". He also said his time with Taleb at Empirica (their previous hedge fund) was the lowest return of his career "before or since".He also criticized his barbell approach
I did some back of the napkin math on Empirica returns and it looks like they made 6% compounded (not that much above the risk free rate) a year with losing years in 2001 and 2002, years with black swans and equities tanking. So its no wonder he is trying to distance himself from Taleb. Taleb is not that great at making money, only at keeping it
 
destriero said:
It's fantasy. The return post was on the debit req of the tail hedge; not the AUM. Spitz gets away with it bc it's an overlay.
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Lol. Still compares favorably to the typical "I made 300% on my calls!!!", but definitely less impressive.
 
Specterx said:
Er...

A tail-risk hedge fund advised by Nassim Taleb, author of “The Black Swan,” returned 3,612% in March, paying off massively for clients who invested in it as protection against a plunge in stock prices.

The fund, managed by Universa Investments of Miami, had a year-to-date return of 4,144% through the end of last month, according to an investor letter from President and Chief Investment Officer Mark Spitznagel that was obtained by Bloomberg...

Granted that it's unclear how much of the investment process was driven by Taleb himself.
More...

This lacks context. Look at the overall picture. His funds have been a proven failure over time.

Edit: agree w/destriero's comment. That posted return is basically meaningless.
 
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