bitcoin bubble getting out of control...surging non stop. up over $600 now

Quote from S2007S:

Bitcoins could easily lose half their value in days....
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That's what happened after Bitcoin reached $266 in April.

If you bought at the "bubble peak" in April, you'd be up roughly 100% since then.

Sure Bitcoin could be worth less than $1 in the coming years. But it could also be worth over $1 million. I doubt anyone can say with any amount of confidence what the price will be in future years.
 
1 million in your dreams . No currency has ever hit such exchange rate except in case of Mugabe style hyperinflation which we probably will not have, we could argue that btc is already acting as if we had that. If you believe that where will gold be ? Gold is trending down, that's a divergence with btc, if both were rising steadily and we had signs of inflation coming, you could make a case for btc. Instead we fa ce a deflation threat IMO.
So btc is acting like there is hyperinflation NOW. Instead we face deflation . What do you think will happen when reality sets in ?
 
Quote from m22au:

That's what happened after Bitcoin reached $266 in April.

If you bought at the "bubble peak" in April, you'd be up roughly 100% since then.

Sure Bitcoin could be worth less than $1 in the coming years. But it could also be worth over $1 million. I doubt anyone can say with any amount of confidence what the price will be in future years.
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m22au,
If you have to take a position in bitcoins today, how much of your net worth will you invest? and for how long would you keep the trade?

Your silver trade starting 10 years ago impressed me a lot, so maybe when you say bitcoins might be worth 100k or 1million, I am very interested to hear what actual position would you take in this asset?

And finally, if you have not taken any position in bitcoins yet and if you answer above question affirmatively, why have you not gone ahead and taken that position yet?
 
Sorry about sounding dumb... but while I think I understand the concept of bitcoin money movement from one place to another, I'm at a loss as to understand the value of bitcoin.

What does a $600 value represent? Surely somebody doesn't buy bitcoins at some price and see its value fluctuate as per this valuation.. ??

IOW... you exchange your $USDs into bitcoins and their (currency) value fluctuates like this??
 
Quote from trade2live:

What do you think will happen when reality sets in ?
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Hyperinflation isn't a necessary condition for Bitcoin (or gold) to appreciate against the US Dollar.

It's dangerous to assume that $600 is a "bubble peak" just because it's gone up by a lot.

I really don't know where Bitcoin will be in the years to come. And I have no vested interest as I have no position in the currency.
 
Quote from gmst:

m22au,
If you have to take a position in bitcoins today, how much of your net worth will you invest? and for how long would you keep the trade?

Your silver trade starting 10 years ago impressed me a lot, so maybe when you say bitcoins might be worth 100k or 1million, I am very interested to hear what actual position would you take in this asset?

And finally, if you have not taken any position in bitcoins yet and if you answer above question affirmatively, why have you not gone ahead and taken that position yet?
More...

I have no position in Bitcoin now - and I'm perfectly comfortable with that.

I don't understand your last question sorry - I'm not sure what "if you answer above question affirmatively" means.
 
Quote from Scataphagos:

Sorry about sounding dumb... but while I think I understand the concept of bitcoin money movement from one place to another, I'm at a loss as to understand the value of bitcoin.

What does a $600 value represent? Surely somebody doesn't buy bitcoins at some price and see its value fluctuate as per this valuation.. ??

IOW... you exchange your $USDs into bitcoins and their (currency) value fluctuates like this??
More...

It's the same as US Dollars or Euros or Yen or any other currency backed by nothing - its value can be described in terms of other currencies, or what it can buy.
 
Quote from m22au:

It's the same as US Dollars or Euros or Yen or any other currency backed by nothing - its value can be described in terms of other currencies, or what it can buy.
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Doesn't that defy the notion of currency "value"?

The exchange rate of EURO vs $USD fluctuates between 1.2-1.4, but bitcoin fluctuates from 10-600?

If so, that's something other than "currency valuation"??
 
Quote from Scataphagos:

Doesn't that defy the notion of currency "value"?

The exchange rate of EURO vs $USD fluctuates between 1.2-1.4, but bitcoin fluctuates from 10-600?

If so, that's something other than "currency valuation"??
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I think I understand what you're saying - and you're right that currencies other than Bitcoin don't fluctuate as much.

Maybe a better way to think about it is this:

Let's assume that in the year 2024 there is a chance that Bitcoin is used in x% or more of worldwide transactions by value.

Let's assume that the value of Bitcoin in US Dollars, (assuming that the CPI has increased at an average annual rate of 2%) is given by the function BTC (in USD) = x/100 * 1,000,000

If you think that Bitcoin is a crazy fad / bubble, then it's worth something close to zero, and a strong sell.

If you think that Bitcoin is used in more than 99% of transactions, it's worth close to a million USD, and a screaming buy at $600.

It's similar to many disruptive growth stocks, especially biotechs - it could worth a huge amount, or it could be worth very little.
 
Quote from m22au:

I think I understand what you're saying - and you're right that currencies other than Bitcoin don't fluctuate as much.

Maybe a better way to think about it is this:

Let's assume that in the year 2024 there is a chance that Bitcoin is used in x% or more of worldwide transactions by value.

Let's assume that the value of Bitcoin in US Dollars, (assuming that the CPI has increased at an average annual rate of 2%) is given by the function BTC (in USD) = x/100 * 1,000,000

If you think that Bitcoin is a crazy fad / bubble, then it's worth something close to zero, and a strong sell.

If you think that Bitcoin is used in more than 99% of transactions, it's worth close to a million USD, and a screaming buy at $600.

It's similar to many disruptive growth stocks, especially biotechs - it could worth a huge amount, or it could be worth very little.
More...

How can the value of money fluctuate so much? After all, you're changing your $USD into bitcoins for whatever reason. How can they be worth 50X what you paid for them at a later date? If that's really how it works, the risk is HUGE!

It's not like buying value biotech stocks where you hope their business and earnings justifies a big price rise. Bitcoins is just exchanging one currency for another. ??
 
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