Bitcoin became the victim of its own success

[M.W.]

I simply call out your empty claims. If you can't prove anything then your claims are empty and meaningless.

Empty claims? Why be you are so jealous you dont think its possible? What do you want to see, my brokerage statements LOL?

 

[GlobalMacro90]

Reading the article, there is a loan. At $21k, red alerts are going off for the company. Markets have a way of testing you.

This is what I said. They have a loan, at 21K they need to put up more collateral (which they have)

 

[M.W.]

Nonsense. You just handpicked a lookup period. Correlation is strongly positive with US equities and that for over 2 years now. Every quant can confirm that in a heartbeat.

Here I go arguing with the guy who has been bearish since $10...

1. BTC moves with the market, period. Expecting a 100+% is just silly, unless the market rallies 50%. Do you really expect that?

This isn't true. Sure it seems like that right now, but the correlation is a number not a feeling. Here is the rolling 26-week correlation between BTC and the nasdaq. Notice that sometimes its positive (like right now), sometimes its negative.

If you average this, the correlation is basically 0 (very slightly positive). If you take the correlation over this whole time period, its also close to 0.

Now you can argue the correlation permanently changed, but why would that be? Some may say bc institutions are now in, but are they? I think most are still waiting/behind the curve.

 

[GlobalMacro90]

I simply call out your empty claims. If you can't prove anything then your claims are empty and meaningless.

How would you like me to prove it?

 

[newwurldmn]

Do you think that is necessarily so?

yeah. You can’t have a hundred currencies doing different things. One or two has to win everything.

 

[M.W.]

You can't and won't hence I won't be holding my breath.

How would you like me to prove it?

 

[GlobalMacro90]

Nonsense. You just handpicked a lookup period. Correlation is strongly positive with US equities and that for over 2 years now. Every quant can confirm that in a heartbeat.

OK here is rolling 2-years. Has been mildly positive but at times negative. The average here is 0.10 (that's not very correlated). Any other time periods you want me to run?

 

[M.W.]

Again, you just handpicked a look back period to suit your rhetoric. Here is a measure that is more reflective of true correlation

Bitcoin’s Correlation With Big Tech Increases to Record https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...ation-with-big-tech-increases-to-record-chart

It is fair to argue that correlation was lower prior to 2020 but it has been strongly positive almost the entire 2 year period. And the time it broke down was mostly when SPX still held up (into Jan 2022) but btc crashed from its 60k+ highs earlier...

OK here is rolling 2-years. Has been mildly positive but at times negative. The average here is 0.10 (that's not very correlated). Any other time periods you want me to run?

 

[GlobalMacro90]

I simply call out your empty claims. If you can't prove anything then your claims are empty and meaningless.

You can't and won't hence I won't be holding my breath.

Why don't ya just give me a clue of what I can do to prove it? Or if there is nothing I can do, then maybe, just maybe, you are saying this to make yourself feel better

 

[M.W.]

I feel good already, I don't make baseless claims. You are the one who does that. So, it's up to you to prove your claims or simply shut up.

Why don't ya just give me a clue of what I can do to prove it? Or if there is nothing I can do, then maybe, just maybe, you are saying this to make yourself feel better