Bitcoin Bear Market Sentiment Check

G

GlobalMacro90

I would love to hear some of my fellow elite traders thoughts on the current bitcoin market. Bitcoin lovers and bitcoin haters are both welcome to let their opinions known, some simple questions:

1. What will be the low of the current bitcoin bear market?
A) 15-20k (so we likely have seen the low, or close to it)
B) 10-15k
C) less than 10k
D) Bitcoin is finally going to zero this time and will never recover

2. Do you think bitcoin will ever make an all-time high again?
A) yes
B) no

3. If you answered yes to question 2, how long will it take to achieve a new all-time high?
A) <2 years
B) 2-4 years
C) > 4 years
D) N/A, bitcoin will never make a new all time high.

thanks!
 
I'll go first.

I would like to point out that I am neither a bitcoin lover nor a bitcoin hater. There is both good and bad to bitcoin. My job, however, is to leave personal biases out of my predictions as best as I can so as to focus on maintaining profitability.

1. From my perspective, those ranges are (rather remarkably) too tight for this extremely volatile asset. I predict a low between 10k-20k this cycle. If you put a gun to my head, I would choose A) 15-20k, but it's a coin toss.

2. A) Yes, I think it will.

3. New all-time high would be <2 years if the macroeconomic environment hadn't changed (touch the last ATH in approx 12-18 months). Due to inflation and hiking by the FED (and other central banks), I think it might take a little longer than in previous cycles. A more cautious prediction would be B) 2-4 years.
 
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GlobalMacro90 said:
I would love to hear some of my fellow elite traders thoughts on the current bitcoin market. Bitcoin lovers and bitcoin haters are both welcome to let their opinions known, some simple questions:
More...

1. What will be the low of the current bitcoin bear market?
A) 15-20k

2. Do you think bitcoin will ever make an all-time high again?
A) yes

3. If you answered yes to question 2, how long will it take to achieve a new all-time high?
A) <2 years

In the past Bitcoin bear markets, the most frustrating part for me was the wait. There's no way to hurry it up

And there's the case of March 2020 in which a Bitcoin bull market got derailed to very close to the low of the bear market cycle

The only rule in a crypto bear market is to survive with some capital. There will be many opportunities in the next crypto bull market cycle to turn any amount to life-changing value
 
I am not a lover or hater either.

I don't think BTC will ever go to zero but I also think the all time high is so far away it may as well be never.

Without producing cash there is no upward drift. To me, it really is digital gold once people could buy gold again and the frenzy drove it to such a height that it took decades to take out again. The huge bull run created so much mining and supply.

In 5 years I hope people are bored enough with it that the volatility is sucked out so that it can actually function as a currency.
 
nrstrader said:
I am not a lover or hater either.

I don't think BTC will ever go to zero but I also think the all time high is so far away it may as well be never.

Without producing cash there is no upward drift. To me, it really is digital gold once people could buy gold again and the frenzy drove it to such a height that it took decades to take out again. The huge bull run created so much mining and supply.

In 5 years I hope people are bored enough with it that the volatility is sucked out so that it can actually function as a currency.
More...

I personally think we are way more than five years away from this being a usable currency my view is it needs to be a way higher market cap first and hence the volatility needs to stay.

Serious question you say “without producing cash there is no upward drift” but empirically Bitcoin has had just about the strongest upward drift in history in its lifetime. Do you think this is just because of early adoption and it will level out now? Why do you think this last bull run will take so long to be eclipsed but the past bull runs, which were much stronger in percentage terms, were eclipsed within a relatively short time?
 
Crypto remains an ultra-speculative novelty asset with no inherent risk-free return. My sense is that a huge portion of crypto holders continue to expect spectacular, explosive gains in the next "crypto summer" which will, they believe, arrive any day now as though by clockwork.

Suffice it to say that these beliefs won't survive contact with several years of high inflation, and Fed rates at 5% or more. IMO this bear will eventually find a price where the diamond-hands specs will be wiped out, and the vast majority of holders will be price-agnostic, passive-investor rebalancers who can't be pushed out, and will put a floor under the market. I reckon that price is far below current levels, maybe around 5k.
 
I think we are like gold on this chart

gold70s.png


The stock market has an upward drift from producing cash but the very high gold prices causes a ton of mining to occur and then you get this massive over supply that needs to be worked off or needs to wait for a giant structural shift. I just don't know if it is correct to say gold has an upward drift.

I use to have an old gold investing book from the 70s that was my grandfathers and you could basically just swap gold for BTC in the book and it would sound like a crypto investing book written two years ago. I think we forget that gold became a new asset class in the 70s and really sparked people's imagination once it was no longer fixed at $35.

From one of these threads I looked at a guys twitter and he was just posting all day about his passion for BTC. No one is passionate about USD or Yen. Currency is ultimately just a boring subject. Satoshi's paper is only 14 years old so everything is new and shiny. This is a new day though for crypto with zero rates gone and so much mining done at high prices like gold. Most importantly though is the time decay of the narrative that you can get rich from HODL. When people stop believing they can get rich from hording currency people will become less and less passionate about crypto. It just strikes me that people are passionate about this distributed lottery game that has been a side effect of running the currency but nothing lasts forever.

I listened to Balaji Srinivasan on Lex Fridman too and he struck me as a shoeshine boy type moment. 6 hours of completely ridiculous blockchain ideas that are never going to happen. 6 hours of ideas that could just be done easier with any old database and no need for distributed consensus.

I also think ETH moving from proof of work was a giant mistake but I am not sure how this comes out in the wash.

GlobalMacro90 said:
Serious question you say “without producing cash there is no upward drift” but empirically Bitcoin has had just about the strongest upward drift in history in its lifetime. Do you think this is just because of early adoption and it will level out now? Why do you think this last bull run will take so long to be eclipsed but the past bull runs, which were much stronger in percentage terms, were eclipsed within a relatively short time?
More...
 
Only time will tell whether the get-rich-quick narrative still holds for BTC. If it loses the perception of number-always-goes-up, then a lot of folks will abandon it.

But who knows, it could top $1M in a few years. :D
 
nrstrader said:
I think we are like gold on this chart

gold70s.png


The stock market has an upward drift from producing cash but the very high gold prices causes a ton of mining to occur and then you get this massive over supply that needs to be worked off or needs to wait for a giant structural shift. I just don't know if it is correct to say gold has an upward drift.

I use to have an old gold investing book from the 70s that was my grandfathers and you could basically just swap gold for BTC in the book and it would sound like a crypto investing book written two years ago. I think we forget that gold became a new asset class in the 70s and really sparked people's imagination once it was no longer fixed at $35.

From one of these threads I looked at a guys twitter and he was just posting all day about his passion for BTC. No one is passionate about USD or Yen. Currency is ultimately just a boring subject. Satoshi's paper is only 14 years old so everything is new and shiny. This is a new day though for crypto with zero rates gone and so much mining done at high prices like gold. Most importantly though is the time decay of the narrative that you can get rich from HODL. When people stop believing they can get rich from hording currency people will become less and less passionate about crypto. It just strikes me that people are passionate about this distributed lottery game that has been a side effect of running the currency but nothing lasts forever.

I listened to Balaji Srinivasan on Lex Fridman too and he struck me as a shoeshine boy type moment. 6 hours of completely ridiculous blockchain ideas that are never going to happen. 6 hours of ideas that could just be done easier with any old database and no need for distributed consensus.

I also think ETH moving from proof of work was a giant mistake but I am not sure how this comes out in the wash.
More...

fair points the one big difference though that you may be missing is that when a regular commodity goes up in price you are incentivized to mine or produce more of it to sell at said higher price.

Bitcoin is different in the sense that you only get a certain number of bitcoin per block for the winning miner there is no such thing as “mining more” like a regular commodity.
 
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