This just occurred to me. Follow my back of the envelope eureka logic for a moment.
Earlier today I read some technical summaries and debates about the reasons for the fork and who among the miner developer community supports segwit vs cash and the possibilities of a segwit2x in the next few months, so 3 versions of bitcoin... dare i say it but these 3 coins will all trade at par.
From a miners perspective the cost/benefit of mining each coin depends on electricity cost, price of the coin, and algo difficulty. These 3 factors fluctuate relative to one another in such a way that the miners are constantly switching back and forth based on economics, so the relative price SHOULD average out to intrinsic value.
In addition, aside from miners, you also have developers and the user base as the 3 main constituent classes, each with a different economic relationship with the absolute price, similar to the traditional manufacturers, sales contractors and consumers relationship. The effect of the interplay of these 3 constituencies on the relative price is similar to the cost/benefit effect referred to in the above paragraph. The coins will settle at an organic intrinsic relative price based on their UTILITY and COST/BENEFIT to these 3 constituencies.
I am making the leap that the relative prices will be equal, at least for the initial stages of the debt to crypto transition. Once crypto begins to mature then real differences will emerge within the cost/benefit and utility to each bitcoin demographic.
Bcash is at 900(?) right now... BC at 4150... they will trade to par and continue that way. If and when segwit2x occurs the same will happen.
I bought some BITCOINXB SEK and they sent me a missive about the pre aug 8th fork and that they would hold both coins and allow the price to determine their path with the best interests of shareholders in mind. Basically meaning they will just hold the coins and use the main bitcoin as the price reference until the price of bcash is greater than, at which time it will be better for the sponsors of Bitcoin Tracker One to use the higher bcash price as their reference. Why? Because the shares are not shortable. So investors trade for price appreciation. If the Tracker has a relationship with bitcoin/cash that doesn't make economic sense traders and investors would not trade it. so product implosion for the sponsors. Tracker One is an example of a constituent making cost benefit and utility decisions that inevitably end up with the decision to just hold both coins because why? there is no infrastructure to fully utlize their different features, yet.
so they will all trade at par. this is going to guide my trading until proven wrong.
Earlier today I read some technical summaries and debates about the reasons for the fork and who among the miner developer community supports segwit vs cash and the possibilities of a segwit2x in the next few months, so 3 versions of bitcoin... dare i say it but these 3 coins will all trade at par.
From a miners perspective the cost/benefit of mining each coin depends on electricity cost, price of the coin, and algo difficulty. These 3 factors fluctuate relative to one another in such a way that the miners are constantly switching back and forth based on economics, so the relative price SHOULD average out to intrinsic value.
In addition, aside from miners, you also have developers and the user base as the 3 main constituent classes, each with a different economic relationship with the absolute price, similar to the traditional manufacturers, sales contractors and consumers relationship. The effect of the interplay of these 3 constituencies on the relative price is similar to the cost/benefit effect referred to in the above paragraph. The coins will settle at an organic intrinsic relative price based on their UTILITY and COST/BENEFIT to these 3 constituencies.
I am making the leap that the relative prices will be equal, at least for the initial stages of the debt to crypto transition. Once crypto begins to mature then real differences will emerge within the cost/benefit and utility to each bitcoin demographic.
Bcash is at 900(?) right now... BC at 4150... they will trade to par and continue that way. If and when segwit2x occurs the same will happen.
I bought some BITCOINXB SEK and they sent me a missive about the pre aug 8th fork and that they would hold both coins and allow the price to determine their path with the best interests of shareholders in mind. Basically meaning they will just hold the coins and use the main bitcoin as the price reference until the price of bcash is greater than, at which time it will be better for the sponsors of Bitcoin Tracker One to use the higher bcash price as their reference. Why? Because the shares are not shortable. So investors trade for price appreciation. If the Tracker has a relationship with bitcoin/cash that doesn't make economic sense traders and investors would not trade it. so product implosion for the sponsors. Tracker One is an example of a constituent making cost benefit and utility decisions that inevitably end up with the decision to just hold both coins because why? there is no infrastructure to fully utlize their different features, yet.
so they will all trade at par. this is going to guide my trading until proven wrong.
