I knew it was a counter-trend trade, but after the most recent price action I thought a short trade was reasonable. I had 14 MFE and thought about locking in 10 ticks after price didn't approach the last pivot low like I was expecting, but decided to keep the trade at BE+2 (was expecting slip).
Birth of a trader
- Thread starter frank8800
- Start date
I knew it was a counter-trend trade, but after the most recent price action I thought a short trade was reasonable. I had 14 MFE and thought about locking in 10 ticks after price didn't approach the last pivot low like I was expecting, but decided to keep the trade at BE+2 (was expecting slip).
ok.....(I'm not throwin rocks)
I just learned the hard way about fighting trends.
I stored and annotated this for a friend thats just getting started.
simple ma cross and trend line stuff. the sum of the up legs in the cosolidation add up to .45. add that to the breakout # and you get the sum. weird huh? but I guess lots of people already know this.
I just learned the hard way about fighting trends.
I stored and annotated this for a friend thats just getting started.
simple ma cross and trend line stuff. the sum of the up legs in the cosolidation add up to .45. add that to the breakout # and you get the sum. weird huh? but I guess lots of people already know this.
No offence taken - I do have a tendency to buck the trend and do other stupid stuff. Fee free to point out anything you see as dumb. I won't complain.
Quote from risky63:
I stored and annotated this for a friend thats just getting started.
simple ma cross and trend line stuff. the sum of the up legs in the cosolidation add up to .45. add that to the breakout # and you get the sum. weird huh? but I guess lots of people already know this.
I've seen articles where people calculate the length of a run using different methods. Don't know how much of this stuff is real or just plain co-incidence. Just looking at Fib retracements and extensions can leave you amazed at times.
I read one poster on this forum that calculates his target for a trending day by multiplying the size of the opening bar by a number.
If you calculate based on levels that a majority of traders use, it's rather amazing how well it can work. You definitely want to look at channels (flags) following a strong push, especially if the trending move is young. Counter-trend shorts may set up, but if they fail, be ready to enter in the direction of the previous trending move.
Look at previous R becoming S in an uptrend and vice versa in a down trend. The sloppy down channel following the pre-market breakout around 7:10am ET should find support between 97.40 and 97.50. 97.46 held up twice, then price staged a false breakout off lower highs to 97.41 to shake out the weak longs. I was short 97.57 and the fbo took me out b/e. At that point I calculated a measured move target and chose my long entry.
Here's your chart with the measured move calculation I did this morning that happened to coincide with an S/R level I'd noted from bar highs on the 60-min chart (Monday's 5:00am ET bar high was 98.68).
Frank,
Funny you ask her that question⦠for she asked me basically the same a few weeks back when I was holding a loser in LVS
Paraphrasing her (RN you sound like you expected it to fail)
It only sounds like sheâs convinced â when it fact sheâs simply repeating what she is being told â by priceâ¦..
Besides if we were convinced we wouldnât use stops⦠obviously we do
Please never confuse knowing/ being convinced.., with simply repeating⦠(although they do sound similar at times...)
NOD â you agree
RN
The extended, wide, sloppy bull flag with the fbo that shook out the weak longs looking for solid support at previous resistance got me very much wanting to be long. I thought it would happen earlier when previous R seemed to act as S and price was approaching the last high; I bought nearly a high tick of that move and was stopped out for the loss. But the more it went on and the sloppier it got, the more shorts (including me) were lured in.
I looked at my resistance levels to be tested and had noted these off previous 60-min bars:
98.08
98.26
98.48
98.68
The first breakout took the first level. There was hardly any retrace and then price took the next level, but it looked tired and I moved my stop to lock in some profit in case it retraced a lot. Previous R held easily as S and price then took the 3rd level, at which point I locked in more profit (using previous R levels), and then amazingly, it moved right through my target.
The thing about CL is that it tends to run further than you ever think is possible, so using these levels as guides to letting a winner run is quite helpful.
Oh yeah, I firmly believe "Anything can happen", and I'm willing to let the price action show me the money, so to speak
I admit that when I put on this trade I was a bit giddy about the potential. But then, when I chased the earlier long entry I was just as giddy and the trade smacked me upside the head pretty quickly. So this one ran 19 ticks in my favor then retraced below my entry price by a few ticks (my new rule in CL's recent volatility is to let a with-trend trade run at least 20 ticks my way before moving my stop to b/e), and I had that thought that we all have when we take a loss and the next trade shows us a similar profit that can erase the loss and then we watch it come all the way back: "Sh*t, I shoulda just covered my loss and re-evaluated...", but before I could bother for long with that thought, the thing just went on a tear, and I thought, "There you go, anything can happen!"
Amazingly frustrating day. Looking back at CL, a baby could have traded that. Baby yes, moron no.
6E Trade #1
The 60 min chart was up big, but this was a valid setup. What I failed to remember at the time is a failed pullback usually means take the opposite trade, especially when your failed pullback was counter-trend and the opposite was with-trend on the higher time frame. -5 ticks.
6E Trade #2
Tried to get back in the trend. Only had 12 MFE before stop out. +1 tick.
I was writing in my journal and totally missed the next pullback signal. Would have been another BE+1, but still. Need to focus more.
6E Trade #3
Price looked tired and I entered short under a doji that just pierced the EMA. I was expecting price to fall after breaking 1.3868 support, but not very much. That was my signal to go to BE+1 but didn't. Wanted to hold out for more. When price came back up to entry, it fluctuated +/- a tick around entry. Moved to BE-2 to get out. -2 ticks.
CL Trade #1
Nice pullback entry off the 1 min chart, but got shaken out. +1 tick.
CL Trade #2
Really a dumb trade. Price fell to 99.61 support, then made a second attempt. I missed the trade and was feeling frustrated. Clearly that second bounce off of support means no short trades, but this was an anger trade. -8 ticks.
Walked away from my desk for awhile and tried to clear my mind like RN advised. Need more work...
What's really frustrating about this is after reviewing the recording, I was aware of some great trades but didn't take them. Like the trapped traders on the 08:05 bar. In sim, I put a long position on at 100.40 and got a great trade. Or several of the other trades I took in sim that worked out too.
6E Trade #1
The 60 min chart was up big, but this was a valid setup. What I failed to remember at the time is a failed pullback usually means take the opposite trade, especially when your failed pullback was counter-trend and the opposite was with-trend on the higher time frame. -5 ticks.
6E Trade #2
Tried to get back in the trend. Only had 12 MFE before stop out. +1 tick.
I was writing in my journal and totally missed the next pullback signal. Would have been another BE+1, but still. Need to focus more.
6E Trade #3
Price looked tired and I entered short under a doji that just pierced the EMA. I was expecting price to fall after breaking 1.3868 support, but not very much. That was my signal to go to BE+1 but didn't. Wanted to hold out for more. When price came back up to entry, it fluctuated +/- a tick around entry. Moved to BE-2 to get out. -2 ticks.
CL Trade #1
Nice pullback entry off the 1 min chart, but got shaken out. +1 tick.
CL Trade #2
Really a dumb trade. Price fell to 99.61 support, then made a second attempt. I missed the trade and was feeling frustrated. Clearly that second bounce off of support means no short trades, but this was an anger trade. -8 ticks.
Walked away from my desk for awhile and tried to clear my mind like RN advised. Need more work...
What's really frustrating about this is after reviewing the recording, I was aware of some great trades but didn't take them. Like the trapped traders on the 08:05 bar. In sim, I put a long position on at 100.40 and got a great trade. Or several of the other trades I took in sim that worked out too.