Birth of a trader

CL lost its mind today. The T&S and DOM were going crazy. Played on paper for awhile and watched. Nearly every trade I would have taken would have been a full stop or BE. The chart was well behaved, but a much bigger stop was required to trade my setups.

Things quieted down a little. I watched 2 nice trades that were survivable. Reached down the front of my pants to make sure they were still there, then...

CL Trade #1
There was a massive sell off that started to weaken. The 1 min chart gave a textbook pullback entry at 94.90. Was targeting the double bottom at 94.53/94.54 but didn't trust it. Moved to BE+10 after 17 MFE at the end of the entry bar. +10 ticks.

The Euro traded in a narrow, whippy range most of the day. Around 08:00 it looked tired.

6E Trade #1
Took the first clean entry with a survivable stop. Took 6 ticks of heat and waited through 2 more bars before price dropped. +16 ticks.


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Not much to report. In and out of the office today for personal stuff. Phone calls, pesky clients, etc.

CL going crazy again, so I just watched. The late morning looked nice, but wasn't able to trade it. Took 1 trade on 6E that didn't work out. Out BE+1.

Screwed up my video - for some reason it didn't save.
 
Quote from frank8800:

CL going crazy again, so I just watched.
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You've seen "Professional driver on closed course. Do not attempt." disclaimers? CL is currently in that mode, only the course isn't closed :D

If you didn't attain a decent mastery of CL during January's fresh post-holiday volatility, this isn't the environment to practice in with a live account, IMHO.
 
Quote from NoDoji:

You've seen "Professional driver on closed course. Do not attempt." disclaimers? CL is currently in that mode, only the course isn't closed :D

If you didn't attain a decent mastery of CL during January's fresh post-holiday volatility, this isn't the environment to practice in with a live account, IMHO.
More...

Now you tell me...:eek:
 
Got handed a lesson in stop survival. CL still on steroids. I played on sim at first. My first trade moved to BE+1 and I got 3 ticks of slip on the close! My next 2 sim trades netted me 50 ticks, so I decided to lock and load and play for real.

CL Trade #1
After a massive red candle at 06:05, there was a 50% retrace. Timed a perfect entry off the 1 min chart with my 8 tick stop. Got filled, got a retrace of 9 ticks, then a drop of almost 70 ticks. The signal bar was only 12 ticks high. I needed a 14 tick stop on this to have done it right. -8 ticks.

CL Trade #2
Undaunted, I entered short again off the low of a small, gravestone doji. There was a tiny bit of revenge associated with this trade. This would have been a stop out even with a proper stop size. Got 1 tick of slip for my troubles. -9 ticks.

Traded CL 7 more times in sim for a net of -7 ticks. Don't know how realistic the fills were.

I had been focusing so hard on CL I missed a trade in the Euro for a BE.

6E Trade #1
After pushing higher, 6E dropped below the EMA and made a LL. There was a violent push up past the EMA, but the next bar failed to make any headway. The 08:06 bar failed and I entered short under that bar. Trailed my stop down after each bar's close. +8 ticks.

Camtasia is broken - couldn't even start the recording. I'll play with it later if I have time.

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Quote from frank8800:

Got handed a lesson in stop survival. CL still on steroids.

Traded CL 7 more times in sim for a net of -7 ticks. Don't know how realistic the fills were.

I had been focusing so hard on CL I missed a trade in the Euro for a BE.
More...

You need a 20-tick minimum stop and that's if you're using a 1-min chart. If 20- to 30-tick stops affect your trade management, don't trade CL now. Today I had a trade show me 38 ticks profit (2 ticks from my new min target of 40 ticks), then come back to 6 ticks profit before reversing back to my target zone. Later today I had a trade stop me out quickly by just few ticks and I jumped right back in again, considering it nothing more than a noise stop out because my 12-tick stop was too close (should've been 21 ticks, but I was trying to use the 1-min chart to keep it smaller). The re-entry turned into a one way 280-tick move into the close. I thought I was the bees knees for taking 101 ticks of it in about 3 minutes, only to return and see there was no reason for me to have exited. That's the kind of volatility you're dealing with now.

If you use stop orders at major S/R levels, you can be slipped badly; if you use stop orders at minor S/R levels such as bar breaks on the 5-min chart, you'll be slipped less badly. If you use stops order on the 1-min chart (which is the ONLY way I'm using stops to enter trades), you'll get no slippage or small slippage (so far 2 ticks max for me).

If you're comfortable with a wild ride, trade CL like you'll never get to trade it again, because these are the kind of days referred to when people say, "Make hay while the sun shines."
 
1.stop using stops

2. take all indicators off of your charts..price action only on a
3 seconds, 1 minute, 3 or 5 minute chart

3. have a plan and trade it.. get yourself out of the trade instead of using a stop

4. the indicators are indicating you haveno confidence
 
Quote from Totalizator:

1.stop using stops

2. take all indicators off of your charts..price action only on a
3 seconds, 1 minute, 3 or 5 minute chart

3. have a plan and trade it.. get yourself out of the trade instead of using a stop

4. the indicators are indicating you haveno confidence
More...

Well, ... I do have a plan. Admittedly I'm a little gun-shy at times and don't always follow my rules or take every trade, but am working very hard on this. I'm trying to focus on 1 type of setup exclusively and nail it before adding others. For example, on the 6E today there was a very nice failed pullback short that I watched happen. I didn't take it because I removed those setups from my plan.

The only indicators I'm using are a 20 EMA and volume. What others do you see? The numbers in the upper right hand side do some arithmetic for me. They're not indicators.

As far as trading CL without a stop goes - I may be crazy at times, but I'm not stupid. If you trade CL without a stop, I'm not implying you are stupid, but you've got a whole lot more guts than I do!! :D Heck, I even trade 6E with a stop and it's practically a senior citizen compared to CL.
 
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