Binary options...better than 50/50 chance ?

Quote from sle:

It's a part of their business model - when the going gets tough, they try to squeeze a tiny bit more by refusing to pay. Awesome industry.
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yeah... my Uncle has equity share in a small servicing firm out of NYC.. played golf with him all day today.. he is in town for some construction risk convention.. alot of my family is in this business.. I said to him today.. well if perceived risk is going up in nyc then premiums can rise.. and in tern you are happy.. he smiled..

let me ask you this.. why are people so interested in the exotics instead of vanillas? seems to me more like a way that firms can take OTC products or customized/taylored products and make markets in them themselves to retail customers.. exploiting the non fungibility of them. your playing the house in essense.. unless you have some way to exploit model error it seems like a tough game..
 
Quote from sle:

One-sided markets are fairly common in bespoke world and even if the other side is there, nobody expects it to trade (e.g. knock-out options). In the end, no matter what is "bundled into the price" if my model puts the fair value at a premium to the single-sided offer or at a discount to a single-sided bid, I should trade it.
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Right.

I'll amend it to say -

Unless you have your own pricing model or a separate source that tells you exactly what the price should be, do not trade any financial instrument unless you can get quotes for both buying and selling so that you can see the spread.
 
Quote from Surprise:

yes .
They pay 67-70 $ if you risk 85$ on their up/down binaries , but here is a thing , sometimes the long term binaries weekly , monthly strike price get skewed , ie : lets say the EUR is now at 1.27 , the daily strike price is at 1.27 but the monthly strike level is at 1.26 , it happens all the time what you think ?
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For example now at anyoption the Eur monthly barrier is at 1.284 spot 1.2710 and the Yen monthly barrier is at 80.00 spot 79.49 .
 
Out of curiosity, has anyone tried the API on NADEX? The really short dated binaries and call spreads do sound interesting if you have an ability to execute automatically - though getting a meaningful size through would be hard.
 
Quote from sle:

Out of curiosity, has anyone tried the API on NADEX? The really short dated binaries and call spreads do sound interesting if you have an ability to execute automatically - though getting a meaningful size through would be hard.
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I speculate non of these guys on here know anything at that level...
 
Quote from cdcaveman:

yeah... my Uncle has equity share in a small servicing firm out of NYC.. played golf with him all day today.. he is in town for some construction risk convention.. alot of my family is in this business.. I said to him today.. well if perceived risk is going up in nyc then premiums can rise.. and in tern you are happy.. he smiled..

let me ask you this.. why are people so interested in the exotics instead of vanillas? seems to me more like a way that firms can take OTC products or customized/taylored products and make markets in them themselves to retail customers.. exploiting the non fungibility of them. your playing the house in essense.. unless you have some way to exploit model error it seems like a tough game..
More...

Let me know when you can replicate a DNT with vanillas.
 
Any thoughts on the Saxo quotes? They are from last Sunday, spot 1.2717. I know that they are not available in the US and I am not looking at fx atm, but maybe I should?
 
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