This is very interesting and very impressive. Do you mind expand on this a little, like what general principles you use and any analogy to weather forecasting would be greatly appreciated.
Binary options - any pros at all?
- Thread starter blackkey
- Start date
My initial inspiration came from three scriptural passages…
- Prove all things; hold fast that which is good.
- “When evening comes, you say, ‘It will be fair weather, for the sky is red,’ and in the morning, ‘Today it will be stormy, for the sky is red and overcast.’ You know how to interpret the appearance of the sky, but you cannot interpret the signs of the times.
- He said to the crowd: “When you see a cloud rising in the west, immediately you say, ‘It’s going to rain,’ and it does. And when the south wind blows, you say, ‘It’s going to be hot,’ and it is. Hypocrites! You know how to interpret the appearance of the earth and the sky. How is it that you don’t know how to interpret this present time?
The idea is to make market forecasts using an approach similar to that employed by meteorologist when predicting the weather...that is to say, by evaluating precise, up-to-date quantitative information (depicted visually) and then calculating the odds of rates reaching designated values within a given time period.
But instead of monitoring air mass (i.e., humidity, wind speed and direction, barometric pressure, temperature, etc.) I’m evaluating the synergy between such factors as fractals, typical price ranges, trend lines, and support/resistance levels in multiple timeframes. This is meant to simulate the equations, wave functions, and computer models used in weather forecasting.
It all results in a graphical depiction of price patterns (i.e., waves, cycles, and envelopes) that I can then use to help me make precise, well-timed trades...
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It occurs to me that to ask if there are any binary option pros at all might be considered a bit of an oxymoron in that the minimum acceptable reward-to-risk ratio considered acceptable by professional traders is 1:1, with 2:1 or 3:1 being deemed more desirable at the lower end, and this is entirely impossible trading binary options.
Nonetheless, the speed at which one can amass significant returns starting with a minuscule account if trading binary options at an 80% to 90% success rate does have a certain attractiveness, and despite what I wrote previously about coming to rely almost exclusively on five- and one-minute charts, I think there might be a way to use 15- and 60-minute charts for this purpose, risking a decent amount per trade, without depleting one's capital.
I will conclude that this might be true if I can bring by Binary dot com virtual account to above $10,500 and keep going from there, in which case, I may begin looking to move outside the USA in the coming months to resume trading my live account, which would grow much faster than my OANDA Forex account can currently manage. As of June 10th, my demo account balance was at $10,302.24...
Once I actually started trading, I found that as before, the lower-timeframe charts simply provided a much clearer picture of what was going on than 15- and 60-minute charts. So what ultimately ended up happening was I witnessed myself gradually transferring all the elements from the higher-timeframe charts down to the one-minute configuration.
Then trading using the compilation one-minute format, I was able to take advantage of not only massive setups, but of the more subtle price fluctuations as well, and reached my goal of $10,500 after just the first day of trading.
This confirms (for me) the potential of this approach, especially as I continue to practice using it going forward and get better at the decision-making process.
So, I’m going to have to look very seriously at what are my options with respect to relocating outside the USA so I can trade via Binary dot com legally, and start making preparations so I can go ahead with the move if ever and whenever I’m ready.
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You may need to have a non-U.S. passport/national ID as well to withdraw money from Binary dot com, so might be worth checking. As well as what required to get a residency permit in you country of choice. Not terribly hard for Mexico, much harder for EU.
According to Brian J. Millard, one of the five main concepts on which J.M. Hurst’s work was based is that the waves formed by an estimated 23% of price motion which is based on movements that are cyclical in nature can be seen clearly if envelopes are constructed around the movement. (Personally, I believe all motion is cyclical—not just 23%.)
Moreover, I’ve read that it is the position of fractal market hypothesis that technical analysis is possible because one can see fractals, which I understand to be replicating geometric patterns in which prices move through time.
So then, I model fractals by plotting envelopes within envelopes to define the historical frequencies, lengths and/or periods of the various replicating wave patterns in which exchange rates move through time...
...and then I execute trades at the crest or trough of one or more given waves to maximize the probability of their ending with success. I'm essentially quantifying high and low so that I can buy low and sell high.
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This should have said "amplitudes" instead of "frequencies."
If that was true it would be readily apparent if you did a fourier transform of the prices. Back in my electrical engineering days I did quite a bit of experimentation with that. Turns out there isn't anything there. A bunch of people much smarter than me have done more extensive work on the subject and written papers on it. Bottom line is that when you use any rigor to look at this subject, any "waves" you see are simply apophenia.