Quote from Cutten:
From 1995-2000, lots of people said tech and dotcoms were a bubble. Eventually they were right, but they lost a lot of money, and missed out on gigantic low risk profits, by sticking to their ostrich-like view. Meanwhile, more flexible traders and investors made enough to retire or become seriously rich. Quite a few of these TRADERS (not buy and hold morons) also made out like bandits during the bear market, by betting on the collapse too. If and when oil tops and reverses, I fully expect to make a killing on the short side. Meanwhile, premature bears will be mentally and financially exhausted, and will lack the confidence and decisiveness to short the crap out of it and make a second big score on the decline.
This is eliteTRADER.com, not elitevalueinvestor.com, so whether something is overvalued or not is of little concern to us, except to the extent that valuation can offer trading insight. Maybe oil is a bubble - but so what if it is? Being long in a bubble is one of the most profitable opportunities in the markets. Being short in one is one of the most boneheaded and painful.
Your call as to which approach you want to take.