Billions First episode new half season 5

[Pekelo]

First 2 seasons were good, more trading less soap opera. Hopefully this season gets back to trading.

Because that is what the general public wants, to watch more trading.

I stopped watching when they poisoned people to effect the stock. Really? That is going a tad too far for me. That was at the end of season 3 though, IIRC.

The show is obviously a success, otherwise it wouldn't have lasted 5 seasons...

 

[lwlee]

The game is rigged for the bulls. Simple fact, the billions that are automatically poured into SP500 index funds in 401k and IRAs every month just keeps this market up. But it becomes a dangerous game when it's a mindless action. The mantra that the SP500 always will average 8% a year. Some like Michael Burry think they know when it will break but I think it's a slow moving shift to break that cycle. You need a big fundamental shift.

Bulls will kick vol ass.

It has been doing so for hundreds of years. Long it, dude.

 

[Pekelo]

it's a slow moving shift to break that cycle. You need a big fundamental shift.

China will do it with its real estate bubble. Or even crypto could cause a crash.

 

[lwlee]

Chinese real estate? Seems unlikely. How is the US affected by Chinese real estate? The recent turmoil with China stocks was isolated.

Crypto? It's a bubble. Different bubble. Won't do it.

China will do it with its real estate bubble. Or even crypto could cause a crash.

 

[Pekelo]

Chinese real estate? Seems unlikely.
.

Everything is correlated. You didn't think the US housing bubble will screw over Swedish pensions, yet it did. It is kind of complicated, I am not the one to explain, but mark my world.

 

[lwlee]

SP500 make up 500 of the largest companies in the world with a heavy emphasis on tech. There needs to be a real fundamental scare to make the market dive. Right now a 20% drop off of 4535 will be 3628. This is full 200 points higher than the pre-pandemic high.

Pandemic drove the then high 3400 to 2200 which was a 35% dive. Marketwatch, will blare headlines when there is a 200 point drop in the DOW. The equivalent SP500 drop is like 10-15 points? Even though this market is overextended, then needs to be a real shift to make people dump. People have now been CONDITIONED to buy up any kind of a drop. Feels kinda dangerous as it really drives up the valuation for all companies.

Everything is correlated. You didn't think the US housing bubble will screw over Swedish pensions, yet it did. It is kind of complicated, I am not the one to explain, but mark my world.

 

[Pekelo]

We are getting offtopic here, but anyway. The question is, when (and this is a when not an if) China's RE market bursts, can that cause a crises in the US stock market?

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/a...s-so-dangerous-beijing-can-only-watch-it-grow

"More than a decade ago, the American hedge fund manager Jim Chanos said that China was on a “treadmill to hell” because of the economy’s dependence on real estate for growth. Chanos was wide of the mark in his prediction that the property bubble might burst as early as 2010. Yet in the intervening years, the imbalances have only grown more pronounced. While a collapse has been avoided, China is no closer to weaning itself off its real estate addiction. In fact, the dependency appears to have grown."

Anyway, going back to crypto. tether is basically an unauthorized bank. They have 50 B bucks lent out to somewhere, most likely a huge chunk of that is in China. So here is an avalanche:

China's RE market bursts >>> People needs money and cashing out of tether >>> Tether collapses >> Bringing down all cryptos with it >>> Lots of HFs because of their crypto losses start to sell, bringing down the US stock market.

Could that happen? We shall see....

 

[lwlee]

Chinese government has a huge war chest of trillions. A lot of it is/was in US Treasuries. I remember when they were building "ghost" high rise building in anticipation of future businesses. So much wealth and gov't control of the real estate markets, I don't really think there will be a real substantial crash. But hey in the future, any catastrophe I'm sure will be larger than what happened in the past.

Crypto hasn't invaded the general population which is why it won't have a huge impact on the overall markets. Only the tech nerds and really financial savvy are into crypto. If there was a bigger, more pervasive presence of crypto then I might be more worried. I'm talking about something along the lines of a 401k crypto fund like the SP500 passive fund. Cryptos are still too much like penny stock markets or maybe options market. Super high volatility. Average americans don't deal in that gamble. They rather gamble in the casinos.

I remember thinking after 2008 financial meltdown that it would take years for the US markets to recover but boy was I wrong. The overall market ie non-financial, was very strong. it shows the strength and diversity of the US markets.

We are getting offtopic here, but anyway. The question is, when (and this is a when not an if) China's RE market bursts, can that cause a crises in the US stock market?

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/a...s-so-dangerous-beijing-can-only-watch-it-grow

"More than a decade ago, the American hedge fund manager Jim Chanos said that China was on a “treadmill to hell” because of the economy’s dependence on real estate for growth. Chanos was wide of the mark in his prediction that the property bubble might burst as early as 2010. Yet in the intervening years, the imbalances have only grown more pronounced. While a collapse has been avoided, China is no closer to weaning itself off its real estate addiction. In fact, the dependency appears to have grown."

Anyway, going back to crypto. tether is basically an unauthorized bank. They have 50 B bucks lent out to somewhere, most likely a huge chunk of that is in China. So here is an avalanche:

China's RE market bursts >>> People needs money and cashing out of tether >>> Tether collapses >> Bringing down all cryptos with it >>> Lots of HFs because of their crypto losses start to sell, bringing down the US stock market.

Could that happen? We shall see....

 

[Pekelo]

Crypto

Since we still don't know what exactly caused the Flash Crash, pretty much anything can cause or start a meltdown, if the market is ripe for it. So cryptos may not be the fundamental reason for a crash, but they sure can start one...

The US markets were hugely helped by quantitative easing, not necessarily by the fundamental strength of it.

 

[userque]

All the trading contestants were complete amateurs who broke down and essentially got nowhere. Kind of symbolic of all new traders, I suppose.

The show's premise was to train amateurs. So yeah, they were all amateurs.

And no where near 'all' of them broke down.