Billionaire investor on Elizabeth Warren as president: Market might not even open

ETJ

ETJ

Billionaire investor on Elizabeth Warren as president: Market might not even open

Published: Sept 19, 2019 2:39 p.m. ET



‘It would be a bear market and they go on for a year and go down 25%,’ he said.

MW-HR659_warren_20190919135315_ZH.jpg
MarketWatch photo illustration/iStockphoto, Getty Images

By

SHAWNLANGLOIS
SOCIAL-MEDIA EDITOR

‘They won’t open the stock market if Elizabeth Warren is the next president.’
That’s Leon Cooperman, the billionaire boss at Omega Advisors, joking to a crowd at the Delivering Alpha conference in New York this week about what a win for the left could ultimately mean for investors.

He wasn’t joking, however, in his belief that somebody like Elizabeth Warren in the White House would be disastrous for the stock market.

“The Democratic Party seems to be leaning towards the left on policies, which is very harmful for the economy. I don’t like the shift to the left,” he explained to CNBC, adding that the market, of course, will open, but it won’t be pretty.

“It would be a bear market and they go on for a year and go down 25%,” he said. “You don’t make the poor people rich by making rich people poor.”

Of course, as one member of the Financial Twitterati pointed out, fears of a Democrat steering the ship just might be overblown:


Invictus@TBPInvictus
https://twitter.com/TBPInvictus/status/1174732539854036993

So, I went and did the homework. I have no idea what Lee Cooperman is talking about. Seems Clinton and Obama have done best for the markets over the last ~38 years. Or what am I missing?



155
12:10 PM - Sep 19, 2019
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That’s the thing about markets... they’re hard to predict:


Carl Quintanilla

✔@carlquintanilla
https://twitter.com/carlquintanilla/status/1174661936748871686

Stock performance since Election Day, 2016:

* NYTimes: up 135%.
* US Steel: down 56%$NYT $X
(via @TBPInvictus)



228
7:30 AM - Sep 19, 2019
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Warren, who has proposed a wealth tax on assets above $50 million, has been climbing the polls in the packed Democratic presidential field, trailing only former Vice President Joe Biden in the latest NBC/WSJ tally.

“Her policies are counterproductive,” Cooperman said. “They’re negative for capitalism, and capitalism is what brought America into the position we’re in today.” Watch the full interview:

Not much fear in the market Thursday, with the Dow DJIA, -0.59% , S&P SPX, -0.49% and Nasdaq COMP, -0.80% all moving slightly higher.
 
ETJ said:
...
‘It would be a bear market and they go on for a year and go down 25%,’ he said.
..
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Oh SO WHAT? Where was this genius when the NQ dropped just over 20% in 3 months in Q4 of last year? Another blowhard, assholish nonsensical alarmist who does not trade. I hate these guys. 25% is nothing these days. We've had plenty of 10%. What is another 20+%?

Dickhead.
 
clacy said:
There is a less than 1% chance that Warren can win the presidency.

She has the personality of a parrot, so regardless of policy, she’s incapable of winning.
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Actually Warren is only slightly behind gaffe-man Biden and is closing in. If the trend continues, she will be the top candidate in the primaries and will surely end up the Democratic nominee. After that it will be smooth sailing for Warren in the general election against Trump who's approval rating is among the lowest on record. And if we move into a recession in first quarter as many economists have been forecasting, the deal is done.
 
clacy said:
There is a less than 1% chance that Warren can win the presidency.

She has the personality of a parrot, so regardless of policy, she’s incapable of winning.
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odds, how do they work?
 
ETJ said:
Or what am I missing?
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What you are missing is that when Obama took office the market was in a VERY bad place. It would be like High School XYZ bragging that they do a better job of educating students than High School ABC because High School XYZ increased the graduation rate of their pupils by a whopping 100% (from 1% to 2% of the senior class), whereas High School ABC increased the graduation rate of their pupils during the same time period by only a measly 1% (from 99% to 100%). Personally, I would still rather have a child of mine attend High School ABC.

(I don't know what the market situation was like when Clinton took office, and I'm too lazy to look it up.)

The other thing you're missing is that prior to 2008 the Democrats weren't so entirely out of their freaking minds!

Wait, that's a bit offensive and I shouldn't speak so broadly, so let me be a bit more diplomatic. Prior to 2011, you didn't have a Democratic Party that was headed up by a cohort of radical leftist progressives living in a fantasy world in which a man can become a woman simply by saying he's female; where socialism is a good thing even though it wrecks economies like those in Cuba, Venezuela, East Germany, North Korea, etc. (and has even infiltrated and inflicted pain on nations such as Greece and to a lesser extent, Spain); where capitalism is a bad thing even though it has been the bane of poverty worldwide; and where those promoting a fascist, totalitarian, politically correct, social justice agenda in which they tell everyone what they can or cannot buy, can or cannot think, can or cannot say, and can or cannot keep from the fruits of their own labor deem themselves to be the great protectors of democracy.

Fantasy world or not, the reality of the situation is that when you tell hard-working, industrious, wealth-generating capitalists that you are going to take most of their money, they are either going to stop working so hard or they are going to flee to other locations, taking their innovative ideas, productive work ethic, and piles of cash with them while they still have the chance, and this is NOT very likely to be good for our economy.

I believe that this is what you are missing.
 
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I don't see it - this seems alarmist. She's a bad candidate but not because of her policies on the market. In fact, she used to be a Republican. She's anti-saudi (good), she's pro policing the market (good), etc. Overall these kinds of people are just afraid their free bags of money are going away. Trump has been good for the robber barons of wall street who are busy constructing another CDO-collapse but this time with securitized student loans.

expiated said:
Fantasy world or not, the fact of the matter is that when you tell hard-working, industrious, wealth-generating capitalists that you are going to take most of their money,
More...

Are you joking? The 1% is not one iota of "hard working and industrious". Over 80% of their wealth is in capital gains (read: not generating actual useful work for the economy) and where it isn't - it's inherited! Only a fool would look at the 1% and say "yes, that will be me some day" and vote for policies that blow away the middle class (like Trumps "tax cut"). Wake up. We need a VAT or something and a way to get money back from these people capable of buying entire countries out. It isn't capitalism - its an autocracy we live in. Stop fooling yourself. Only a serf talks like you do.
 
German high court in 1995 found wealth tax unconstitutional b/of its confiscatory nature. That makes me wonder how many elite traders will vote Warren?
 
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