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Billion Dollar Trading Losses: Is Biology to Blame?
- Thread starter OnClose
- Start date
in retrospect, so much of human developement has been impeded by nothing more than a complete lack of parsimoniousity.Quote from logic_man:
Bringing quantum physics into the explanation of mental phenomena seems a bit unparsimonious to me and would seem to be the kind of approach that should not be undertaken until all more direct approaches are exhausted.
Quote from logic_man:
Can you define how you are using "paradigm"? I am talking about flesh and blood human existence, the genetic inheritance you get from your parents, etc.
"Paradigm" says to me that you are thinking about some kind of philosophy of science or something. Some of that is interesting, but, frankly, of little use to anyone who isn't getting paid to produce it or the grad students who will get paid to produce the next generation of it.
In other words... Biology makes an attempt to explain everything. It's a view.. a perspective. .
Get it?
Quote from logic_man:
"Paradigm" says to me that you are thinking about some kind of philosophy of science or something. Some of that is interesting, but, frankly, of little use to anyone who isn't getting paid to produce it or the grad students who will get paid to produce the next generation of it.
Get a PhD in Biology and they will give you a Doctorate in Philosophy with emphasis in Biology.
Btw, is it in your "Biology" to argue? Or is it psychological?
Peace.
This is pretty straight forward & it's the stuff booms & busts are made of. Whether you're talking about a firm or an entire market place & all it's participants. Don't over think it too much. Biology/psychology is to blame in that were all wired the same way. It's a progressive cycle & making the assumptiere like Bone said that no one is rogue.
A trader in an institution starts to trade well, he surpasses his peers on the desk, gains attention of his mgmt. He amps it up some and now is knocking the cover off the ball. The cycle continues. He, mgmt, & the investors are now hooked on the returns. Everyones talking about it. There's a buzz. Other firms & traders chatting up too. Maybe an article is written about it etc. No one wants it to stop.
Now he trades even larger. The expectation & the stage is set. Then, numbers do what they do... They revert & do so when that trader has his largest position on. At that moment in time all the players either have a collective "eureka" or it hits the firm like a domino effect. There's a collective WHAT WERE WE THINKING TRADING THAT LARGE.
Who's at fault? All parties listed above as they are ALL biologically/psychologically fallible. They all threw risk metrics to the wind in exchange for more possible reward b/c they were intoxicated by the siren song of greed.
These tail risk events as they say seem to be happening more & more over the last 10 years. That says a lot about market participants & the crowd at large. There's probably
more trades in there somewhere. Crowd is acting a certain. More levered bets, gives more vol, more trading opps. GO GET 'EM, GUYS.
ie JPM takes a huge hit on a levered play. OK, play the short side, then the long side. I'm sure there will be more trades like that to come in various markets. Anyone remember metallgesellschaft?
A trader in an institution starts to trade well, he surpasses his peers on the desk, gains attention of his mgmt. He amps it up some and now is knocking the cover off the ball. The cycle continues. He, mgmt, & the investors are now hooked on the returns. Everyones talking about it. There's a buzz. Other firms & traders chatting up too. Maybe an article is written about it etc. No one wants it to stop.
Now he trades even larger. The expectation & the stage is set. Then, numbers do what they do... They revert & do so when that trader has his largest position on. At that moment in time all the players either have a collective "eureka" or it hits the firm like a domino effect. There's a collective WHAT WERE WE THINKING TRADING THAT LARGE.
Who's at fault? All parties listed above as they are ALL biologically/psychologically fallible. They all threw risk metrics to the wind in exchange for more possible reward b/c they were intoxicated by the siren song of greed.
These tail risk events as they say seem to be happening more & more over the last 10 years. That says a lot about market participants & the crowd at large. There's probably
more trades in there somewhere. Crowd is acting a certain. More levered bets, gives more vol, more trading opps. GO GET 'EM, GUYS.
ie JPM takes a huge hit on a levered play. OK, play the short side, then the long side. I'm sure there will be more trades like that to come in various markets. Anyone remember metallgesellschaft?
Quote from HopelessTrader:
Get a PhD in Biology and they will give you a Doctorate in Philosophy with emphasis in Biology.
Btw, is it in your "Biology" to argue? Or is it psychological?
Peace.
The use of the term "philosophy" in the Ph.D. degree doesn't refer to actual philosophy. In fact, I'd argue that a better title would be "Doctor of Science", as is done with the Bachelor of Science and Master of Science degrees.
Yes, it is my biology that makes me argumentative. I rather enjoy it.
you know, they have pills for that now, you can take them and they will make you very agreeable.Quote from logic_man:
The use of the term "philosophy" in the Ph.D. degree doesn't refer to actual philosophy. In fact, I'd argue that a better title would be "Doctor of Science", as is done with the Bachelor of Science and Master of Science degrees.
Yes, it is my biology that makes me argumentative. I rather enjoy it.
Now me personally, I prefer pot, I don't want to get into it with you about doing things the "natural" way, but take one of those pills and I am sure you will agree.
Quote from HopelessTrader:
Get a PhD in Biology and they will give you a Doctorate in Philosophy with emphasis in Biology.
Btw, is it in your "Biology" to argue? Or is it psychological?
Peace.
there are a number of posters who sign off with the word peace. I suspect they all have one hand behind their backs with a machete in it for those people who disagree with them.