Like the man said, "The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent."
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"Bill Gross thinks things are about to get so bad..."
- Thread starter Stewie
- Start date
Yes. Was that Keynes?Like the man said, "The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent."
He's been saying that the government can't keep printing and get away with it. Since at least 09. And I believe him. Unfortunately I also bought TBT when he said the low 3 percent rates on the ten year weren't sustainable. Right again. They are now closer to two.
I don't really follow him, but I believe you...then again, there are really bright guys like Jim Grant who have probably been saying something similar for 20 years...and then we have all of the commodity bulls who figured that we'd never see crude at these levels in our lifetime's...I just think that the post-2008 financial world is such a mish-mash of conflicting signals and confusion that it's made so many look so foolish...
I had a guy in sep 14 ask me if I wanted a job hauling frac sand. Those guys made stupid money when the market turned between 2010 and 2014. I had a sense the market had turned but never imagined thisI don't really follow him, but I believe you...then again, there are really bright guys like Jim Grant who have probably been saying something similar for 20 years...and then we have all of the commodity bulls who figured that we'd never see crude at these levels in our lifetime's...I just think that the post-2008 financial world is such a mish-mash of conflicting signals and confusion that it's made so many look so foolish...
And I am one of them. When crude hit $90 on the upside I boldly declared that neither me, myself or I (or any member of my family) would ever be short CL ever again. And if I am still long from $140...hey, it's a barrel of oil, it's got to be worth something...Right?I don't really follow him, but I believe you...then again, there are really bright guys like Jim Grant who have probably been saying something similar for 20 years...and then we have all of the commodity bulls who figured that we'd never see crude at these levels in our lifetime's...I just think that the post-2008 financial world is such a mish-mash of conflicting signals and confusion that it's made so many look so foolish...
Oh yeah Jim Grant I forgot. He's right up there with Alan Abelson as far as permabears. My mentor met him and used to exchange their work for free, so I'd see his work often. The thing is, wall street kind of laughs at him cause he's always so bearish, but his work is so solid that they can't completely dismiss him. I guess he was a decent boxer in his day.And I am one of them. When crude hit $90 on the upside I boldly declared that neither me, myself or I (or any member of my family) would ever be short CL ever again. And if I am still long from $140...hey, it's a barrel of oil, it's got to be worth something...Right?
Never wrong, often early
I had a guy in sep 14 ask me if I wanted a job hauling frac sand. Those guys made stupid money when the market turned between 2010 and 2014. I had a sense the market had turned but never imagined this
Yeah, I agree...it's the sort of thing where you look at one market and can't figure out how the other market is where it's at...and that is dangerous...and up until this past week we had the S&P trading around 2100 with crude in the low-mid 30's...then throw currencies into the mix, etc, etc...and I suppose that all of this can lead to the sort of whipsawing we see just about everywhere since the policymakers can have a greater impact with markets that become un-anchored.
I was going to post this somewhere else. I'll post here. It's amazing to me as a trucker how much you can see--in April my dispatcher and owner of co. was having a hard time loading flatbed freight. At a seasonally strong time. I felt right then the economy was in trouble. Anyway, tops take time to develop. There were a couple good entries short. But its all about the straws in the wind.Yeah, I agree...it's the sort of thing where you look at one market and can't figure out how the other market is where it's at...and that is dangerous...and up until this past week we had the S&P trading around 2100 with crude in the low-mid 30's...then throw currencies into the mix, etc, etc...and I suppose that all of this can lead to the sort of whipsawing we see just about everywhere since the policymakers can have a greater impact with markets that become un-anchored.
I was going to post this somewhere else. I'll post here. It's amazing to me as a trucker how much you can see--in April my dispatcher and owner of co. was having a hard time loading flatbed freight. At a seasonally strong time. I felt right then the economy was in trouble. Anyway, tops take time to develop. There were a couple good entries short. But its all about the straws in the wind.
The stock indicies basically ignore the clues for long periods of time and then play "catch up" in a short period of time...Back in 2007-08, there was also a killer short squeeze in the fall that set the stage for 2008...It doesn't help matters that Central banks always stand ready and willing to do "whatever it takes" in an already gutted and increasingly illiquid market...Being a short is like having a target on your back 90% of the time...Reading blogs with people short up to their eyeballs in October was like watching a car wreck in real time...Seriously, some of the moves in stocks off those lows were beyond description...and then in November they start quietly rolling over, etc, etc...just like this past week, the volatility is cranked so high that one minute bars can move more than a day's worth of trading a mere 12 months ago...