Bill Gross has found the 'short of a lifetime' — but you've got to wait until September 2016
- Thread starter dealmaker
- Start date
Saying now "short or long of a lifetime" means nothing.
In march 09, few spoke of a lifetime opportunities.
But in september, october, november 08 : lot of candidates for suicide.
"Lifetime opportunities" appear when :
1 everyone is dead / broke (march 09) and you still got money
2 or it is unknown (CDS subprime)
I will add that noone would trust you if you tell it (real Estate in Miami in 2010).
Shorting the bund? No crisis, well-known, trustable.
Chris Mac
In march 09, few spoke of a lifetime opportunities.
But in september, october, november 08 : lot of candidates for suicide.
"Lifetime opportunities" appear when :
1 everyone is dead / broke (march 09) and you still got money
2 or it is unknown (CDS subprime)
I will add that noone would trust you if you tell it (real Estate in Miami in 2010).
Shorting the bund? No crisis, well-known, trustable.
Chris Mac
no, not random, not at all random, just impossible to predict with any kind of consistent accuracy. When you look at it in the context of history, the price move is certainly not random and can trend very hard longer than many expected.
If you are referring to our great vaunted economists of the day predicting with any consistent accuracy I agree.
If you are referring to traders I do not.
Bond prices (and their inverse interest rates) are no different than any other market.
well, with that I totally agree, especially if your trading doesn't involve predicting.