Bill Clinton: I should have better regulated derivatives

One of the deadliest hurricanes to hit America made ground in Long Island back in the late 30's. Are L.I. property owners paying premiums commiserate with that risk? Hardly.

If you buy a security that's yielding 4% over Treasuries you're making a few assumptions. Most people think if they have a diversified basket (1% of portfolio dedicated to each) that 4 defaults in a year will be no worse than capturing the low Treasury yield. As we all know though-defaults aren't distributed in piecemeal. During a boom cycle defaults are rare but during a bear cycle there's numerous defaults. So it takes around 2 decades of no defaults to fully protect a portfolio from total default. The years are just slots on a roulette wheel. Bears like me thought "the end" would be 1987. It wasn't. Or 1998. Wasn't. 2002. Not then either. In fact those were BOTTOMS. If a credit agency had said in THOSE YEARS to stay away-even though risks were quite apparent-the agencies glum would have cost subscribers billions in profits.

Given that some of the BIGGEST CASUALTIES last year were investment banks with traders far better paid and savvy than the folks working at credit rating agencies-the debate is ridiculous. The research departments at LEH, BSC and MER were certainly as equipped to anticipate meltdown as Moody's. You can trust me when i say Dick Fuld didn't load up because Standard and Poors said it's safe to go in the water........




Quote from trendlover:

You said they did not use logic, hmm, or do they have self interest to rate AAA?
Pabst, insurance in Miami has the risk in the (price). It is high risk of hurricane, and that is known, and the price of insurance pay for that risk. So insurance companys bet (with the price they ask) that if the hurricane happens, they still have made big money for many years to cover the bet and profit. For the same house but in a no hurricane state, the price is less. The risk is (known) But when you put AAA on something that is closer to a junk bond, but people buy it thinking it is AAA, then add leverage, then add side bets (derivatives), then it is not the same openess of risk as knowing where the hurricane is more likely to happen...Miami or New Jersey. And that systemic risk is so big because now the risk is bought and sold in instruments that have no regulation of ratio of money to cover their bet. Now it blows up. Is that capitalism, or is that scheme?
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Pabst, I ask you this because you said you have trading expierence over 20 years, so I think you know that business. I want to understand what happened and why. I have no money in that game of subprime, and have no loss, but want to understand how traders work in capitalism and if what is happened in the last 2 or 3 years is normal boom and bust or corruption in your opinion.
 
If Congress had gone for it HC would've been Universal Health Czar. The defeat made her look silly.....still.

You must be pretty young if you can't remember the Gingrich vs. Clinton budget fights. Clinton caved because he DIDN'T HAVE THE VOTES.

Also, Where do you get your figures about debt, gdp's etc. ARE YOU ON DRUGS? Japan has almost 3 times the debt vs. gdp of America.

Since you're not just a Jew but a Jew who SHAMELESSLY PANDERS FOR ISRAEL don't you feel any duplicity in railing against Bush war deficits for an action that was fought for Israel?

Quote from Mom0/pH0x:

what clinton 'would have been' is highly speculative and irrelevant IMO, it is however a matter of record what he actually was...

national health? he as far as i know there never has been universal healthcare in this country... and yeah, no tell was traditionally a conservative position a la goldwater, who was the last real conservative to ever get the nomination... that's why i liked clinton...

similarities btwn clinton and bush? you mean except for that clinton created the largest trade and budget surplus in history, and bush turned that into the largest trade and surplus deficit in ONE TERM?!

and clinton making us the largest creditor in the world, and bush making us the largest debtor in the world by the end of the second term? or bush making our deficit larger than the world gpd by end of second term? you mean they were alike except for those differences???
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Quote from Pa(b)st Prime:

One of the deadliest hurricanes to hit America made ground in Long Island back in the late 30's. Are L.I. property owners paying premiums commiserate with that risk? Hardly.

If you buy a security that's yielding 4% over Treasuries you're making a few assumptions. Most people think if they have a diversified basket (1% of portfolio dedicated to each) that 4 defaults in a year will be no worse than capturing the low Treasury yield. As we all know though-defaults aren't distributed in piecemeal. During a boom cycle defaults are rare but during a bear cycle there's numerous defaults. So it takes around 2 decades of no defaults to fully protect a portfolio from total default. The years are just slots on a roulette wheel. Bears like me thought "the end" would be 1987. It wasn't. Or 1998. Wasn't. 2002. Not then either. In fact those were BOTTOMS. If a credit agency had said in THOSE YEARS to stay away-even though risks were quite apparent-the agencies glum would have cost subscribers billions in profits.

Given that some of the BIGGEST CASUALTIES last year were investment banks with traders far better paid and savvy than the folks working at credit rating agencies-the debate is ridiculous. The research departments at LEH, BSC and MER were certainly as equipped to anticipate meltdown as Moody's. You can trust me when i say Dick Fuld didn't load up because Standard and Poors said it's safe to go in the water........
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Ok, so Lehman,Bear and others know the risk they buy that is AAA (but not really) with the plan to sell it for profit,(because they can sell it with AAA rating) and they take the risk away from their bank and give to another.(Knowing that they sell junk?) So what happened? They have too much on their books at a time when no one will buy it anymore because everyone start to know it is junk bonds with AAA rating in disguise? That is corrupt to me.
 
It's a normal cycle. Just like brush fire clears the dead waste. When too much capital is released it finds it's way into crap and then bam it's gone. Hopefully new technologies and enlightened
thoughts eventually rise from the ashes. Until it all happens again.....



Quote from trendlover:

Pabst, I ask you this because you said you have trading expierence over 20 years, so I think you know that business. I want to understand what happened and why. I have no money in that game of subprime, and have no loss, but want to understand how traders work in capitalism and if what is happened in the last 2 or 3 years is normal boom and bust or corruption in your opinion.
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Oh please! Clinton couldn't regulate his own dick.

Plus...nobody can regulate markets in anything. To be able to regulate a market, an individual or small collective of individuals would have to know more than all the other market participants combined. If you think that's possible, I have a bridge in brooklyn for you.

If anyone actually figures out how to regulate a market, they won't need government subsidy to do it because it would be so incredibly profitable.
 
To not think that the neo conservatives were not out to stablize the middle east and thereby protect Isreal, is to be very misinformed about the neo cons. Neo cons in public are run by Jews.

the neo cons got luck because bush picked up on their concepts. Attacking Iraq synced well with bush's desires.

The war in Iraq and the whole goal of democratic middle east was a Neo Con policy dreamed up by Jews. (it was a bit utopian - with a 90s twist.)

Don't go calling my a fricken anti semite. Until recently I was a supporter of Isreal.

I still am but much less so. It is my personal stand against the liberals for maligning the one true base of protection and support Jew's had in the world, maybe in history. (protestants who loved the bible and the book of Revelation from truman to now.)

I am not protestant either.
 
Get a clue. You and the entire board know my name. Do you think I would have sent you a PM a couple of years ago with MY NAME if I didn't already know YOUR NAME. (and where you were living :))

It's been almost a HALF DECADE since I traded in Chicago. My chronicles are well known. Do some reading. I make no bones about my difficulty making the transition off the floor. I blew through 5-20k each year from 2000-2005. I then took a fresh 10k in 2/06 and once I stopped scalping and started positioning I have run it up through today into 338k pre-tax gross. I'll compare that return to anyone here.

And it's no secret that I was part of a clearing firm that suffered an astronomical blow out and that my losses were contributory. But what I'd banked prior was banked and although I lost a small fortune I still walked away with enough to live ok. Not what I wanted at the time but in retrospect I came out pretty darn good. When you can tell me you entered a business at 19 without a dime in your pocket and had 2.2 million in cash by 26 then I'll listen to your thoughts on failure.

BTW: My father was not a Chicago "pig". He was a Federal agent. And I was twice elected as a Chicago Ward Committeeman way before I was slated for Congress.

Now I could resort to childish stuff like calling you a commie-kike, just like I've read your posts arguing vehemently against Jesus being a descendant of David. I won't insult some of the great Jewish guys who post here on ET. They don't deserve to be lumped in with sheenies like you who jeopardize Jews and cause antisemitism all by themselves.

And P.S.: If I were a Jew I'd be kissing the ass of the "ignorant, trailer park Christian right" because other than those folks who misguidedly think you're "chosen" the rest of the Asian, African and European world are buying front row seats for Holocaust ll. Only Jews like you could make Muslims sympathetic characters to so many......


Quote from Mom0/pH0x:

what does me being jewish have to do with any of this? typical of you...



you don't know shit about my ethnicity, so if you are going to talk shit, then at least get it right... i am half jewish, and although my fathers line was living in northern italy last i could tell, the DNA is actually scandinavian.. the explanation is that swedish, viking merchants, and even further back, viking raiders were commercially active there...

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Haplogroup_I1_(Y-DNA)

and yes, my mtDNA or mitochondrial DNA is of a distinctively ashkenazi jewish haplogroup...

do i consider myself jewish? absolutely... and i'm rather proud of it...

i don't know what the fuck you mean by "shamelessly panders for israel", i do, however, support israel's right to exist and to defend itself...

you are horribly brainwashed if you believe that the war in iraq was fought for israel... it was fought for your precious right wing extremists business interests AND for it's strategic location on the other side of iran from afghanistan, we have sandwiched iran... that's why the iraq war occurred... and it will actually be very negative for the security of israel long term... your assertion is delusional at best, and misleading at worst...

pabst, i unfortunately can't say im surprised at your lack of class in bringing this horseshit into this discussion... goes to confirm that antisemitism is indeed the snobbery of white trash...i can easily engage in ideological, political, and economic debate without making personal attacks, and remain in the proper realm of discourse... then again i have some class, that helps too... get some fucking class pabst...

you think you know shit about me? you want to get fucking personal with me?

you are a FAILED TRADER who is the son of a FUCKING CHICAGO PIG, who should have had his DEGENERATE BRAINS BLOWN THE FUCK OUT before he had the chance to reproduce...

you don't know who the fuck i am... but i know all about you... i know YOUR NAME, i know all about HOW YOU BLEW OUT AND LOST MONEY HAND OVER FIST IN MAVS OFFICE, i know that you are a failed pit trader who couldn't hack it in the markets once they became REALLY free (electronic)... i know about how when you FIRST FAILED AS A TRADER, you tried (unsuccessfully) to enter politics.. that was before your ABJECT FAILURE AND BLOWOUT trading at mav's office....

you can come on here and lie to noobs and bullshit about your credibility and your "20 years experience" ( 20 years which has mostly been spent blowing out or sitting on the sidelines...) but you can't fool me... and i can smear this whole fucking board with all those facts about you, so that even your last social refuge... your last source of any validation or credibility, an anonymous internet forum, will also be gone...

you want to get fucking personal with me you fucking piece of trailer trash?? let's get fucking personal...
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Quote from Mom0/pH0x:


you are a FAILED TRADER who is the son of a FUCKING CHICAGO PIG, who should have had his DEGENERATE BRAINS BLOWN THE FUCK OUT before he had the chance to reproduce...

you don't know who the fuck i am... but i know all about you... i know YOUR NAME, i know all about HOW YOU BLEW OUT AND LOST MONEY HAND OVER FIST IN MAVS OFFICE, i know that you are a failed pit trader who couldn't hack it in the markets once they became REALLY free (electronic)... i know about how when you FIRST FAILED AS A TRADER, you tried (unsuccessfully) to enter politics.. that was before your ABJECT FAILURE AND BLOWOUT trading at mav's office....

you can come on here and lie to noobs and bullshit about your credibility and your "20 years experience" ( 20 years which has mostly been spent blowing out or sitting on the sidelines...) but you can't fool me... and i can smear this whole fucking board with all those facts about you, so that even your last social refuge... your last source of any validation or credibility, an anonymous internet forum, will also be gone...

you want to get fucking personal with me you fucking piece of trailer trash?? let's get fucking personal...
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Holy shit, now his idiotic statements in thread and others make sense. He really is that stupid.

Thanks for the scoop.
 
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