Bill Ackman, Charlie Rose Interview

Saw the interview also, definitely a smart guy, but have to wonder if his statement about "buying opportunities of a lifetime" isn't a bit premature. I think there is downside yet to come, with at least one test of the 2002/03 lows, and probably some action below that.
 
Well, he said buying opportunities of "his lifetime."

Notice how he kind of looked at the floor while he said it? Therefore I don't trust his "change of administration is good " spin either.

But some of his explanations as to what is happening were impressive.

Probably beneath the scope of some of you immortals, but it impressed the hell out of me.
 
ackman is a terrific analyst. the fact that he is down for the year baffles me, he seems to subscribe to the buffett view 'you cant predict macro', BS, if ackman devoted himself to that he would easly be up 30% YTD short selling and not buying retailers that have 0 chance of going up in the short-run.
 
Quote from Daal:

ackman is a terrific analyst. the fact that he is down for the year baffles me, he seems to subscribe to the buffett view 'you cant predict macro', BS, if ackman devoted himself to that he would easly be up 30% YTD short selling and not buying retailers that have 0 chance of going up in the short-run.
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Value guys don't really short that much. Even when they do, it is kept to a small part of their portfolio. Notice he said he doesn't hang out with HF managers who leverage up. Value guys generally avoid using leverage also.

His time-frame for taking long positions is 5-10 years minimum, a night-and-day difference with any 'Elitetraders'.
 
Quote from Daal:BS, if ackman devoted himself to that he would easly be up 30% YTD short selling
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This year, yes. He'd be blown out of the market during many other periods though when you thought you had to go all in 200% net short because the world is coming to an end - when it didn't. 1990/91, 1994, 1998, 2002/3.
 
Quote from makloda:

This year, yes. He'd be down many other years though when you thought you had to go all in 200% net short and make a bundle. 1990/91, 1994, 1998, 2003.
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sure. but I'm arguing he has the analytical ability to know when 'its different'(plus it doesnt have to be allin), steinhardt was arguing that a while back.
While everyone and their mothers were pilling on methods like 'sp its cheapest since 19xx' 'forward pe of X always leads to X% returns' 'consumer sentiment at lows always leads to X% returns in 12 months'

I cant blame Nassim Taleb for being skeptical about Buffett's record, the frequency of which you see people buying dips in the USA as if it was a 'cant lose' bet is just amazing, meanwhile they rely in entire financial future in a few decades of sample size in a totally non diversified way
 
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