BIIB Options

[ironchef]

https://www.biospace.com/article/in...biogen-s-alzheimer-s-data-reveal-on-thursday/

I looked at the data published so far, seemed comparable to or better than Aricept so I think their Alzheimer's study to be published tomorrow will be encouraging and FDA approval likely. I bought some options this morning when the market opened.

 

[SteveM]

Hope you make a fortune....I am always tempted to get involved in these situations but the implied vol usually scares me away.

 

[destriero]

lol have you seen the data made public in October? When it rallied 30?

 

[ironchef]

lol have you seen the data made public in October? When it rallied 30?

I read their published data on aducanumab up through Oct. Not earthshaking but positive. In view of all the failures on Alzheimer's drug trials over the past two decades, the FDA might give them a pass.

 

[ironchef]

Hope you make a fortune....I am always tempted to get involved in these situations but the implied vol usually scares me away.

Thank you, I am already profitable. Should I get out and call it a day, or keep it?

If you look at BIIB IV, for DTE > ~30 the IV is actually quite stable for the past few trading days => mostly it is the underlying that affects option prices.

 

[ironchef]

lol have you seen the data made public in October? When it rallied 30?

By the way that one was impossible to predict or envision unless you have insider information. This time the probability and outlook can be assessed based on past published data and projection into the future.

 

[ironchef]

Yesterday morning BIIB was @ ~$285 at its low. It is @ ~$300 now.

 

[destriero]

The BIIB Dec13 280/295/310 fly is a great buy here at 5-5.3.

 

[easymon1]

options this morning

Is there a way to look back and watch this daytrade unfold on call option with 40 - 50 delta?
Thx

 

[ironchef]

Is there a way to look back and watch this daytrade unfold on call option with 40 - 50 delta?
Thx

You should be able to track it using your broker's platform.

Am I going to show you my trades, short answer is no. I posted this thread mainly as food for thought.

From my observation playing one time event, (example: recent CELG/BMY merger) for short DTE and ~ATM option, IV drops after the event, coupled with time decay the outcome is already priced into the option. If you don't believe me, take a look at BIIB ATM options expiring 12-13 (@destriero's example). On 12-2-19: strike $292.5 ATM call @$11.5 mid. Today at close strike $292.5 now ITM call @$10.05 mid. You actually lost money.

I did not trade the option I mentioned above.