You are using an out of date browser. It may not display this or other websites correctly.
You should upgrade or use an alternative browser.
You should upgrade or use an alternative browser.
Biggest Squeeze in history is looming
- Thread starter panamaorange
- Start date
Quote from panamaorange:
This next run up is it. It will be a move so directional, so long lasting--it will literally knock a number of bear blogs off the internet. I didn't see bear sentiment this thick during the march 2009 lows
find me one blog or analyst that isnt bearish or cautious over the last 2 weeks.
This oil leak is not being properly reported or fixed. Combined with escalating korean and Iran geopolitical tension--we WILL see oil return to 110 or above..
There is absolutely no way in Hell we don't at least retest dow 12k or above, if an oil squeeze occurs. Virtually every XLB XLB MOO component will have a vicious squeeze.
Clean tech, food, and Bric nations will lead this next run up. When speculators realize that this oil situation will lead to a PERMANENT freeze in offshore drill expansion--they will pounce. The fact that the euro is about to squeeze to 1.40-ish will only worsen the situation
I was thinking close to the same thing.
A close below yesterdays open would concern me, but not surprise me. IMO you are buying at a discount currently. We had to seriously test the 200 Daily MA at some point in this rally.
I am guessing 1350 on SP500 this year then 1-2 years of non trending markets in a 200 pt range.
Quote from Specterx:
It's a bit surreal to be talking about bargain hunting, "cheap" assets, and oversold conditions when the market in general is substantially overvalued, even given current business fundamentals. And then, I happen to believe we're in a secular bear market that has years left to run - something which the public has yet to accept. We came close in 2008-09 but the government stimulus, ZIRP etc. has kept the party going for a bit longer. This is a consequence of dire structural problems in the global economy.
So we may well have a short squeeze, technical bounce etc. etc. - but S&P 1300? I'm not betting on it. Certainly the recent price action is a whole different animal than the previous insta-declines, and suggests that things are rolling over.
GLAD to see that someone on this thread understands whats happened,happening and end up going...
The nubies have a lot to learn.
Quote from panamaorange:
This next run up is it. It will be a move so directional, so long lasting--it will literally knock a number of bear blogs off the internet. I didn't see bear sentiment this thick during the march 2009 lows
find me one blog or analyst that isnt bearish or cautious over the last 2 weeks.
This oil leak is not being properly reported or fixed. Combined with escalating korean and Iran geopolitical tension--we WILL see oil return to 110 or above..
There is absolutely no way in Hell we don't at least retest dow 12k or above, if an oil squeeze occurs. Virtually every XLB XLB MOO component will have a vicious squeeze.
Clean tech, food, and Bric nations will lead this next run up. When speculators realize that this oil situation will lead to a PERMANENT freeze in offshore drill expansion--they will pounce. The fact that the euro is about to squeeze to 1.40-ish will only worsen the situation
stop trading immediately. Give it up you are done. save what is -left of your mothers money...or -give it to me. Just stop Now.
Quote from traderNik:
Was it the price of oil that triggered the 'global economic collapse'? Are you sure?
I believe so, but we won't know for sure until there is more time/space to look back on it.
Debt is only a problem if you can't outgrow it - the oil bull clamped growth in all the wrong places. We'll have a better sense of cause/effect after the next doubling, only a theory until then.
lol, which technicals are on the bull's side? Care to elaborate, because I see NONE. Not a single one.
Quote from ksmetana:
We tested the flash bottom, we didn't break through. We are way oversold. That flash crash really messed things up, now that the technicals are back on the bull's side, it's game time.
Welcome to the next bull market! The correction is over
I am not sure last week low was a short term bottom. but the indicators give a hint to a fea days to a week to find a bottom. Copy & pastethe below and hit in your browser ,you may be closer to an answer rather an oracle!!
http://stockcharts.com/scripts/php/candleglance.php?$VIX,$NAHGH,$NYSI,$NAMO,$SPXA50,$RHNYA,$NDXA50,$OEXA50,$BPENER,$BPSPX|C|I30,15
http://stockcharts.com/scripts/php/candleglance.php?$VIX,$NAHGH,$NYSI,$NAMO,$SPXA50,$RHNYA,$NDXA50,$OEXA50,$BPENER,$BPSPX|C|I30,15
also concur with the previous poster. At the same time I welcome opposing views because their margin liquidations will eventually hand those who re-short this market a windfall profit. I am very curious how SPX will perform around its 200 DMA. Also any break in 1.25 EURUSD will make me sell this pair again.
Anyone who talks of a break of the previous resistance levels in equities looks to be slightly removed from reality. 2 years later we will look back and know that Greece in April/May 2010 has only been the beginning of the crash in Europe. So far nothing spectacular happened, exactly the same story when Bear Sterns went under.
Anyone who talks of a break of the previous resistance levels in equities looks to be slightly removed from reality. 2 years later we will look back and know that Greece in April/May 2010 has only been the beginning of the crash in Europe. So far nothing spectacular happened, exactly the same story when Bear Sterns went under.
Quote from louispino:
GLAD to see that someone on this thread understands whats happened,happening and end up going...
The nubies have a lot to learn.
oil trades like an asset class these days, not strictly the fundamentals, look back at the last pullback around February, equities pulled back on financial reform talk, so did oil, then they both went on to put in higher highs.
The probabilities are on the side of a nice retracement next week for all asset classes except treasuries.
It is a tougher call on whether we put in higher highs for all these asset classes, however, one benificial outcome of this European debt scare, is that this means the fed will wait even longer to raise rates, probably too long, which means we probably will put in higher highs in all these markets come the year end potfolio manager`s number push.
Trade Setups:
For me I will be long the July CL contract next week, they pushed it up nicely in electroni trading right before the close, so it opens green, gaps up at least .20 cents at the open Sunday night, and then does a stairstepper climb into Europe`s open. I expect the Euro to gap open above 126 as well Sunday night, and start moving higher.
The trade setup was to buy Cl when it was being pushed down to around the 69.70 level, or equities right before 20 minutes to the close--that was a gift for anybody who didn`t buy right at the open on Friday, you got a second chance as Cl finished 70.55, and equities exploded into the close.
For Sunday night if my analysis is correct (and I could be wrong - this isn`t a perfect science-) but you try to read patterns, interpret market moves, and make your best judgement as to where you think the market moves next. So if one is not already positioned, the trade setup is to buy, equities, commodities, all risk assets at the open, and ride the momentum up, it appears that it will be one of those rally`s where you just keep moving your stops up locking in your profits along the way.
Where do you take profits, too early to tell, but you want to catch the big moves next week, you don`t want to take profits too quick in my opinion, let your winners ride next week, with stops in place to at least lock in small gains in case something spooks the bulls to take quick profits. But you should defintely be able to make some good money by buying futures sunday at 5:00 cst and riding monday`s "Mutual Fund Monday" buying spree, as according to my analysis a bunch of new positions get initiated next week in lots of asset classes, and sure they could get spooked and take profits 2 days later, but by all accounts, they should at least initiate these new positions in a big way on Monday.
I am sorry but with the fed giving money away at zero percent interest rates, you can only hide out in tresuries for so long, til others test the bottom for you, then you feel safe when the retest holds so strongly (money managers) and you get your ass back in the market and make some real money for your portfolio.
The probabilities are on the side of a nice retracement next week for all asset classes except treasuries.
It is a tougher call on whether we put in higher highs for all these asset classes, however, one benificial outcome of this European debt scare, is that this means the fed will wait even longer to raise rates, probably too long, which means we probably will put in higher highs in all these markets come the year end potfolio manager`s number push.
Trade Setups:
For me I will be long the July CL contract next week, they pushed it up nicely in electroni trading right before the close, so it opens green, gaps up at least .20 cents at the open Sunday night, and then does a stairstepper climb into Europe`s open. I expect the Euro to gap open above 126 as well Sunday night, and start moving higher.
The trade setup was to buy Cl when it was being pushed down to around the 69.70 level, or equities right before 20 minutes to the close--that was a gift for anybody who didn`t buy right at the open on Friday, you got a second chance as Cl finished 70.55, and equities exploded into the close.
For Sunday night if my analysis is correct (and I could be wrong - this isn`t a perfect science-) but you try to read patterns, interpret market moves, and make your best judgement as to where you think the market moves next. So if one is not already positioned, the trade setup is to buy, equities, commodities, all risk assets at the open, and ride the momentum up, it appears that it will be one of those rally`s where you just keep moving your stops up locking in your profits along the way.
Where do you take profits, too early to tell, but you want to catch the big moves next week, you don`t want to take profits too quick in my opinion, let your winners ride next week, with stops in place to at least lock in small gains in case something spooks the bulls to take quick profits. But you should defintely be able to make some good money by buying futures sunday at 5:00 cst and riding monday`s "Mutual Fund Monday" buying spree, as according to my analysis a bunch of new positions get initiated next week in lots of asset classes, and sure they could get spooked and take profits 2 days later, but by all accounts, they should at least initiate these new positions in a big way on Monday.
I am sorry but with the fed giving money away at zero percent interest rates, you can only hide out in tresuries for so long, til others test the bottom for you, then you feel safe when the retest holds so strongly (money managers) and you get your ass back in the market and make some real money for your portfolio.