Biggest Net Short by Commercials in Recent Memory
- Thread starter UrmaBlume
- Start date
A crowded trade needs some "decompression" 
truehawk,
With regard to the nite session, your observation is most astute. We too believe that the nite session is very often predicts the nature of trade during the day session.
If you overlay a day time frame bar chart of the day session in one color over a bar of the entire session in another color you will see that in the majority of the days that the part of the nite session not "covered" by the day session acts as what Peter Steidlmayer used to call a tail of rejection and it drives the day session as shown in the chart below.
There are several other, more technical, indicators of nite session sentiment and those can be read from an application we built to train our guys which is also shown below.
In answer to your question about "TL" - Sometime ago I made some posts here to ET that were of similar content and quality to this thread, this thread and this thread. The content of the posts immediately drew the ire of those posters with many, many posts, most of which where content free, off topic and management did nothing. So many contributors left ET and like me went to "TL" which is Traders Laboratory.
This time the experience here on ET has been entirely different. Management here realizes the value of "real" content and is quick to delete, in accordance with ET's terms of service, all such off-topic, content free and harassing posts. I applaud this effort by ET management and hope to rejoin those who contribute to the ET community.
In this chart please note the "red" tail on the day before yesterday's sell off.
In this shot of our HUD taken about an hour before today's (09/02) open you can see the buying that is just starting to meet the way above average volume and strong overnite selling:
Please show a SINGLE instance where anything LEADS price. (Make sure you are not confused and post something that "leads" the previous price rotation...since that would make your anything actually lagging more than one full cycle).
I will not hold my breath waiting. I'm going to boil my white rice and wash my underwear instead, while you find your magnificent chart showing the unknown and unknowable future.
The reason most traders see so few leading indicators is that most of the indicators available to the public are calculated with price as either the only or the most heavily weighted input. These indicators can not lead price because they are based on price and thus can't change until AFTER price changes.
There are more than a few technically astute operators and developers who have built, formulated and use LEADING indicators. Most are constructed using such predictive technologies as gentetically optimized neural networks or heavy duty regression systems such as MARS (Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines).
In addition to our work with the intelligent agents described above we have built other LEADING indicators. The one shown below is an index of weighted biases.
In the screen capture shown below the bars, of course, are price. The lines are JMAs and the dots are one of our indexes of weighted biases. To formulate these indexes the values from each higher time/volume frame are calculated, stored in a global variable and collected by the lower time frame used for execution.
In the chart below the bottom axis is time so occurrences to the left come before/lead those to the right.
Please note the JMA lines are to the right of the price bars which means they LAG price and that the dots are to the left of price which means they came before and thus LEAD price.
Quote from UrmaBlume:
The reason most traders see so few leading indicators is that most of the indicators available to the public are calculated with price as either the only or the most heavily weighted input. These indicators can not lead price because they are based on price and thus can't change until AFTER price changes.
There are more than a few technically astute operators and developers who have built, formulated and use LEADING indicators. Most are constructed using such predictive technologies as gentetically optimized neural networks or heavy duty regression systems such as MARS (Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines).
In addition to our work with the intelligent agents described above we have built other LEADING indicators. The one shown below is an index of weighted biases.
In the screen capture shown below the bars, of course, are price. The lines are JMAs and the dots are one of our indexes of weighted biases. To formulate these indexes the values from each higher time/volume frame are calculated, stored in a global variable and collected by the lower time frame used for execution.
In the chart below the bottom axis is time so occurrences to the left come before/lead those to the right.
Please note the JMA lines are to the right of the price bars which means they LAG price and that the dots are to the left of price which means they came before and thus LEAD price.
It's obvious from your chart that at about 12:09 price completely ignored your "leading" indicator turning up (a momentum indicator in a higher time frame?) and kept moving down. You need to try harder, if you want to sell anything...a simple RSI works better or the same...
Back to meditation.
First you go to all the trouble of starting a new thread with this, then as soon as it gets bagged........
Forgive me if Im missing something here........
ok, but still how do you know its an outright short position and not a hedge on a cash portfolio?