The Fed undertakes QE2 Initiative â States goal to raise asset prices
Assets trade as a group: Equities, Silver, Gold, Oil, Gas, Corn, Soybeans
The US Dollar is used as a carry trade with such low fed funds rate (0-.25%)
The Fed encourages investors to take more risk: Go out of safe assets like bonds, and go into riskier assets like commodities and stocks.
When traders take on more risk, they use more leverage-This means shorting the dollar, as part of the carry trade like a funding bank, to use these additional funds (leverage) to invest in risk assets like Gold, Silver, Oil and Dow Stocks.
The trade starts to work, reinvest profits to buy more risk assets.
Strong Trends emerge, attracting other traders looking to capitalize on trending markets.
Technical Analysis confirms the validity of the trade âThe trade becomes self-reinforcing .
The dollar is shorted more for leverage, other currencies strengthen against the dollar
Dovish Fed talk serves to reinforce the trade further, dollar weakens more.
OH NO! The US Dollar is falling apart, fear spreads: Investors really buy Commodities as an inflation hedge.
Other countries like China start worrying about a falling US Dollar: They hedge by investing in Commodities.
Higher Commodities = Higher Input Costs for Businesses and Consumers.
Results in Lower Business Margins and Less Consumer Discretionary Income .
Higher costs, lower profits, less consumption, less goods being sold and produced .
Lower GDP Growth Rate as a result of QE2 once the US Dollar reaches critical level where commodity prices rise to the breaking point where businesses and consumers pull back.
QE2 Actually damaging the economy right now.
Currency Crisis Looming.
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Enough said,
oh well, who is John Galt?